Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.31
BALL · Why this verdict
Why Ball (BALL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with the one exception being an exact in-line result — a pattern of consistent delivery that suggests disciplined cost management even in a thin-margin packaging environment. Earnings | The pattern of positive earnings surprises extends for at least 2 more consecutive quarters with EPS above consensus, confirming execution reliability. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average EPS surprise is only about 2%, well within rounding error of consensus — this is not the kind of earnings acceleration that drives multiple expansion, and any single miss would break the delivery streak entirely given how close actual results have tracked estimates. | ||
Reliance on two global suppliers concentrated in South America for critical inputs creates a structural supply-chain vulnerability — any disruption to either supplier could compress margins materially with limited near-term alternatives. Bear case | The company announces diversified sourcing arrangements or demonstrates supplier diversification that reduces dependence on the two-supplier structure within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA two-supplier concentration may reflect long-term negotiated pricing arrangements that reduce input costs below market — if the relationships are stable and contractually protected, the concentration could represent a cost advantage rather than a vulnerability. | ||
A forward P/E of 12.7x and a PEG of 1.22 place the stock in attractively valued territory, with approximately 7% headroom to analyst consensus targets and the risk/reward in your favor. Valuation breakdown | Analyst targets remain above current prices and forward earnings estimates hold steady, preserving the valuation gap for at least two more quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSeven percent upside to analyst targets is a narrow margin of safety in a packaging business exposed to input-cost volatility; a single downward estimate revision would eliminate the gap and flip the apparent discount into a fairly-valued or overvalued reading. | ||
Free cash flow is only 43% of net income — explicitly flagged as a quality concern — and the overall quality profile sits at the minimum acceptable floor, indicating the business is converting earnings to cash at a rate that leaves little cushion for debt service, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. Quality breakdown | This pillar is resolved when free cash flow rises above 70% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, removing the low-conversion quality concern. | →Stable |
| CounterLow free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income may reflect a transient capital-expenditure or working-capital timing factor rather than a structural deficiency; if the ratio normalizes as investment cycles moderate, the quality concern self-resolves without a fundamental impairment. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with the one exception being an exact in-line result — a pattern of consistent delivery that suggests disciplined cost management even in a thin-margin packaging environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The pattern of positive earnings surprises extends for at least 2 more consecutive quarters with EPS above consensus, confirming execution reliability.
CounterThe average EPS surprise is only about 2%, well within rounding error of consensus — this is not the kind of earnings acceleration that drives multiple expansion, and any single miss would break the delivery streak entirely given how close actual results have tracked estimates.
Reliance on two global suppliers concentrated in South America for critical inputs creates a structural supply-chain vulnerability — any disruption to either supplier could compress margins materially with limited near-term alternatives.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company announces diversified sourcing arrangements or demonstrates supplier diversification that reduces dependence on the two-supplier structure within 12 months.
CounterA two-supplier concentration may reflect long-term negotiated pricing arrangements that reduce input costs below market — if the relationships are stable and contractually protected, the concentration could represent a cost advantage rather than a vulnerability.
A forward P/E of 12.7x and a PEG of 1.22 place the stock in attractively valued territory, with approximately 7% headroom to analyst consensus targets and the risk/reward in your favor.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst targets remain above current prices and forward earnings estimates hold steady, preserving the valuation gap for at least two more quarters.
CounterSeven percent upside to analyst targets is a narrow margin of safety in a packaging business exposed to input-cost volatility; a single downward estimate revision would eliminate the gap and flip the apparent discount into a fairly-valued or overvalued reading.
Free cash flow is only 43% of net income — explicitly flagged as a quality concern — and the overall quality profile sits at the minimum acceptable floor, indicating the business is converting earnings to cash at a rate that leaves little cushion for debt service, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is resolved when free cash flow rises above 70% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, removing the low-conversion quality concern.
CounterLow free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income may reflect a transient capital-expenditure or working-capital timing factor rather than a structural deficiency; if the ratio normalizes as investment cycles moderate, the quality concern self-resolves without a fundamental impairment.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ball Corporation has delivered three earnings beats and one in-line result over the last four quarters, and trades at a forward P/E of 12.7x that screens attractively relative to sector peers — but free cash flow at only 43% of net income, a quality profile at the minimum acceptable floor, and a risk/reward that falls short of the target threshold limit conviction at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 43% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 6.4 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 88)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 8.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.49
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 126.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.19
Upside
-2.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Momentum at 6.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.6, Value at 6.5, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Quality at 4.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Steady Earnings Execution Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the pattern of consistent positive delivery.
- P2Valuation Discount With Analyst Upside
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x as earnings estimates compress more than 15% from current levels.
- P3Cash Conversion Weakness At Quality Floor
Trip ifFree cash flow exceeds 70% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, removing the low-conversion concern.
- P4Supplier Concentration Input Cost Risk
Trip ifRevenue grows more than 5% year-over-year for 4 consecutive quarters without supplier-related disruption, demonstrating the two-supplier concentration is not creating material vulnerability.