Value
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.5 |
| PEG | 7.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.85
FICO · Why this verdict
Why Fair Isaac (FICO) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 39% year over year while the stock trades at a PEG ratio of 0.79, implying the market is pricing in significant growth deceleration — an asymmetry that favors patient buyers if the growth rate holds. Valuation breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 25% year over year for the next two fiscal quarters without a downward reset in guidance. | →Stable |
| CounterThe forward P/E at 21.7x is elevated on a headline basis, and any deceleration from 39% would remove the growth-at-a-discount argument and could trigger multiple compression. | ||
Banking clients represent 92% of revenue and the top three credit bureaus account for 51% — concentrating revenue risk in a narrow set of counterparties whose collective influence over contract terms and renewal cycles is substantial. Bear case | Revenue concentration in the top three bureau customers remains below 60% over the next 12 months as non-bureau revenue segments grow faster than the core. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep integration into credit decisioning at major financial institutions creates high switching costs that reinforce these relationships; the same concentration that creates contractual risk also provides durable revenue visibility. | ||
The business achieves 34% net margins, a Rule of 40 score of 71, and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — a combination that places it among the top-ranked software franchises on operational excellence and financial health. Quality breakdown | Net margins hold above 30% and the Rule of 40 remains above 60 across the next four fiscal quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe three major credit bureaus account for 51% of revenue, meaning a pricing dispute or contract renegotiation with any one of them could rapidly compress margins with limited ability to diversify away. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all four of the past four quarters — most recently by approximately 14% — with an average upside surprise of 8.5%, reflecting a consistent pattern of under-promising and over-delivering. Earnings | Earnings beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters, with positive upward revisions to forward estimates following each print. | →Stable |
| CounterWith implied volatility at 84%, the options market is pricing substantial binary risk around each earnings event; a miss after four consecutive beats would likely be severely penalized. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining approximately 2.5% over the past 30 days, volume is distributing on a falling on-balance basis, and a death cross is in place — a technical configuration that suggests continued near-term weakness. Momentum breakdown | For this headwind to clear, the stock must recross above its 200-day moving average on expanding volume and sustain the breakout for at least four consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterWith roughly 16% upside to the analyst price target and a risk/reward approaching 4-to-1 in the buyer's favor, current levels may represent an attractive entry for investors who can tolerate near-term technical weakness while waiting for fundamentals to reassert. | ||
Revenue is growing 39% year over year while the stock trades at a PEG ratio of 0.79, implying the market is pricing in significant growth deceleration — an asymmetry that favors patient buyers if the growth rate holds.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 25% year over year for the next two fiscal quarters without a downward reset in guidance.
CounterThe forward P/E at 21.7x is elevated on a headline basis, and any deceleration from 39% would remove the growth-at-a-discount argument and could trigger multiple compression.
Banking clients represent 92% of revenue and the top three credit bureaus account for 51% — concentrating revenue risk in a narrow set of counterparties whose collective influence over contract terms and renewal cycles is substantial.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue concentration in the top three bureau customers remains below 60% over the next 12 months as non-bureau revenue segments grow faster than the core.
CounterDeep integration into credit decisioning at major financial institutions creates high switching costs that reinforce these relationships; the same concentration that creates contractual risk also provides durable revenue visibility.
The business achieves 34% net margins, a Rule of 40 score of 71, and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — a combination that places it among the top-ranked software franchises on operational excellence and financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins hold above 30% and the Rule of 40 remains above 60 across the next four fiscal quarters.
CounterThe three major credit bureaus account for 51% of revenue, meaning a pricing dispute or contract renegotiation with any one of them could rapidly compress margins with limited ability to diversify away.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all four of the past four quarters — most recently by approximately 14% — with an average upside surprise of 8.5%, reflecting a consistent pattern of under-promising and over-delivering.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters, with positive upward revisions to forward estimates following each print.
CounterWith implied volatility at 84%, the options market is pricing substantial binary risk around each earnings event; a miss after four consecutive beats would likely be severely penalized.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining approximately 2.5% over the past 30 days, volume is distributing on a falling on-balance basis, and a death cross is in place — a technical configuration that suggests continued near-term weakness.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- For this headwind to clear, the stock must recross above its 200-day moving average on expanding volume and sustain the breakout for at least four consecutive weeks.
CounterWith roughly 16% upside to the analyst price target and a risk/reward approaching 4-to-1 in the buyer's favor, current levels may represent an attractive entry for investors who can tolerate near-term technical weakness while waiting for fundamentals to reassert.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
At a PEG of 0.79 with 39% revenue growth and a quality profile in the top tier of software companies, the fundamental case is compelling — but a confirmed price downtrend and a death cross in place argue for waiting on technical confirmation before entering.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸Rule of 40: 71 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 39% YoY
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 9.1 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 2.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 6.6 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Above max pain $940
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.7 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.85, quality 9.0/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=9.0>=7.5+momentum=5.9>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
0.47
Upside
+7.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 24d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 9.0 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.47 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 9.0, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 1.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3, and Value at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.47 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Software Quality Franchise
Trip ifGross margin compresses below 28% for 2 consecutive fiscal quarters.
- P2Hypergrowth At Discount To Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Consistent Earnings Execution
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average on rising volume for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5Customer Concentration Revenue Risk
Trip ifRevenue from top three credit bureau customers exceeds 60% of total annual revenue.