Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 6.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.12
BALL · Why this verdict
Why Ball (BALL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 3.9/10, below the 4.0 floor, with an earnings-quality red flag of 40% FCF/NI, no competitive moat and an operating margin of 3.9%. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI should rise above 60% and operating margin above 8% within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski F-Score of 6.7 and a moat component of 5.4 show the franchise is not uniformly weak and quality is only marginally under the floor. | ||
The price of $66.47 is above the $62.24 analyst target, a -6.4% upside, with 15.0% downside to the stop, so reward does not justify the risk at this level. Upside pct | Analyst targets should rise above the current price or the price should pull back toward $62 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum and revenue growth could trigger upward target revisions that justify the current price. | ||
Momentum is 8.3/10 with the price above its 200-day average and rising OBV, though RSI 79 is overbought. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the 200-day average as RSI normalizes below 70 over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOverbought readings at RSI 79 with support/resistance and Bollinger scores near zero suggest a stretched price vulnerable to a pullback. | ||
Ball is an industry growth leader with revenue growth scoring 7.4/10 and a peer growth rank of 8.9. Peer-rank breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 5% year-over-year over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scores only 3.8, showing revenue growth is not flowing through to profit. | ||
Insiders sold $914,139 (0.005% of market cap) over 90 days with no buys, alongside a high supplier concentration risk on two global suppliers in South America. Insider breakdown | Insider net selling should stay below $1M per 90 days with no supply disruption. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is small relative to market cap, and diversified sourcing may reduce the supplier concentration risk. | ||
Quality is 3.9/10, below the 4.0 floor, with an earnings-quality red flag of 40% FCF/NI, no competitive moat and an operating margin of 3.9%.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI should rise above 60% and operating margin above 8% within 12 months.
CounterPiotroski F-Score of 6.7 and a moat component of 5.4 show the franchise is not uniformly weak and quality is only marginally under the floor.
The price of $66.47 is above the $62.24 analyst target, a -6.4% upside, with 15.0% downside to the stop, so reward does not justify the risk at this level.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise above the current price or the price should pull back toward $62 within 12 months.
CounterStrong momentum and revenue growth could trigger upward target revisions that justify the current price.
Momentum is 8.3/10 with the price above its 200-day average and rising OBV, though RSI 79 is overbought.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the 200-day average as RSI normalizes below 70 over 12 months.
CounterOverbought readings at RSI 79 with support/resistance and Bollinger scores near zero suggest a stretched price vulnerable to a pullback.
Ball is an industry growth leader with revenue growth scoring 7.4/10 and a peer growth rank of 8.9.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 5% year-over-year over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth scores only 3.8, showing revenue growth is not flowing through to profit.
Insiders sold $914,139 (0.005% of market cap) over 90 days with no buys, alongside a high supplier concentration risk on two global suppliers in South America.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider net selling should stay below $1M per 90 days with no supply disruption.
CounterThe selling is small relative to market cap, and diversified sourcing may reduce the supplier concentration risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.2 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 40% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.4 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $914,139 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 4.9 |
| put call | 5.2 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $35
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.2 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.15
Upside
-1.5%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.1=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 8.4 and asymmetric R:R of -0.15.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.4, Value at 6.6, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Insider at 3.8, Quality at 3.9, and Growth at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 15% from current 6.4%.
- P2Weak Quality Poor Cash Conversion
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 3.0% from current 3.9%.
- P3Strong Momentum Overbought
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day average with momentum dropping below 4.5 from current 8.3.
- P4Industry Growth Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 2% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Insider Selling Concentration Risk
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $3M over a 90-day window.