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Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 1 day (2026-05-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $8.71 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers... Read more

$8.45+33.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#10 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield36.10%
IncomeYield2.13%Payout32.86%sustainable
Entry $8.71(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $8.15Target $10.83(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.3:1
Analyst target$12.45+47.3%14 analysts
$10.83our TP
$8.45price
$12.45mean
$17

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $8.71 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.1Qual7.0Grw6.3Mom1.9Sent7.7Ins5.0Peer6.6Tech6.4Risk6.86.3OVERALL

Recent Developments — Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.0 in RISK_OFF)
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.6
P/E (Fwd)10.1
Mkt Cap$8.8B
EV/EBITDA37.5
Profit Mgn35.3%
ROE11.2%
Rev Growth0.6%
Beta0.29
Dividend2.13%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$3-70.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dA.R:R 4.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
44 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.30Resistance $9.35

Price Targets

$8
$9
$11
A.Upside+28.2%
A.R:R4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YMM stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $8.71 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $10.83 (+28.2%), stop $8.15 (−3.7%), Setup A.R:R 4.8:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YMM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.83 (+33.2% upside). Target $10.83 (+28.2%), stop $8.15 (−3.7%), Setup A.R:R 4.8:1. Stop-loss: $8.15.

What are the risks of investing in YMM?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is YMM overvalued or undervalued?

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. trades at a P/E of 13.6 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about YMM?

19 analysts cover YMM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. do?Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects...

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers freight matching services, such as freight listing and brokerage services; and transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software solutions, electronic toll collection, Intelligent Driving Related Services, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.

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