Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the YMM stock price target?

Take-profit $10.85 (+27.0% upside). Target $10.85 (+27.0%), stop $7.98 (−7.0%), A.R:R 4.1:1.

Q: What are the risks of investing in YMM?

Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum; Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA.

Q: Is YMM overvalued or undervalued?

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about YMM?

19 analysts cover YMM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $12.

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Negative momentum.

$8.54+27.0% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#9 of 96 Software - Application

Stop $7.98Target $10.85(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.1:1

Analyst target$12.48+46.1%13 analysts

$10.85our TP

$8.54price

$12.48mean

$16

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Attractive valuation

Analyst upside: 27%

Risks

Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Negative momentum

Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4

P/E (Fwd)9.9

Mkt Cap$8.7B

EV/EBITDA36.9

Profit Mgn35.3%

ROE11.2%

Rev Growth0.6%

Beta0.28

Dividend2.16%

Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

IV78%elevated

Max Pain$3-70.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.115%1.21

Quality6.915%1.03

Growth6.315%0.94

Momentum3.910%0.39

Sentiment7.010%0.70

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank6.710%0.67

Technical Setup3.95%0.20

Risk Profile6.35%0.32

Catalyst5.65%0.28

Overall (Σ contributions)6.25

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Ma Position

4.0

Rsi

4.5

Obv

4.8

Macd

6.2

Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

2.3

Support Resistance

4.6

Bollinger

4.7

GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate

RSI

57 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.97Resistance $9.02

Price Targets

$11

A.Upside+27.0%

A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-20 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is YMM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $10.85 (+27.0%), stop $7.98 (−7.0%), A.R:R 4.1:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YMM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.85 (+27.0% upside). Target $10.85 (+27.0%), stop $7.98 (−7.0%), A.R:R 4.1:1. Stop-loss: $7.98.

What are the risks of investing in YMM?

Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is YMM overvalued or undervalued?

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about YMM?

19 analysts cover YMM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. do?Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects...

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers freight matching services, such as freight listing and brokerage services; and transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software solutions, electronic toll collection, Intelligent Driving Related Services, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.