Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 5.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.40
PTC · Why this verdict
Why PTC (PTC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PTC Inc. combines a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, a PEG ratio of 0.94, 34% return on equity, and Rule of 40 score of 55 with deeply depressed momentum signals including RSI of 18 and a confirmed death cross, creating a high-quality business available at a potentially attractive price if the technical setup resolves.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
PTC earns a 34% return on equity, generates operating margins of 42%, passes the Rule of 40 at a score of 55, and holds a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, placing it in the top tier of software business quality by multiple measures. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 25% and operating margins stay above 35% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion at 79% of net income is flagged as a warning, and FCF quality below 6 suggests some accrual-based earnings inflation. | ||
PTC has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 34%, including a 53% beat in the November 2025 quarter, reflecting consistent execution above market expectations. Earnings | Earnings per share beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst estimates may be set conservatively following the stock's technical decline, making beats easier to achieve while the underlying business decelerates. | ||
RSI of 18 places the stock in extreme oversold territory, the price is near the Bollinger lower band, and a volume surge has been observed, historically associated with short-term reversal potential in high-quality names. Momentum breakdown | RSI rises above 40 within 6 months and price recovers above the entry target of $132.74. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 18 with a confirmed death cross and a 200-day moving average slope of -5.8% per month indicates a high probability that the downtrend continues before any reversal, making timing risk extremely high. | ||
The put/call ratio is 58.65, one of the most extreme hedging signals possible, combined with implied volatility of 83%, indicating that options market participants are aggressively positioning for further downside. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 5.0 within 6 months as the technical setup improves and hedging demand normalizes. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can also signal near-term capitulation, where the heaviest bearish positioning coincides with a price bottom before a sharp reversal. | ||
PTC earns a 34% return on equity, generates operating margins of 42%, passes the Rule of 40 at a score of 55, and holds a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, placing it in the top tier of software business quality by multiple measures.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 25% and operating margins stay above 35% over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow conversion at 79% of net income is flagged as a warning, and FCF quality below 6 suggests some accrual-based earnings inflation.
PTC has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 34%, including a 53% beat in the November 2025 quarter, reflecting consistent execution above market expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise above 10%.
CounterAnalyst estimates may be set conservatively following the stock's technical decline, making beats easier to achieve while the underlying business decelerates.
RSI of 18 places the stock in extreme oversold territory, the price is near the Bollinger lower band, and a volume surge has been observed, historically associated with short-term reversal potential in high-quality names.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI rises above 40 within 6 months and price recovers above the entry target of $132.74.
CounterAn RSI of 18 with a confirmed death cross and a 200-day moving average slope of -5.8% per month indicates a high probability that the downtrend continues before any reversal, making timing risk extremely high.
The put/call ratio is 58.65, one of the most extreme hedging signals possible, combined with implied volatility of 83%, indicating that options market participants are aggressively positioning for further downside.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 5.0 within 6 months as the technical setup improves and hedging demand normalizes.
CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can also signal near-term capitulation, where the heaviest bearish positioning coincides with a price bottom before a sharp reversal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Strong margins: 41%
Growth
0.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 9.1 |
| growth rank | 0.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 8.8 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.28
Upside
+4.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.28 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Quality at 7.4, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 0.4, Technical at 2.4, and Momentum at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Compounder Fundamentals
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Oversold Technical Setup
Trip ifRSI remains below 30 for more than 60 consecutive days without a reversal above 35.
- P4Elevated Options Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio exceeds 20.0 on rising open interest for more than 30 consecutive days.