ON Semiconductor carries excellent free cash flow conversion of 223% relative to net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, but 51% of revenue comes from the automotive end-market creating concentration risk, the most recent quarter produced a large earnings miss of -121%, and the stock trades 24% above its analyst price target.
Thesis pillars
- Automotive Revenue Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Fcf Conversion Piotroski Quality→Stable
- Target Exceeded Negative Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 9, 2026· older than 90 days
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Stock Analysis
Technology · Semiconductors
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $71.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market (51.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
onsemi designs and sells intelligent power and sensing semiconductors across three segments—PSG (47%), AMG (38%), and ISG (15%)—primarily serving automotive (51% of 2025 revenue) and industrial (28%) customers globally. Revenue comes from semiconductor product sales to... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $71.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market (51.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 95d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.
About ON Semiconductor Corporation
About ON Semiconductor Corporation
onsemi's three-segment revenue split in 2025 placed the Power Solutions Group at 47%, the Analog and Mixed-Signal Group at 38%, and the Intelligent Sensing Group at 15%, with automotive customers accounting for 51% of total revenue. One distributor accounted for approximately 11% of total 2025 revenue. The company completed a restructuring in early 2025, terminating approximately 2,400 employees and recording $496 million in non-cash impairment charges on manufacturing equipment at certain facilities.
onsemi sells silicon carbide power devices, MOSFET and GaN switches, CMOS image sensors, and analog mixed-signal ICs through distributors—54% of 2025 revenue—and direct OEM accounts. Automotive electrification and industrial automation drive most PSG and ISG demand, while the AMG segment targets AI data center power management through the Treo Platform and Vcore technology licensed from Aura Semiconductor in October 2025. Third-party contract manufacturers handled about 34% of total manufacturing input costs in 2025, with onsemi's own front-end fabs in Oregon, Czech Republic, South Korea, Japan, and Malaysia absorbing the remainder. PSG competitors include Infineon Technologies, STMicroelectronics, Wolfspeed, ROHM Semiconductor, and Nexperia BV. In January 2025, onsemi acquired the SiC JFET technology business from Qorvo for $118.8 million, extending its silicon carbide portfolio for AI data center power supply units.
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onsemi's 80%-owned Leshan-Phoenix Semiconductor joint venture in China performs assembly and test operations, with onsemi committed to purchase 80% of the facility's capacity in 2026—a utilization level maintained through 2023, 2024, and 2025. The 10-K notes the U.S. Department of Commerce may expand the restricted entity list or impose additional export license requirements for products shipped to Chinese customers, while bilateral tariff escalation could simultaneously raise input costs at the Leshan facility and limit sales in China. These two exposure channels—supply-side manufacturing and demand-side revenue—share the same geopolitical trigger.
See also: Technology · Semiconductors
From ON Semiconductor Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — ON Semiconductor Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on ON Semiconductor, Lowers Price Target to $80 — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS Why is ON Semiconductor stock sliding today? - Investing.com — Investing.com Nov 2, 2026 negative
- NEWS ON Semiconductor Corp. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS ON Semiconductor Corp. (ON) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key Facts - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS ON Semiconductor Falls 5%, NXP Semiconductors Drops 4% as Soft Guidance Revives Auto Chip Worries; Skyworks Ticks Up, Qu — 24/7 Wall St. Oct 28, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerautomotive end-market51%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales into the automotive and industrial end-markets represented approximately 51% and 28% of our revenue, respectively, for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWCustomertop distributor11%10-K Item 1: 'one distributor whose revenue accounted for approximately 11%...of the total revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited highly specialized third-party suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We are also dependent upon a limited number of highly specialized third-party suppliers for required components and materials for certain of our key technologies'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUMSimon Keeton, Group President Power Solutions Group, agreed to resign all employment positions effective June 30, 2026; stepped down from all officer roles immediately. To remain through June 30 for orderly transition to new PSG head. No successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOWKeeton's last employment day extended from June 30 to September 30, 2026 to support orderly transition to his successor as head of Power Solutions Group. No other officer changes.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $71.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market (51.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $66.55. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $88.70 (+24.5% upside). Prior stop was $66.55. Stop-loss: $66.55.
Concentration risk — Customer: automotive end-market (51.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.
ON Semiconductor Corporation trades at a P/E of 42.4 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
38 analysts rate ON, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 25 analysts publish price targets averaging $99.
What does ON Semiconductor Corporation do?onsemi designs and sells intelligent power and sensing semiconductors across three segments—PSG (47%), AMG (38%), and...
onsemi designs and sells intelligent power and sensing semiconductors across three segments—PSG (47%), AMG (38%), and ISG (15%)—primarily serving automotive (51% of 2025 revenue) and industrial (28%) customers globally. Revenue comes from semiconductor product sales to distributors (54%) and direct OEM customers, with manufacturing operations across the U.S., Czech Republic, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Philippines.