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Amcor plc (AMCR) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.62: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Amcor is a global packaging manufacturer with two segments following its April 2025 Berry Global merger: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions (72% of 2025 net sales, ~210 facilities in 36 countries) and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions (28%, ~213 facilities in 34 countries). No... Read more

$36.62+14.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#10 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield0.88%
IncomeYield7.09%(5y avg 4.83%)Payout206.83%at-risk
Stop $35.38Target $42.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$48.40+32.2%11 analysts
$42.10our TP
$36.62price
$48.40mean
$60

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.62: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Amcor plc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.6
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$17.0B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn3.1%
ROE8.7%
Rev Growth77.4%
Beta0.63
Dividend7.09%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$15-59.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.2
Volume
2.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.5
Fcf Quality
1.8
Roa
2.7
Roe
2.9
Operating Margin
3.4
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
5.3
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 22% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.2
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 709.0%
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $36.47Resistance $41.40

Price Targets

$35
$42
A.Upside+15.0%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMCR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.62: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $35.38. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMCR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.10 (+14.7% upside). Prior stop was $35.38. Stop-loss: $35.38.

What are the risks of investing in AMCR?

Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Is AMCR overvalued or undervalued?

Amcor plc trades at a P/E of 29.6 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMCR?

17 analysts cover AMCR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Amcor plc do?Amcor is a global packaging manufacturer with two segments following its April 2025 Berry Global merger: Global...

Amcor is a global packaging manufacturer with two segments following its April 2025 Berry Global merger: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions (72% of 2025 net sales, ~210 facilities in 36 countries) and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions (28%, ~213 facilities in 34 countries). No single customer exceeds 10% of consolidated net sales.

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