GEF-B exhibits strong price momentum and an attractively low price-to-growth ratio, but the stock has moved above its near-term fair value ceiling, carries one of the highest short interest readings in the peer group at 34%, has two severe earnings misses in recent quarters, and a negative news modifier has shifted the stance toward caution — the risk/reward is unfavorable for new entry at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Price Above Fair Value↑Improving
- Extreme Short Interest↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Miss Severity↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Dec 23, 2024· older than 90 days
Greif, Inc. Corporation (GEF-B) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $106.58 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Greif produces industrial packaging products and services — steel, fibre and plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers, closure systems, and reconditioned containers — along with containerboard, corrugated containers, and paper products across 35+ countries in three... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $106.58 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Jul 28, 2026
Recent Developments — Greif, Inc. Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS GEF|Greif Inc|Price:80.300|Chg%:+1.680 - TradingKey — TradingKey Jul 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Greif Inc (GEF) Balance Sheet - TradingKey — TradingKey Jul 25, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Greif Inc (GEF) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey Jul 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Greif Bros Corp stock hits all-time high at 77.42 USD - Investing.com — Investing.com Jul 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS GEF|Greif Inc|Price:76.760|Chg%:-0.040 - TradingKey — TradingKey Jul 23, 2026 neutral
Latest item Jul 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicnon-U.S. operations37%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 37% of our fiscal 2024 sales derived from non-U.S. operations'
- LOWGeographicRussia3.0%10-K Item 1A: 'our operations in Russia accounted for approximately 3% of our net sales'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-14Item 1.01LOWGreif entered Fourth Amended and Restated Transfer and Administration Agreement on May 11, 2026, providing a $200M receivables financing facility with PNC Bank as agent, replacing the prior $275M Existing TAA. No adverse event or default cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-14Item 1.02MEDIUMPrior $275M Receivables Facility (Existing TAA) replaced in its entirety by the Fourth Amended TAA effective May 11, 2026. No default or material adverse change cited; facility replaced via amendment rather than outright termination.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-14Item 2.03LOWGreif created direct financial obligations under the $200M Fourth Amended TAA receivables facility effective May 11, 2026. Obligation arises from the same transaction as Items 1.01 and 1.02. No default cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-14Item 2.04LOWTriggering event provisions disclosed in connection with the Fourth Amended TAA receivables facility (May 11, 2026). No default or acceleration event occurred; routine disclosure tied to the amended facility.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $106.58 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $100.95. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Resistance target: $114.98 (+7.9% upside). Prior stop was $100.95. Stop-loss: $100.95.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Greif, Inc. Corporation trades at a P/E of 32.2 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts rate GEF-B, with a consensus score of 3.7/5.
What does Greif, Inc. Corporation do?Greif produces industrial packaging products and services — steel, fibre and plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk...
Greif produces industrial packaging products and services — steel, fibre and plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers, closure systems, and reconditioned containers — along with containerboard, corrugated containers, and paper products across 35+ countries in three segments. Customers span chemicals, food, automotive, and building products industries; no single customer is considered principal to total operations.