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MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.Buy Now7.0·$1261.08
Buy NowModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Monolithic Power Systems has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats, a wide economic moat, and 26% revenue growth, but trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 54.8x that exceeds analyst targets, leaving the risk-reward unfavorable at current prices despite strong underlying business quality.

Thesis pillars

  • Semiconductor Moat Growth↑Improving
  • Earnings Beat Execution→Stable
  • Rich Valuation Above Target↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy NowGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Buy now at $1261.08. A.R:R 2.2:1 at $1261.08 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $1583.96 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$323 per share to target. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells fabless analog and mixed-signal power management ICs across storage/computing (26%), enterprise data (25%), automotive (21%), and other end markets, with 4,501 employees worldwide. The company generates revenue through distributors,... Read more

$1261.08+25.6% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#4 of 52 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield0.63%(5y avg 0.62%)Payout41.65%sustainable
Entry $1261.08(at market)Stop $1172.80Target $1583.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst consensus$1820.64+44.4%14 analysts with price targets
$1583.96our TP
$1261.08price
$1820.64mean
$2100

Buy now at $1261.08. A.R:R 2.2:1 at $1261.08 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $1583.96 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$323 per share to target. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.91, quality 9.1/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=technology 7/10 self excluded). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 4, 2026

Recent Developments — Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.

Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:01Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Feb 4, 202791d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.1 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)69.1
P/E (Fwd)27.2
Mkt Cap$61.5B
EV/EBITDA51.8
Profit Mgn23.9%
ROE24.5%
Rev Growth63.1%
Beta1.73
Dividend0.63%
Analysts with ratings23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.66bullish
IV68%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesMomentum 7.0>=5.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Technology 7/10 self excludedRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1126.57Resistance $1416.62

Price Targets

$1173
$1261
$1584
A.Upside+25.6%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.8%
Max %3.5%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts with ratings23
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$1821

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-04 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPWR stock a buy right now?

Buy now at $1261.08. A.R:R 2.2:1 at $1261.08 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $1583.96 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$323 per share to target. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.91, quality 9.1/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $1583.96 (+25.6%), stop $1172.80 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MPWR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1583.96 (+25.6% upside). Target $1583.96 (+25.6%), stop $1172.80 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Stop-loss: $1172.80.

What are the risks of investing in MPWR?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is MPWR overvalued or undervalued?

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 69.1 (forward 27.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Strong Buy.

What do analysts say about MPWR?

23 analysts rate MPWR, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 14 analysts publish price targets averaging $1821.

What does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. do?Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells fabless analog and mixed-signal power management ICs across...

Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells fabless analog and mixed-signal power management ICs across storage/computing (26%), enterprise data (25%), automotive (21%), and other end markets, with 4,501 employees worldwide. The company generates revenue through distributors, with 92% of sales to customers in Asia in 2025.

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