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Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.80: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces... Read more

$37.80+25.5% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#13 of 16 Packaging & Containers
Stop $35.59Target $47.45(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$54.54+44.3%14 analysts
$47.45our TP
$37.80price
$54.54mean
$64

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.80: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.8
P/E (Fwd)12.7
Mkt Cap$20.8B
EV/EBITDA7.2
Profit Mgn2.2%
ROE3.9%
Rev Growth0.5%
Beta1.05
Dividend4.56%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$25-33.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    .** **Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.** On February 25, 2026, Terrell K.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.6

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.8
Value Rank
3.1
Growth Rank
3.8

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.1
Roe
1.3
Roa
2.1
Operating Margin
2.5
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.4
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 209% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
5.1
Obv
9.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.69Resistance $43.45

Price Targets

$36
$47
A.Upside+25.5%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.80: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $35.59. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.45 (+25.5% upside). Prior stop was $35.59. Stop-loss: $35.59.

What are the risks of investing in SW?

Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is SW overvalued or undervalued?

Smurfit WestRock plc trades at a P/E of 29.8 (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SW?

26 analysts cover SW with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $55.

What does Smurfit WestRock plc do?Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated...

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

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