ON Semiconductor carries excellent free cash flow conversion of 223% relative to net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, but 51% of revenue comes from the automotive end-market creating concentration risk, the most recent quarter produced a large earnings miss of -121%, and the stock trades 24% above its analyst price target.
Thesis pillars
- Automotive Revenue Concentration→Stable
- Fcf Conversion Piotroski Quality→Stable
- Target Exceeded Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Stock Analysis
Technology · Semiconductors
Sell if holding. At $91.51, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market (51.0%); Weak growth.
onsemi designs and sells intelligent power and sensing semiconductors across three segments—PSG (47%), AMG (38%), and ISG (15%)—primarily serving automotive (51% of 2025 revenue) and industrial (28%) customers globally. Revenue comes from semiconductor product sales to... Read more
Sell if holding. At $91.51, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market (51.0%); Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About ON Semiconductor Corporation
About ON Semiconductor Corporation
onsemi's three-segment revenue split in 2025 placed the Power Solutions Group at 47%, the Analog and Mixed-Signal Group at 38%, and the Intelligent Sensing Group at 15%, with automotive customers accounting for 51% of total revenue. One distributor accounted for approximately 11% of total 2025 revenue. The company completed a restructuring in early 2025, terminating approximately 2,400 employees and recording $496 million in non-cash impairment charges on manufacturing equipment at certain facilities.
onsemi sells silicon carbide power devices, MOSFET and GaN switches, CMOS image sensors, and analog mixed-signal ICs through distributors—54% of 2025 revenue—and direct OEM accounts. Automotive electrification and industrial automation drive most PSG and ISG demand, while the AMG segment targets AI data center power management through the Treo Platform and Vcore technology licensed from Aura Semiconductor in October 2025. Third-party contract manufacturers handled about 34% of total manufacturing input costs in 2025, with onsemi's own front-end fabs in Oregon, Czech Republic, South Korea, Japan, and Malaysia absorbing the remainder. PSG competitors include Infineon Technologies, STMicroelectronics, Wolfspeed, ROHM Semiconductor, and Nexperia BV. In January 2025, onsemi acquired the SiC JFET technology business from Qorvo for $118.8 million, extending its silicon carbide portfolio for AI data center power supply units.
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onsemi's 80%-owned Leshan-Phoenix Semiconductor joint venture in China performs assembly and test operations, with onsemi committed to purchase 80% of the facility's capacity in 2026—a utilization level maintained through 2023, 2024, and 2025. The 10-K notes the U.S. Department of Commerce may expand the restricted entity list or impose additional export license requirements for products shipped to Chinese customers, while bilateral tariff escalation could simultaneously raise input costs at the Leshan facility and limit sales in China. These two exposure channels—supply-side manufacturing and demand-side revenue—share the same geopolitical trigger.
See also: Technology · Semiconductors
From ON Semiconductor Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — ON Semiconductor Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS How ON Semiconductor More Than Doubled NVIDIA’s Gains in April - 24/7 Wall St. — 24/7 Wall St. positive
- NEWS Panamanian REIT Casas Grandes lists on stock exchange - Leaders League — Leaders League neutral
- NEWS ON Semiconductor Stock Jumps as Geely and NIO Deals Put 900V EV Chips in Focus - TechStock² — TechStock² positive
- NEWS Is Navitas Semiconductor Stock Trapped By Its Own Valuation? - Forbes — Forbes neutral
- NEWS Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning ON Semiconductor Stock In The Last 15 Years - Sahm — Sahm positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerautomotive end-market51%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales into the automotive and industrial end-markets represented approximately 51% and 28% of our revenue, respectively, for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWCustomertop distributor11%10-K Item 1: 'one distributor whose revenue accounted for approximately 11%...of the total revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited highly specialized third-party suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We are also dependent upon a limited number of highly specialized third-party suppliers for required components and materials for certain of our key technologies'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUMSimon Keeton, Group President Power Solutions Group, agreed to resign all employment positions effective June 30, 2026; stepped down from all officer roles immediately. To remain through June 30 for orderly transition to new PSG head. No successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOWKeeton's last employment day extended from June 30 to September 30, 2026 to support orderly transition to his successor as head of Power Solutions Group. No other officer changes.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $91.51, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market (51.0%); Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $84.83. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $101.81 (+11.6% upside). Prior stop was $84.83. Stop-loss: $84.83.
Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market (51.0%); Weak growth.
ON Semiconductor Corporation trades at a P/E of 67.1 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
43 analysts cover ON with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $113.
What does ON Semiconductor Corporation do?onsemi designs and sells intelligent power and sensing semiconductors across three segments—PSG (47%), AMG (38%), and...
onsemi designs and sells intelligent power and sensing semiconductors across three segments—PSG (47%), AMG (38%), and ISG (15%)—primarily serving automotive (51% of 2025 revenue) and industrial (28%) customers globally. Revenue comes from semiconductor product sales to distributors (54%) and direct OEM customers, with manufacturing operations across the U.S., Czech Republic, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Philippines.