Amcor shows 77% revenue growth year-over-year and recovering price momentum, but free cash flow is converting at only 22% of net income, business quality sits at the minimum-threshold floor, a put/call ratio of 3.17 signals elevated institutional hedging demand, and dual concentration in flexible packaging and developed markets limits diversification — the position warrants an exit until quality and cash conversion improve.
Thesis pillars
- Poor Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Product Geographic Concentration→Stable
- Elevated Options Hedging Demand→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Amcor plc (AMCR) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. At $42.10, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%).
Amcor plc manufactures flexible and rigid packaging — films, laminates, bottles, closures, and pharma devices — through its Flexible Packaging (72% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Rigid Packaging (28%) segments. It operates over 400 facilities in 40+ countries, sells to no... Read more
Sell if holding. At $42.10, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Amcor plc
About Amcor plc
Amcor's Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment generated approximately 72% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, operating 210 manufacturing and support facilities in 36 countries with roughly 42,000 employees, while the Global Rigid Packaging Solutions segment contributed the remaining 28% from 213 facilities in 34 countries. Approximately 75% of Amcor's sales revenue came from developed markets and 25% from emerging markets in fiscal 2025.
Amcor makes money manufacturing and selling flexible and rigid packaging — films, laminates, bottles, closures, and pharma dispensing devices made from polymer resin, aluminum, and fiber-based materials — to consumer, healthcare, and industrial customers worldwide, with no single customer exceeding 10% of consolidated net sales in the past three fiscal years. Revenue is transactional rather than subscription-based, tied to customers' own packaged-goods volumes, and the company competes on technical know-how and its ability to co-develop packaging formats with customers rather than on a single dominant product line. Cost structure is sensitive to raw-material and energy price swings — Amcor names price fluctuations or shortages in raw materials, energy, and other inputs as a specific risk factor — and the company maintains inventory levels balancing favorable raw-material pricing against its commitment to promptly fill customer orders across its geographically dispersed manufacturing footprint.
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Amcor's revenue mix skews heavily toward developed economies rather than a single country: approximately 75% of fiscal 2025 sales revenue came from developed markets and 25% from emerging markets, even as the company continues expanding operations in emerging markets. That skew ties Amcor's near-term results more closely to consumer demand and packaged-goods volumes in mature economies such as North America and Europe than to faster-growing but currently smaller emerging-market revenue, a dynamic distinct from packaging peers with a heavier emerging-market weighting.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
From Amcor plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Amcor plc
Latest news
- NEWS A Look at Amcor PLC (AMCR) After 3.5% Gain -- GF Value $49.42 vs Price $47.45 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Amcor PLC stock rises Wednesday, outperforms market - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
- NEWS Amcor stock extends 2026 rally as dividend and earnings upgrade support packaging giant - Ad-hoc-news.de — Ad-hoc-news.de positive
- NEWS Amcor (AMCR) Daily Price Brief: Posts a 0.72% Gain to $45.86 in the Latest Reading; Support and Resistance - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et neutral
- NEWS Truist reiterates Amcor stock Buy rating, keeps $51 price target By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa positive
Generated 2026-09-26T04:41:59Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductGlobal Flexible Packaging Solutions segment72%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal year 2025, the Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment accounted for approximately 72% of consolidated net sales.'
- HIGHGeographicdeveloped markets75%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal year 2025, approximately 75% of our sales revenue came from developed markets and 25% came from emerging markets.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $42.10, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $40.34. Score 6.4/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $43.66 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $40.34. Stop-loss: $40.34.
Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.7%.
Amcor plc trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover AMCR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $50.
What does Amcor plc do?Amcor plc manufactures flexible and rigid packaging — films, laminates, bottles, closures, and pharma devices — through...
Amcor plc manufactures flexible and rigid packaging — films, laminates, bottles, closures, and pharma devices — through its Flexible Packaging (72% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Rigid Packaging (28%) segments. It operates over 400 facilities in 40+ countries, sells to no customer exceeding 10% of net sales, and draws about 75% of revenue from developed markets versus 25% from emerging markets.