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ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.91 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

ON Semiconductor (onsemi) designs and manufactures intelligent power and sensing semiconductors for automotive (51% of 2025 revenue), industrial (28%), and other markets including AI data centers (21%), operating through PSG (47% of revenue), AMG (38%), and ISG (15%) segments.... Read more

$107.91+6.7% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#35 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.01%
Stop $101.77Target $116.72(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$103.62-4.0%29 analysts
$116.72our TP
$107.91price
$103.62mean
$68
$125

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.91 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — ON Semiconductor Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)80.5
P/E (Fwd)25.7
Mkt Cap$42.5B
EV/EBITDA21.4
Profit Mgn9.5%
ROE7.5%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta1.94
DividendNone
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV76%elevated
Max Pain$69-36.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertop distributor11%
    10-K Item 1: 'We had one distributor whose revenue accounted for approximately 11% and 10% of the total revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Simon Keeton (Group President, Power Solutions Group) agreed to resign from all employment positions effective June 30, 2026; stepping down from officer positions immediately. No successor named for PSG leadership.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.6
Quality Rank
4.7
Value Rank
4.9

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.7
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $84.75Resistance $119.10

Price Targets

$102
$117
A.Upside+8.2%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.91 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $101.77. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the ON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $116.72 (+6.7% upside). Prior stop was $101.77. Stop-loss: $101.77.

What are the risks of investing in ON?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ON overvalued or undervalued?

ON Semiconductor Corporation trades at a P/E of 80.5 (forward 25.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ON?

44 analysts cover ON with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $104.

What does ON Semiconductor Corporation do?ON Semiconductor (onsemi) designs and manufactures intelligent power and sensing semiconductors for automotive (51% of...

ON Semiconductor (onsemi) designs and manufactures intelligent power and sensing semiconductors for automotive (51% of 2025 revenue), industrial (28%), and other markets including AI data centers (21%), operating through PSG (47% of revenue), AMG (38%), and ISG (15%) segments. It sells to direct customers and distributors, with one distributor accounting for approximately 11% of 2025 revenue.

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