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Dave Inc. (DAVE) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Wait for pullback to $232.27. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $235.69. Engine's entry $232.27 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Evolve; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Dave Inc. is a US neobank offering ExtraCash (up to $500 fee-based overdraft credit via bank partners), a fee-free Dave Checking account, and personal financial tools targeting Americans living paycheck to paycheck. Revenue comes from a mandatory 5% overdraft service fee,... Read more

$235.69+26.9% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#1 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.82%
Entry $232.27(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $200.24Target $295.69(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1Setup A.R:R 4.3:1
Analyst target$339.88+44.2%8 analysts
$295.69our TP
$235.69price
$339.88mean
$365

Wait for pullback to $232.27. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $235.69. Engine's entry $232.27 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Evolve; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.12, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Dave Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Evolve
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.3
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA14.4
Profit Mgn37.2%
ROE111.6%
Rev Growth46.7%
Beta3.94
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV72%elevated
Max Pain$115-51.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyEvolve
    10-K Item 1A: 'currently the substantial majority of our Members' accounts are with Evolve, and we therefore remain reliant on Evolve for the substantial majority of our ExtraCash originations and receivables'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    Amendment to CEO Jason Wilk's employment agreement on Feb 25, 2026, updating termination benefit provisions for non-cause terminations outside a change-in-control window. Compensatory arrangement only; no departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $225.00Resistance $285.39

Price Targets

$200
$232
$296
A.Upside+25.5%
A.R:R1.9:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts16
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$340

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DAVE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $232.27. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $235.69. Engine's entry $232.27 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Evolve; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.12, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $295.69 (+25.5%), stop $200.24 (−17.7%), Setup A.R:R 4.3:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DAVE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $295.69 (+26.9% upside). Target $295.69 (+25.5%), stop $200.24 (−17.7%), Setup A.R:R 4.3:1. Stop-loss: $200.24.

What are the risks of investing in DAVE?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Evolve; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is DAVE overvalued or undervalued?

Dave Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.3 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about DAVE?

16 analysts cover DAVE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $340.

What does Dave Inc. do?Dave Inc. is a US neobank offering ExtraCash (up to $500 fee-based overdraft credit via bank partners), a fee-free Dave...

Dave Inc. is a US neobank offering ExtraCash (up to $500 fee-based overdraft credit via bank partners), a fee-free Dave Checking account, and personal financial tools targeting Americans living paycheck to paycheck. Revenue comes from a mandatory 5% overdraft service fee, monthly $3 membership, and interchange on the Dave Debit Card.

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