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PTCPTC Inc.Sell5.3·$138.12
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

PTC Inc. combines a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, a PEG ratio of 0.94, 34% return on equity, and Rule of 40 score of 55 with deeply depressed momentum signals including RSI of 18 and a confirmed death cross, creating a high-quality business available at a potentially attractive price if the technical setup resolves.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Compounder Fundamentals→Stable
  • Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Oversold Technical Setup↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

PTC Inc. (PTC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityShortModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $138.12: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth.

PTC develops industrial software for PLM and CAD, serving over 30,000 customers globally across industrials, defense, electronics, automotive, and medical technology. The company earns revenue through software subscriptions — 95% of 2025 revenue was recurring — with... Read more

$138.12+13.0% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#97 of 118 Software - Application
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield6.92%
Stop $128.78Target $156.01(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$173.35+25.5%20 analysts
$156.01our TP
$138.12price
$173.35mean
$230

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $138.12: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About PTC Inc.

About PTC Inc.

PTC's subscription software platform served more than 30,000 customers globally in fiscal 2025, with 95% of annual revenue classified as recurring. The company's 7,642 full-time employees develop PLM products — Windchill, Codebeamer, ServiceMax, Arena, and Servigistics — and CAD tools including Creo and Onshape, across five customer verticals: industrials, federal/aerospace and defense, electronics, automotive, and medical technology. Approximately 75% of sales are direct, with resellers covering smaller accounts.

PTC earns revenue through software subscriptions providing access to PLM and CAD suites, with Windchill addressing product data management across the product development lifecycle, Creo serving 3D parametric design, and ServiceMax handling field service management. Approximately 75% of sales are made directly by the company's sales force targeting large enterprise accounts, with the remaining 25% through third-party resellers covering smaller businesses. Growth comes primarily from existing customers expanding their PTC software footprint and multi-product adoption, alongside commercial pricing optimization and new customer wins. Competition is intense: Autodesk, Dassault Systèmes SA, and Siemens AG compete in PLM and CAD; IBM and Siemens AG compete in ALM; and Oracle, SAP, IFS AB, Microsoft, and Salesforce compete in field service and SLM. A large amount of PTC's sales are to customers in the discrete manufacturing sector, making results sensitive to manufacturing activity cycles and macroeconomic factors that affect capital spending by manufacturers.

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PTC's PLM and CAD products compete against Autodesk, Dassault Systèmes SA, and Siemens AG — all of which hold greater brand recognition and longer-standing relationships at large enterprise accounts. The 10-K notes these competitors have more financial, technical, and marketing resources, which may limit PTC's ability to gain customer confidence or displace incumbents. The company's SaaS transition adds a further dimension: Arena and Onshape are cloud-native solutions, while Windchill+ and Creo+ are newer SaaS offerings. If competing SaaS PLM and CAD solutions from Autodesk or Dassault Systèmes attract new buyers before Windchill+ and Creo+ mature, PTC could lose market share among enterprise accounts evaluating cloud migrations.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From PTC Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 11, 202647d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.6
P/E (Fwd)15.4
Mkt Cap$14.9B
EV/EBITDA12.7
Profit Mgn41.4%
ROE35.1%
Rev Growth-6.8%
Beta1.00
DividendNone
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.19bullish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -6.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.8
Declining revenue: -7%
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 47d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $126.79Resistance $159.46

Price Targets

$129
$156
A.Upside+13.0%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-11 (47d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PTC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $138.12: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Prior stop was $128.78. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PTC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $156.01 (+13.0% upside). Prior stop was $128.78. Stop-loss: $128.78.

What are the risks of investing in PTC?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is PTC overvalued or undervalued?

PTC Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.6 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PTC?

26 analysts cover PTC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $173.

What does PTC Inc. do?PTC develops industrial software for PLM and CAD, serving over 30,000 customers globally across industrials, defense,...

PTC develops industrial software for PLM and CAD, serving over 30,000 customers globally across industrials, defense, electronics, automotive, and medical technology. The company earns revenue through software subscriptions — 95% of 2025 revenue was recurring — with approximately 75% of sales direct and 25% through resellers, competing against Autodesk, Dassault Systèmes, and Siemens.

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