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YMMFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.Hold6.8·$8.65+0.82%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Full Truck Alliance is a high-quality Chinese freight-matching platform with 33% net margins, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and a Rule of 40 score of 41, trading at a forward P/E of 9.9x with 34% analyst upside, though a confirmed death-cross downtrend and elevated put-to-call ratio of 5.5 reflect near-term institutional caution.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Margins Rule Of 40Stable
  • Death Cross Downtrend HeadwindImproving
  • Attractive Valuation Peer LeadingStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers... Read more

$8.65+30.4% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#8 of 122 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield66.46%
IncomeYield3.92%Payout45.70%sustainable
Stop $8.09Target $11.28(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.7:1
Analyst target$12.53+44.9%15 analysts
$11.28our TP
$8.65price
$12.53mean
$16

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 16, 202671d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$9.0B
EV/EBITDA-3.0
Profit Mgn33.0%
ROE10.4%
Rev Growth4.4%
Beta0.23
Dividend3.92%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$10+15.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.5
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.22Resistance $9.70

Price Targets

$8
$11
A.Upside+30.4%
A.R:R4.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-16 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YMM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $11.28 (+30.4%), stop $8.09 (−6.9%), A.R:R 4.7:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YMM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.28 (+30.4% upside). Target $11.28 (+30.4%), stop $8.09 (−6.9%), A.R:R 4.7:1. Stop-loss: $8.09.

What are the risks of investing in YMM?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is YMM overvalued or undervalued?

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about YMM?

20 analysts cover YMM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. do?Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects...

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers freight matching services, such as freight listing and brokerage services; and transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software solutions, electronic toll collection, Intelligent Driving Related Services, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.

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