Ball Corporation has delivered three earnings beats and one in-line result over the last four quarters, and trades at a forward P/E of 12.7x that screens attractively relative to sector peers — but free cash flow at only 43% of net income, a quality profile at the minimum acceptable floor, and a risk/reward that falls short of the target threshold limit conviction at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Steady Earnings Execution Consistency↓Deteriorating
- Supplier Concentration Input Cost Risk↓Deteriorating
- Valuation Discount With Analyst Upside↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ball Corporation (BALL) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.82: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.28; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Ball Corporation manufactures aluminum packaging — primarily beverage containers — for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries globally, generating $13.16 billion in consolidated net sales in 2025. Revenue comes from multi-year supply contracts with large... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.82: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.28; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Ball Corporation
About Ball Corporation
Ball Corporation's three reportable segments generated $13.16 billion in consolidated net sales in 2025: beverage packaging North and Central America at 48% of sales, EMEA at 30%, and South America at 16%. The company shipped approximately 50 billion aluminum beverage containers in North and Central America and 38 billion in EMEA in 2025, employing approximately 16,000 people globally.
Ball generates revenue primarily through multi-year supply contracts with large multinational beverage, personal care, and household products companies. In North and Central America, containers are sold to fillers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other beverages, with aluminum supplied by a diverse base of more than seven global suppliers. In South America, two global suppliers provide virtually all aluminum can and end sheet requirements. In the Americas and Europe, some contracts do not allow pass-through of increased raw material costs, creating exposure to aluminum price movements that Ball manages partially through derivative instruments. The aluminum beverage container competes with glass bottles in beer and PET in carbonated soft drinks, and Ball holds an estimated 39% share of EMEA beverage container shipments where it faces three other major manufacturers.
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Ball's input cost exposure was complicated in September 2025 when U.S. Customs and Border Protection challenged the tariff classification and applicable duty rates on certain aluminum imports, asserting additional duties are payable. Ball acknowledged the outcome is uncertain and the additional tariffs, interest, and penalties could be owed, but has recorded no reserve. Fixed-price contracts in portions of the Americas and Europe limit the company's ability to pass through rising raw material costs, meaning a sustained aluminum price increase may impact profitability in markets where contractual pass-through protections are absent.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
From Ball Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Ball Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS ESPN is buying even more Georgia stock after spring ball - Dawn of the Dawg — Dawn of the Dawg neutral
- NEWS I'm Playing Small Ball (and Hanging With Disney) Until Coast Is Clear - TheStreet Pro — TheStreet Pro negative
- NEWS BALL Maintained by Truist Securities -- Price Target Raised to $77 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Ball (BALL) to Release Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Rules Guy: My ball hit a lawnmower and bounced OB. Is that a penalty? - GOLF.com — GOLF.com negative
Generated 2026-08-15T11:22:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerrelatively limited number of major customers10-K Item 1A: 'Because we depend on a relatively limited number of major customers, our business, financial condition or results of operations could be adversely affected'
- MEDIUMProductbeverage containers10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our consolidated net sales were from the sale of beverage containers'
- MEDIUMGeographicNorth and Central America48%10-K Item 1: 'Beverage packaging, North and Central America, is Ball's largest segment, accounting for 48 percent of consolidated net sales in 2025'
- HIGHSuppliertwo global suppliers (South America)10-K Item 1: 'In South America, two global suppliers provide virtually all our aluminum can and end sheet requirements'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.82: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.28; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $58.98. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $63.14 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $58.98. Stop-loss: $58.98.
Concentration risk — Supplier: two global suppliers (South America); Target reached (2.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
Ball Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.8 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover BALL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $73.
What does Ball Corporation do?Ball Corporation manufactures aluminum packaging — primarily beverage containers — for the beverage, personal care, and...
Ball Corporation manufactures aluminum packaging — primarily beverage containers — for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries globally, generating $13.16 billion in consolidated net sales in 2025. Revenue comes from multi-year supply contracts with large multinational companies across North and Central America (48% of sales), EMEA (30%), and South America (16%).