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Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $1461.87. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $1572.62. Engine's entry $1461.87 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia customers (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing partners.

Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless global semiconductor company designing high-performance power ICs for storage/computing (26.3% of 2025 revenue), enterprise data (25.2%), automotive (21.2%), and other markets, with over 4,500 employees. The company sells primarily to Asian... Read more

$1572.62+11.9% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#31 of 45 Semiconductors
Entry $1461.87(Rr Min Solve Sticky)Stop $1346.75Target $1628.55(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$1417.57-9.9%14 analysts
$1628.55our TP
$1572.62price
$1417.57mean
$1000
$1650

Wait for pullback to $1461.87. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $1572.62. Engine's entry $1461.87 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia customers (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing partners. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val1.8Qual7.5Grw3.9Mom4.9Sent5.9Ins3.3Peer5.7Tech4.5Risk5.04.8OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia customers (92.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing partners
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)119.0
P/E (Fwd)58.8
Mkt Cap$75.0B
EV/EBITDA94.4
Profit Mgn22.3%
ROE19.2%
Rev Growth20.8%
Beta1.48
Dividend0.52%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.97neutral
IV82%elevated
Max Pain$420-73.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicAsia customers92%
    10-K Item 1A: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, 92% of our total revenue was from customers in Asia'
  • HIGHSupplierChina manufacturing partners
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our manufacturing, testing, assembly and packaging capacity comes from key suppliers located in China'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-27Item 4.02HIGH
    Audit Committee determined the 2024 Form 10-K and all 2025 Form 10-Q financial statements should no longer be relied upon due to an unintentional error. Restatement forthcoming. No change to Q1 2026 business outlook.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-05Item 5.02HIGH
    CFO Bernie Blegen notified the Board on February 3, 2026 of his intention to retire from his EVP and Chief Financial Officer position. No successor named in available text.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
1.9
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
4.0
Forward P/E: 58.8xPEG: 2.47Expensive valuation

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
7.7
Strong growth: 21% YoY
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
71 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $1071.89Resistance $1661.79

Price Targets

$1347
$1462
$1629
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R-1.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.6% upside)
! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPWR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $1461.87. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $1572.62. Engine's entry $1461.87 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia customers (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing partners. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $1628.55 (+3.6%), stop $1346.75 (−16.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MPWR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1628.55 (+11.9% upside). Target $1628.55 (+3.6%), stop $1346.75 (−16.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $1346.75.

What are the risks of investing in MPWR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia customers (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing partners; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is MPWR overvalued or undervalued?

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 119.0 (forward 58.8). TrendMatrix value score: 1.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MPWR?

25 analysts cover MPWR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $1418.

What does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. do?Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless global semiconductor company designing high-performance power ICs for...

Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless global semiconductor company designing high-performance power ICs for storage/computing (26.3% of 2025 revenue), enterprise data (25.2%), automotive (21.2%), and other markets, with over 4,500 employees. The company sells primarily to Asian customers (92% of revenue) and manufactures through facilities and partners concentrated in China.

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