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Ball Corporation (BALL) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.11: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Ball Corporation manufactures aluminum packaging for beverage, personal care, and household products across three segments: Beverage Packaging North and Central America (48% of 2025 net sales of $13.16B), EMEA (30%), and South America (16%). It sells under long-term contracts to... Read more

$55.11+11.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#4 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.72%
IncomeYield1.43%(5y avg 1.28%)Payout23.32%sustainable
Stop $52.94Target $61.58(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$70.79+28.4%14 analysts
$61.58our TP
$55.11price
$70.79mean
$77

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.11: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Ball Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: outside of the U.S. (53.0%)
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.3
P/E (Fwd)12.3
Mkt Cap$14.9B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth16.3%
Beta1.06
Dividend1.43%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV35%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicoutside of the U.S.53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived approximately 53 percent of our consolidated net sales from outside of the U.S. for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.6
Volume
2.3
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.0
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 30)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $54.58Resistance $64.00

Price Targets

$53
$62
A.Upside+11.7%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BALL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.11: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $52.94. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BALL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $61.58 (+11.7% upside). Prior stop was $52.94. Stop-loss: $52.94.

What are the risks of investing in BALL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: outside of the U.S. (53.0%); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Is BALL overvalued or undervalued?

Ball Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.3 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BALL?

21 analysts cover BALL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $71.

What does Ball Corporation do?Ball Corporation manufactures aluminum packaging for beverage, personal care, and household products across three...

Ball Corporation manufactures aluminum packaging for beverage, personal care, and household products across three segments: Beverage Packaging North and Central America (48% of 2025 net sales of $13.16B), EMEA (30%), and South America (16%). It sells under long-term contracts to large multinational beverage companies and is the largest regional producer in each market it operates. Approximately 53% of consolidated net sales were derived from outside the U.S. in 2025.

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