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Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.97: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil. It offers a range of beverage cans for use in sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt beverages, energy drinks, and teas,... Read more

$3.97+2.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.50%
IncomeYield9.98%Payout500.00%at-risk
Stop $3.77Target $4.07(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$4.50+13.4%6 analysts
$4.07our TP
$3.97price
$4.50mean
$5

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.97: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-1.4% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn0.2%
ROE
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta0.55
Dividend9.98%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV81%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.1
Operating Margin
1.6
Roa
2.2
Current Ratio
4.2
Moat
5.5
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $3.74Resistance $4.15

Price Targets

$4
$4
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMBP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.97: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $3.77. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMBP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $4.07 (+2.5% upside). Prior stop was $3.77. Stop-loss: $3.77.

What are the risks of investing in AMBP?

Target reached (-1.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is AMBP overvalued or undervalued?

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMBP?

12 analysts cover AMBP with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $5.

What does Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. do?Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North...

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil. It offers a range of beverage cans for use in sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt beverages, energy drinks, and teas, as well as flavored alcoholic beverages to beverage producers. The company was founded in 1932 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.

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