Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the AMBP stock price target?

Take-profit $3.92 (+2.0% upside). Prior stop was $3.63.

Q: What are the risks of investing in AMBP?

Target reached (1.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Target reached (1.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Q: Is AMBP overvalued or undervalued?

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about AMBP?

12 analysts cover AMBP with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $5.

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

$3.85+2.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#2 of 16 Packaging & Containers

Stop $3.63Target $3.92(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1

Analyst target$4.50+16.9%6 analysts

$3.92our TP

$3.85price

$4.50mean

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.85: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (1.8% upside)

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)13.1

Mkt Cap$2.3B

EV/EBITDA8.9

Profit Mgn0.2%

ROE—

Rev Growth18.6%

Beta0.63

Dividend10.39%

Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.415%1.11

Quality3.715%0.56

Growth7.215%1.08

Momentum2.110%0.21

Sentiment5.710%0.57

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank5.610%0.56

Technical Setup7.15%0.35

Risk Profile6.95%0.35

Catalyst8.05%0.40

Overall (Σ contributions)5.68

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

2.2

Rsi

3.5

Macd

3.7

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Net Margin

0.1

Operating Margin

1.6

Roa

2.2

Current Ratio

4.2

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

6.7

Fcf Quality

10.0

Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NINo competitive moat

GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

34 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $3.74Resistance $4.26

Price Targets

A.Upside+1.8%

A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.8% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-23 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AMBP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.85: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $3.63. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMBP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $3.92 (+2.0% upside). Prior stop was $3.63. Stop-loss: $3.63.

What are the risks of investing in AMBP?

Target reached (1.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is AMBP overvalued or undervalued?

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMBP?

12 analysts cover AMBP with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $5.

What does Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. do?Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North...

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil. It offers a range of beverage cans for use in sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt beverages, energy drinks, and teas, as well as flavored alcoholic beverages to beverage producers. The company was founded in 1932 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.