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ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $100.61 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market customers (51.0%).

ON Semiconductor (onsemi) designs and manufactures intelligent power and sensing semiconductors for automotive (51% of 2025 revenue), industrial (28%), and other markets including AI data centers. The company operates three segments—Power Solutions Group, Analog and Mixed-Signal... Read more

$100.61-1.3% A.UpsideScore 3.7/10#45 of 45 Semiconductors
Stop $93.52Target $99.22(resistance)A.R:R -2.2:1
Analyst target$74.14-26.3%29 analysts
$99.22our TP
$100.61price
$74.14mean
$56
$115

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $100.61 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market customers (51.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market customers (51.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.7% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)340.9
P/E (Fwd)24.4
Mkt Cap$38.9B
EV/EBITDA22.6
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE1.5%
Rev Growth-11.2%
Beta1.52
DividendNone
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.46bullish
IV86%elevated
Max Pain$35-65.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerautomotive end-market customers51%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales into the automotive and industrial end-markets represented approximately 51% and 28% of our revenue, respectively, for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • LOWCustomertop distributor customer11%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We had one customer, a distributor, whose revenue accounted for approximately 11% and 10% of the total revenue for the years ended 2025 and 2024, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Simon Keeton (Group President, Power Solutions Group) agreed to resign from all officer positions immediately and from employment effective June 30, 2026 to support orderly transition. No successor named for head of Power Solutions Group.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -11.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -11%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.5
Value Rank
3.1
Quality Rank
3.2
GatesA.R:R -2.2=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
88 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $59.72Resistance $101.25

Price Targets

$94
$99
A.Upside-1.4%
A.R:R-2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-33.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $100.61 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market customers (51.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $93.52. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

What is the ON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $99.22 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $93.52. Stop-loss: $93.52.

What are the risks of investing in ON?

Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market customers (51.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.7% away).

Is ON overvalued or undervalued?

ON Semiconductor Corporation trades at a P/E of 340.9 (forward 24.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ON?

44 analysts cover ON with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $74.

What does ON Semiconductor Corporation do?ON Semiconductor (onsemi) designs and manufactures intelligent power and sensing semiconductors for automotive (51% of...

ON Semiconductor (onsemi) designs and manufactures intelligent power and sensing semiconductors for automotive (51% of 2025 revenue), industrial (28%), and other markets including AI data centers. The company operates three segments—Power Solutions Group, Analog and Mixed-Signal Group, and Intelligent Sensing Group—selling through direct customer relationships and a leading distributor accounting for ~11% of revenue.

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