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Klaviyo, Inc. Series A (KVYO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Shopify (77.9%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Klaviyo is a B2C CRM platform providing marketing automation, customer service, and analytics for consumer companies, with over 193,000 customers and $1,234M in revenue in 2025 (+31.6% YoY). Revenue comes from tiered subscriptions priced on active consumer profiles and message... Read more

$14.60+78.9% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#13 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.52%
Stop $13.67Target $26.30(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.3:1
Analyst target$29.23+100.2%22 analysts
$26.30our TP
$14.60price
$29.23mean
$37

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Shopify (77.9%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Klaviyo, Inc. Series A

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 5, 2026 HIGH Item 5.02: CFO Amanda Whalen informed company of intention to step down, effective August 21, 2026, to pursue a new role. Company initiated formal search for new CFO; Whalen will move to advisory role through November 16, 2026. No successor named. No disagreement cited.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Shopify (77.9%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)14.1
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA-120.1
Profit Mgn-0.7%
ROE-0.8%
Rev Growth27.9%
Beta0.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C6.00bearish
IV69%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyShopify78%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77.9% of our ARR was derived from customers who also use Shopify Inc.'s (and together with certain of its affiliates, "Shopify") platform'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-05Item 5.02HIGH
    CFO Amanda Whalen informed company of intention to step down, effective August 21, 2026, to pursue a new role. Company initiated formal search for new CFO; Whalen will move to advisory role through November 16, 2026. No successor named. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
5.2
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.53Resistance $23.52

Price Targets

$14
$26
A.Upside+80.1%
A.R:R5.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KVYO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Shopify (77.9%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $13.67. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KVYO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.30 (+78.9% upside). Prior stop was $13.67. Stop-loss: $13.67.

What are the risks of investing in KVYO?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Shopify (77.9%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is KVYO overvalued or undervalued?

Klaviyo, Inc. Series A trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KVYO?

30 analysts cover KVYO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Klaviyo, Inc. Series A do?Klaviyo is a B2C CRM platform providing marketing automation, customer service, and analytics for consumer companies,...

Klaviyo is a B2C CRM platform providing marketing automation, customer service, and analytics for consumer companies, with over 193,000 customers and $1,234M in revenue in 2025 (+31.6% YoY). Revenue comes from tiered subscriptions priced on active consumer profiles and message volume; approximately 77.9% of ARR is from customers who also use Shopify's platform.

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