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Adeia Inc. (ADEA) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Wait for pullback to $25.09. At $26.38 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $25.09 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (55.7%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Adeia is an IP licensing company with ~13,750 patent assets in media (content discovery, streaming, personalization) and semiconductor (hybrid bonding, advanced packaging) technologies, licensing to MVPDs, OTT providers, CE manufacturers, social media firms, and semiconductor... Read more

$26.38+24.9% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#8 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.89%
IncomeYield0.76%(5y avg 1.50%)Payout18.35%sustainable
Entry $25.09(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $20.31Target $31.45(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.2:1Setup A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$37.00+40.3%4 analysts
$31.45our TP
$26.38price
$37.00mean
$43

Wait for pullback to $25.09. At $26.38 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $25.09 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (55.7%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.17, quality 9.3/10, growth 8.7/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Adeia Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 4, 2026 HIGH Item 5.02: CEO Paul E. Davis notified the Board on May 4, 2026 of intention to step down to focus on health and personal pursuits. He remains CEO until a successor is named; search targets completion by Q4 2026. Decision not due to any disagreement with the Company.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (55.7%)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.2
P/E (Fwd)17.1
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn26.5%
ROE28.5%
Rev Growth19.5%
Beta1.05
Dividend0.76%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C2.25bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$13-52.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop-5 customers56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'five customers represented 55.7% of aggregate revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02HIGH
    CEO Paul E. Davis notified the Board on May 4, 2026 of intention to step down to focus on health and personal pursuits. He remains CEO until a successor is named; search targets completion by Q4 2026. Decision not due to any disagreement with the Company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.7
Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $26.23Resistance $34.34

Price Targets

$20
$25
$31
A.Upside+19.2%
A.R:R1.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADEA stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $25.09. At $26.38 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $25.09 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (55.7%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.17, quality 9.3/10, growth 8.7/10). Target $31.45 (+19.2%), stop $20.31 (−29.9%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADEA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.45 (+24.9% upside). Target $31.45 (+19.2%), stop $20.31 (−29.9%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $20.31.

What are the risks of investing in ADEA?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (55.7%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Is ADEA overvalued or undervalued?

Adeia Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.2 (forward 17.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ADEA?

10 analysts cover ADEA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Adeia Inc. do?Adeia is an IP licensing company with ~13,750 patent assets in media (content discovery, streaming, personalization)...

Adeia is an IP licensing company with ~13,750 patent assets in media (content discovery, streaming, personalization) and semiconductor (hybrid bonding, advanced packaging) technologies, licensing to MVPDs, OTT providers, CE manufacturers, social media firms, and semiconductor companies. Revenue is primarily fixed-fee license agreements; five customers represented 55.7% of aggregate revenue in 2025.

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