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Greif, Inc. Corporation (GEF-B) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $77.88 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Greif is a global industrial packaging producer with operations in 35+ countries across three segments: Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging & Services, and Land Management. Revenue spans chemicals, food, petroleum, automotive, and other industries, with no single... Read more

$77.88+11.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#7 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.33%(5y avg 4.45%)Payout88.98%at-risk
Stop $72.86Target $86.54(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $77.88 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Greif, Inc. Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.1
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn24.4%
ROE
Rev Growth-0.5%
Beta0.83
Dividend4.33%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicnon-U.S. operations37%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 37% of our fiscal 2024 sales derived from non-U.S. operations'
  • LOWGeographicRussia3.0%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our operations in Russia accounted for approximately 3% of our net sales, approximately 9% of our operating profit and approximately 2% of our total assets'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Greif terminated its Prior Credit Agreement on February 27, 2026, replaced in its entirety by a new Third Amended and Restated senior secured credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank providing $800M revolving and $100M term loan facilities maturing February 27, 2031.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.7
Ma Position
4.0
Obv
5.1
Rsi
5.5
Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $75.11Resistance $88.31

Price Targets

$73
$87
A.Upside+11.1%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GEF-B stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $77.88 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $72.86. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the GEF-B stock price target?

Take-profit target: $86.54 (+11.1% upside). Prior stop was $72.86. Stop-loss: $72.86.

What are the risks of investing in GEF-B?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is GEF-B overvalued or undervalued?

Greif, Inc. Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GEF-B?

10 analysts cover GEF-B with a consensus score of 3.6/5.

What does Greif, Inc. Corporation do?Greif is a global industrial packaging producer with operations in 35+ countries across three segments: Global...

Greif is a global industrial packaging producer with operations in 35+ countries across three segments: Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging & Services, and Land Management. Revenue spans chemicals, food, petroleum, automotive, and other industries, with no single customer considered principal to total operations.

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