Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the SW stock price target?

Take-profit $46.70 (+25.0% upside). Prior stop was $35.28.

Q: Is SW overvalued or undervalued?

Smurfit WestRock plc trades at a P/E of 51.9 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about SW?

25 analysts cover SW with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $54.

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 1 days ago (May 19, 2026, 6:21 AM ET)

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.33: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

$37.33+25.0% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#16 of 16 Packaging & Containers

QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.94%

IncomeYield4.84%(5y avg 3.62%)Payout242.32%at-risk

Stop $35.28Target $46.70(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1

Analyst target$53.68+43.8%14 analysts

$46.70our TP

$37.33price

$53.68mean

$62

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Smurfit WestRock plc

Latest news

Smurfit WestRock Intends To Delist From The London Stock Exchange — benzinga May 20, 2026 negative
Citigroup Maintains Buy on Smurfit WestRock, Lowers Price Target to $51 — benzinga May 4, 2026 neutral
JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Smurfit WestRock, Lowers Price Target to $62 — benzinga May 1, 2026 neutral
RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Smurfit WestRock, Lowers Price Target to $53 — benzinga May 1, 2026 positive
Earnings Scheduled For April 30, 2026 — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 neutral

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)51.9

P/E (Fwd)11.7

Mkt Cap$19.6B

EV/EBITDA7.0

Profit Mgn1.2%

ROE2.1%

Rev Growth0.7%

Beta0.94

Dividend4.84%

Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral

IV50%normal

Max Pain$25-33.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
.** **Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.** On February 25, 2026, Terrell K.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.315%1.25

Quality3.715%0.56

Growth2.715%0.41

Momentum1.410%0.14

Sentiment7.810%0.78

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.310%0.33

Technical Setup7.55%0.38

Risk Profile5.25%0.26

Catalyst3.05%0.15

Overall (Σ contributions)4.74

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Volume

1.7

Rsi

3.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth

2.7

Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History

0.0

Surprise Avg

0.0

Erm

5.0

Earnings Timing

5.0

Dividend Safety

5.2

Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 484.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

2.2

Growth Rank

2.5

Value Rank

3.5

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Net Margin

0.6

Roe

0.7

Roa

2.0

Operating Margin

2.7

Moat

4.5

Current Ratio

5.3

Piotroski F

7.8

Fcf Quality

10.0

Excellent cash conversion: 358% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate

RSI

39 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $36.37Resistance $42.67

Price Targets

$35

$47

A.Upside+25.1%

A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

0/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is SW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.33: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $35.28. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.70 (+25.0% upside). Prior stop was $35.28. Stop-loss: $35.28.

What are the risks of investing in SW?

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is SW overvalued or undervalued?

Smurfit WestRock plc trades at a P/E of 51.9 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SW?

25 analysts cover SW with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Smurfit WestRock plc do?Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated...

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.