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PTC Inc. (PTC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $133.03. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $134.85. Engine's entry $133.03 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: discrete manufacturing sector; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

PTC is a global software company serving 30,000+ industrial customers with PLM, CAD, and SaaS products including Windchill, Creo, and ServiceMax. Revenue is 95% recurring under a subscription model, with customers in industrials, automotive, aerospace, electronics, and medical... Read more

$134.85+24.9% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#3 of 96 Software - Application
Entry $133.03(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $125.60Target $165.74(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.2:1Setup A.R:R 5.7:1
Analyst target$184.16+36.6%19 analysts
$165.74our TP
$134.85price
$184.16mean
$230

Wait for pullback to $133.03. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $134.85. Engine's entry $133.03 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: discrete manufacturing sector; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. V9 Gate blocked: Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.2Qual7.9Grw8.9Mom5.1Sent6.8Ins5.0Peer5.0Tech6.0Risk6.76.6OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: discrete manufacturing sector
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.3
P/E (Fwd)16.5
Mkt Cap$16.4B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn28.6%
ROE23.1%
Rev Growth21.4%
Beta1.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$195+44.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerdiscrete manufacturing sector
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on sales within the discrete manufacturing sector and our business could be adversely affected if manufacturing activity does not grow'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.1>=4.5A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $130.89Resistance $148.00

Price Targets

$126
$133
$166
A.Upside+22.9%
A.R:R4.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)5.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %2.5%
Max %5%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PTC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $133.03. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $134.85. Engine's entry $133.03 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: discrete manufacturing sector; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. V9 Gate blocked: Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Target $165.74 (+22.9%), stop $125.60 (−7.4%), Setup A.R:R 5.7:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PTC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $165.74 (+24.9% upside). Target $165.74 (+22.9%), stop $125.60 (−7.4%), Setup A.R:R 5.7:1. Stop-loss: $125.60.

What are the risks of investing in PTC?

Concentration risk — Customer: discrete manufacturing sector; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is PTC overvalued or undervalued?

PTC Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.3 (forward 16.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about PTC?

25 analysts cover PTC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $184.

What does PTC Inc. do?PTC is a global software company serving 30,000+ industrial customers with PLM, CAD, and SaaS products including...

PTC is a global software company serving 30,000+ industrial customers with PLM, CAD, and SaaS products including Windchill, Creo, and ServiceMax. Revenue is 95% recurring under a subscription model, with customers in industrials, automotive, aerospace, electronics, and medical technology verticals.

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