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FICOFair Isaac CorporationBuy Wait6.5·$1186.24+0.39%
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Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Wait for pullback to $1053.63. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $1186.24. Engine's entry $1053.63 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%).

Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytics software and credit scoring through two segments — Scores and Software — with the FICO Score serving as the standard consumer credit risk measure in the U.S. Revenue is heavily concentrated in financial services (92% of fiscal 2025),... Read more

$1186.24+19.0% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#6 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.67%
Entry $1053.63(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $930.02Target $1374.75(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.5:1Setup A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$1527.50+28.8%20 analysts
$1374.75our TP
$1186.24price
$1527.50mean
$707
$2400

Wait for pullback to $1053.63. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $1186.24. Engine's entry $1053.63 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.79, quality 9.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Fair Isaac Corporation

About Fair Isaac Corporation

Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax collectively accounted for 51% of Fair Isaac Corporation's total revenues in fiscal 2025, up from 41% in fiscal 2023, making the three U.S. consumer reporting agencies FICO's dominant distribution channel. Financial services customers represented 92% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, with the Americas generating 87% of total revenue globally. FICO Platform's annual recurring revenue reached $263.6 million, representing 35% of total software ARR.

FICO earns revenue through two segments. The Scores segment distributes FICO Scores — used in most U.S. credit decisions by nearly all major banks, credit card issuers, mortgage lenders, and auto loan originators — primarily through the three consumer reporting agencies, which pay FICO a per-score fee each time a lender queries a score. The Software segment sells analytics and decision management software, including FICO Platform, as multi-year SaaS or on-premises subscriptions priced on usage metrics such as account or transaction volume. Demand for credit scoring ties closely to macroeconomic conditions — including U.S. mortgage origination and credit card application volumes — which directly affect transaction-based Scores revenue. VantageScore, a joint venture of the three major consumer reporting agencies, competes directly with FICO's scoring products, meaning the company's largest distribution partners are simultaneously its most direct competitors.

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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac historically required U.S. lenders to submit FICO Scores with mortgages delivered for purchase — a structural revenue driver for the Scores segment. However, in July 2025 the FHFA Director announced that mortgage originators may now choose the credit score model they submit, a policy change that could weigh on Scores segment revenue if lenders shift to VantageScore or other alternatives. The 10-K also notes the consumer reporting agencies' own scoring venture creates a conflict in which FICO's largest distributors are simultaneously its most direct scoring competitors.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Fair Isaac Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.5
P/E (Fwd)21.7
Mkt Cap$27.4B
EV/EBITDA26.5
Profit Mgn33.7%
ROE
Rev Growth38.7%
Beta1.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$2950+148.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerExperian, TransUnion and Equifax51%
    10-K Item 1: 'revenues generated from our agreements with Experian, TransUnion and Equifax collectively accounted for 51% ... of our total revenues'
  • HIGHCustomerbanking industry92%
    10-K Item 1A: 'During fiscal 2025, 92% of our revenues were derived from sales of products and services to the banking industry'
  • HIGHGeographicAmericas87%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest geographic market is the Americas, representing 87% of our total revenue during fiscal 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerFannie Mae and Freddie Mac
    10-K Item 1A: 'Fannie Mae ... Freddie Mac ... a requirement by those enterprises that U.S. lenders provide FICO® Scores for each mortgage delivered to them'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
2.4
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
3.5
Obv
5.3
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1124.46Resistance $1323.35

Price Targets

$930
$1054
$1375
A.Upside+15.9%
A.R:R1.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FICO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $1053.63. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $1186.24. Engine's entry $1053.63 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.79, quality 9.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $1374.75 (+15.9%), stop $930.02 (−27.5%), Setup A.R:R 3.4:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FICO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1374.75 (+19.0% upside). Target $1374.75 (+15.9%), stop $930.02 (−27.5%), Setup A.R:R 3.4:1. Stop-loss: $930.02.

What are the risks of investing in FICO?

Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%); Negative momentum.

Is FICO overvalued or undervalued?

Fair Isaac Corporation trades at a P/E of 37.5 (forward 21.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FICO?

29 analysts cover FICO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $1528.

What does Fair Isaac Corporation do?Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytics software and credit scoring through two segments — Scores and Software — with...

Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytics software and credit scoring through two segments — Scores and Software — with the FICO Score serving as the standard consumer credit risk measure in the U.S. Revenue is heavily concentrated in financial services (92% of fiscal 2025), with Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax collectively representing 51% of total revenues as distributors of the FICO Score.

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