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Grindr Inc. (GRND) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Wait for pullback to $12.95. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $13.02. Engine's entry $12.95 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Grindr operates a global LGBTQ-focused social networking platform with 15.0M average MAUs and 1.3M average paying users in 2025, present in 190+ countries. Revenue comes from direct streams (premium subscriptions/add-ons) and indirect streams (advertising); the app is free with... Read more

$13.02+22.1% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#6 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.15%
Entry $12.95(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $11.69Target $15.83(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1Setup A.R:R 6.9:1
Analyst target$18.20+39.8%5 analysts
$15.83our TP
$13.02price
$18.20mean
$22

Wait for pullback to $12.95. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $13.02. Engine's entry $12.95 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.26, quality 8.9/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Grindr Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.9 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 470.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.5
P/E (Fwd)17.0
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA17.7
Profit Mgn19.9%
ROE58.9%
Rev Growth38.3%
Beta0.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$6-53.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierApple App Store and Google Play Store
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely primarily on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store for distribution of and access to our products and services, and as the channels for processing substantially all direct consumer payments'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.94Resistance $15.18

Price Targets

$12
$13
$16
A.Upside+21.6%
A.R:R2.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)6.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRND stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $12.95. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $13.02. Engine's entry $12.95 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.26, quality 8.9/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $15.83 (+21.6%), stop $11.69 (−11.4%), Setup A.R:R 6.9:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GRND stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.83 (+22.1% upside). Target $15.83 (+21.6%), stop $11.69 (−11.4%), Setup A.R:R 6.9:1. Stop-loss: $11.69.

What are the risks of investing in GRND?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 470.8): -1.5.

Is GRND overvalued or undervalued?

Grindr Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.5 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GRND?

11 analysts cover GRND with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Grindr Inc. do?Grindr operates a global LGBTQ-focused social networking platform with 15.0M average MAUs and 1.3M average paying users...

Grindr operates a global LGBTQ-focused social networking platform with 15.0M average MAUs and 1.3M average paying users in 2025, present in 190+ countries. Revenue comes from direct streams (premium subscriptions/add-ons) and indirect streams (advertising); the app is free with paid upgrades for enhanced features.

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