At a PEG of 0.79 with 39% revenue growth and a quality profile in the top tier of software companies, the fundamental case is compelling — but a confirmed price downtrend and a death cross in place argue for waiting on technical confirmation before entering.
Thesis pillars
- Hypergrowth At Discount To Growth→Stable
- Customer Concentration Revenue Risk↓Deteriorating
- Elite Software Quality Franchise→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock Analysis
Temporary headwind edge
Technology · Software - Application
Wait for pullback to $1190.04. At $1247.87 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $1190.04 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%).
Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytics software and credit scoring through two segments — Scores and Software — with the FICO Score serving as the standard consumer credit risk measure in the U.S. Revenue is heavily concentrated in financial services (92% of fiscal 2025),... Read more
Wait for pullback to $1190.04. At $1247.87 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $1190.04 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.84, quality 9.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About Fair Isaac Corporation
About Fair Isaac Corporation
Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax collectively accounted for 51% of Fair Isaac Corporation's total revenues in fiscal 2025, up from 41% in fiscal 2023, making the three U.S. consumer reporting agencies FICO's dominant distribution channel. Financial services customers represented 92% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, with the Americas generating 87% of total revenue globally. FICO Platform's annual recurring revenue reached $263.6 million, representing 35% of total software ARR.
FICO earns revenue through two segments. The Scores segment distributes FICO Scores — used in most U.S. credit decisions by nearly all major banks, credit card issuers, mortgage lenders, and auto loan originators — primarily through the three consumer reporting agencies, which pay FICO a per-score fee each time a lender queries a score. The Software segment sells analytics and decision management software, including FICO Platform, as multi-year SaaS or on-premises subscriptions priced on usage metrics such as account or transaction volume. Demand for credit scoring ties closely to macroeconomic conditions — including U.S. mortgage origination and credit card application volumes — which directly affect transaction-based Scores revenue. VantageScore, a joint venture of the three major consumer reporting agencies, competes directly with FICO's scoring products, meaning the company's largest distribution partners are simultaneously its most direct competitors.
Show full overview
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac historically required U.S. lenders to submit FICO Scores with mortgages delivered for purchase — a structural revenue driver for the Scores segment. However, in July 2025 the FHFA Director announced that mortgage originators may now choose the credit score model they submit, a policy change that could weigh on Scores segment revenue if lenders shift to VantageScore or other alternatives. The 10-K also notes the consumer reporting agencies' own scoring venture creates a conflict in which FICO's largest distributors are simultaneously its most direct scoring competitors.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Fair Isaac Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-19Recent Developments — Fair Isaac Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS FICO Isn’t Worried About VantageScore. Are Investors? - Barron's — Barron's neutral
- NEWS FICO scores aren’t going away, analyst says. Buy Fair Isaac stock. - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Fair Isaac Corporation 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:FICO) 2026-04-28 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS [Form 4] FAIR ISAAC CORP Insider Trading Activity - Stock Titan — Stock Titan neutral
- NEWS Legal & General Group Plc Sells 2,577 Shares of Fair Isaac Corporation $FICO - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-20T00:47:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerExperian, TransUnion and Equifax51%10-K Item 1: 'revenues generated from our agreements with Experian, TransUnion and Equifax collectively accounted for 51% ... of our total revenues'
- HIGHCustomerbanking industry92%10-K Item 1A: 'During fiscal 2025, 92% of our revenues were derived from sales of products and services to the banking industry'
- HIGHGeographicAmericas87%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest geographic market is the Americas, representing 87% of our total revenue during fiscal 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomerFannie Mae and Freddie Mac10-K Item 1A: 'Fannie Mae ... Freddie Mac ... a requirement by those enterprises that U.S. lenders provide FICO® Scores for each mortgage delivered to them'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $1190.04. At $1247.87 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $1190.04 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.84, quality 9.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $1381.10 (+10.7%), stop $1089.97 (−14.5%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $1381.10 (+9.9% upside). Target $1381.10 (+10.7%), stop $1089.97 (−14.5%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $1089.97.
Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.9%.
Fair Isaac Corporation trades at a P/E of 39.8 (forward 23.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
29 analysts cover FICO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $1535.
What does Fair Isaac Corporation do?Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytics software and credit scoring through two segments — Scores and Software — with...
Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytics software and credit scoring through two segments — Scores and Software — with the FICO Score serving as the standard consumer credit risk measure in the U.S. Revenue is heavily concentrated in financial services (92% of fiscal 2025), with Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax collectively representing 51% of total revenues as distributors of the FICO Score.