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Grindr Inc. (GRND) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

Grindr operates a global LGBTQ-focused mobile social networking platform with 15.0M average MAUs in 2025 across 190+ countries, up 5.2% YoY. Revenue comes from direct (subscription/premium features, 1.3M paying users) and indirect (advertising) streams. The platform relies... Read more

$13.22+19.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#20 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $12.26Target $15.66(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$18.00+36.2%5 analysts
$15.66our TP
$13.22price
$18.00mean
$22

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store
Leverage penalty (D/E 8.5): -1.5
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.9
P/E (Fwd)17.5
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA20.2
Profit Mgn21.5%
ROE
Rev Growth29.0%
Beta0.21
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.46bearish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$30+126.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierApple App Store and Google Play Store
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely primarily on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store for distribution of and access to our products and services, and as the channels for processing substantially all direct consumer payments'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.5
Support Resistance
3.5
Bollinger
3.7

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.1
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
6.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.79Resistance $13.90

Price Targets

$12
$16
A.Upside+18.5%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRND stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Prior stop was $12.26. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GRND stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.66 (+19.0% upside). Prior stop was $12.26. Stop-loss: $12.26.

What are the risks of investing in GRND?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Leverage penalty (D/E 8.5): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is GRND overvalued or undervalued?

Grindr Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.9 (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GRND?

11 analysts cover GRND with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Grindr Inc. do?Grindr operates a global LGBTQ-focused mobile social networking platform with 15.0M average MAUs in 2025 across 190+...

Grindr operates a global LGBTQ-focused mobile social networking platform with 15.0M average MAUs in 2025 across 190+ countries, up 5.2% YoY. Revenue comes from direct (subscription/premium features, 1.3M paying users) and indirect (advertising) streams. The platform relies almost exclusively on Apple App Store and Google Play Store for distribution and payment processing.

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