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Dave Inc. (DAVE) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $250.80. At $262.90 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $250.80 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Evolve and Coastal bank partners; Thin upside margin: 6.3%.

Dave Inc. is a U.S.-focused neobank offering ExtraCash (overdraft up to $500 with no interest or credit check), fee-free demand deposit accounts, and financial management tools through a mobile app, serving 19M+ Members since inception. Revenue is earned via a mandatory 5%... Read more

$262.90+11.9% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#1 of 96 Software - Application
Entry $250.80(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $218.41Target $279.38(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$321.13+22.1%8 analysts
$279.38our TP
$262.90price
$321.13mean
$347

Wait for pullback to $250.80. At $262.90 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $250.80 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Evolve and Coastal bank partners; Thin upside margin: 6.3%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.05, quality 8.5/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Evolve and Coastal bank partners
Thin upside margin: 6.3%
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.0
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA17.9
Profit Mgn35.3%
ROE73.1%
Rev Growth62.4%
Beta3.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV95%elevated
Max Pain$120-54.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierEvolve and Coastal bank partners
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on agreements with Evolve and Coastal, our two bank partners, to provide ExtraCash and other deposit accounts'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    Dave Inc. and CEO Jason Wilk amended his employment agreement on February 25, 2026, modifying severance terms for termination without cause outside change-of-control periods. No officer departure; compensatory arrangement modification only.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $164.86Resistance $287.69

Price Targets

$218
$251
$279
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R0.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DAVE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $250.80. At $262.90 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $250.80 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Evolve and Coastal bank partners; Thin upside margin: 6.3%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.05, quality 8.5/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $279.38 (+6.3%), stop $218.41 (−20.4%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DAVE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $279.38 (+11.9% upside). Target $279.38 (+6.3%), stop $218.41 (−20.4%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $218.41.

What are the risks of investing in DAVE?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Evolve and Coastal bank partners; Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is DAVE overvalued or undervalued?

Dave Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.0 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about DAVE?

16 analysts cover DAVE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $321.

What does Dave Inc. do?Dave Inc. is a U.S.-focused neobank offering ExtraCash (overdraft up to $500 with no interest or credit check),...

Dave Inc. is a U.S.-focused neobank offering ExtraCash (overdraft up to $500 with no interest or credit check), fee-free demand deposit accounts, and financial management tools through a mobile app, serving 19M+ Members since inception. Revenue is earned via a mandatory 5% overdraft fee, monthly membership fees, and interchange/ATM fees; over $22B in ExtraCash has been provided to date.

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