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PTRNPattern Group Inc. - Series ASell6.2·$19.17-2.19%
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Pattern Group Inc. - Series A (PTRN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.17 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Amazon (93.0%).

Pattern Group purchases products from brand partners and resells them on 70+ global ecommerce marketplaces in 100+ countries, with Amazon accounting for 93% of 2025 revenue. The platform serves 200+ brands across health, beauty, and home categories, using 66 trillion proprietary... Read more

$19.17+1.9% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#16 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.32%
Stop $17.83Target $19.53(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$22.44+17.1%9 analysts
$19.53our TP
$19.17price
$22.44mean
$26

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.17 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Amazon (93.0%). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Pattern Group Inc. - Series A

About Pattern Group Inc. - Series A

Pattern Group derived 93% of 2025 revenue from consumer product sales on Amazon, operating across more than 70 ecommerce marketplaces in more than 100 countries and employing approximately 2,300 full-time employees plus about 420 contractors as of December 31, 2025. The platform serves more than 200 brand partners, supported by a proprietary dataset of more than 66 trillion data points and a team of approximately 480 software engineers and data scientists.

The company earns revenue by purchasing inventory directly from brand partners and reselling those products to consumers as a third-party seller — the Global 3P Accelerator drives the majority of consumer product sales. The health and wellness category drove 69% of inventory purchases in 2025, with two unnamed brand partners in that category each accounting for 17% of total inventory purchases. Approximately 89% of 2025 revenue came from existing brand partners, and 53% from partners with more than five years of tenure, reflecting a net revenue retention rate of 124%. The company also offers SaaS tools, fulfillment services, and consulting, though these represent a smaller share of total revenue.

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The Amazon dependency creates a binary platform risk the 10-K explicitly names: any adverse change in the relationship — account suspension, policy change, fee increase, or disruption to Amazon's operations — could adversely affect continued growth, financial condition, and results of operations. Pattern's terms of use with Amazon are click-through agreements it cannot negotiate, terminable at will by either party. The shift toward AI-enabled shopping assistants and embedded checkout that bypass third-party marketplaces may weigh on demand for Pattern's marketplace acceleration solutions, requiring significant investment and re-architecture to remain competitive.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Pattern Group Inc. - Series A's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Amazon (93.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)27.6
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA58.7
Profit Mgn0.8%
ROE4.5%
Rev Growth43.2%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.42bearish
IV100%elevated
Max Pain$35+82.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerAmazon93%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived 93% of our revenue from consumer product sales on Amazon'
  • MEDIUMSuppliertwo health and wellness brand partners
    10-K Item 1A: 'two brand partners in the health and wellness category accounted for 17% and 17% of our inventory purchases and contributed significantly to our growth'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-18Item 5.02LOW
    Director Daniel Gay resigned effective March 16, 2026, for personal reasons; no disagreement with the company cited. Board reduced from 7 to 6 directors. John Bailey appointed to the Audit Committee.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
4.5
Volume
7.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $16.50Resistance $21.40

Price Targets

$18
$20
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.9% upside)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PTRN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.17 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Amazon (93.0%). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $17.83. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PTRN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.53 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $17.83. Stop-loss: $17.83.

What are the risks of investing in PTRN?

Concentration risk — Customer: Amazon (93.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5.

Is PTRN overvalued or undervalued?

Pattern Group Inc. - Series A trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 27.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PTRN?

16 analysts cover PTRN with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Pattern Group Inc. - Series A do?Pattern Group purchases products from brand partners and resells them on 70+ global ecommerce marketplaces in 100+...

Pattern Group purchases products from brand partners and resells them on 70+ global ecommerce marketplaces in 100+ countries, with Amazon accounting for 93% of 2025 revenue. The platform serves 200+ brands across health, beauty, and home categories, using 66 trillion proprietary data points for advertising, pricing, and inventory automation.

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