Marriott Vacations Worldwide has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters and maintains strong price momentum above its 200-day moving average, but the current share price is roughly 20% above the analyst consensus target and the vacation ownership segment represents 95% of revenue — a single-product concentration that amplifies macro risk.
Thesis pillars
- Vacation Ownership Concentration→Stable
- Earnings Beat Consistency↓Deteriorating
- Negative Risk Reward At Peak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co (VAC) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.99 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%).
Marriott Vacations Worldwide develops, sells, finances, and manages vacation ownership interests under Marriott, Westin, Sheraton, Hyatt, and Ritz-Carlton brands at 120 resorts serving roughly 700,000 owner families. The Vacation Ownership segment generated $4,805 million of the... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.99 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co
About Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co
Marriott Vacations Worldwide generated $5,018 million in total segment revenue for 2025: the Vacation Ownership segment contributed $4,805 million across 120 resorts and roughly 700,000 owner families globally, while the Exchange & Third-Party Management segment contributed $213 million through the Interval International network's 3,200+ affiliated resorts and 1.5 million members. Vacation Ownership revenue included $1,464 million in VOI sales, $633 million in resort management fees, $615 million in rentals, $360 million in financing income, and $1,733 million in cost reimbursements. Approximately 70% of 2025 VOI sales came from existing owners, who carry lower sales and marketing costs than first-time buyers.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide earns revenue from five sources within Vacation Ownership: VOI sales at branded resorts (the most capital-intensive stream), resort management fees from owners' associations, rental income from units held for exchange or sale, financing income on notes receivable originated at purchase — with the company financing more than half of VOI sales through developer-originated notes — and cost reimbursements from associations. The company licenses brand marks from Marriott International under an agreement expiring in 2095 and from Hyatt under an agreement expiring in 2093; these licenses provide access to Marriott Bonvoy's approximately 271 million members and the World of Hyatt's approximately 63 million members, which serve as the primary channel-efficiency driver for VOI sales. The exchange segment generates higher-margin recurring fees but has seen moderated demand over the past five years. Interval International's principal competitor is RCI, LLC, a subsidiary of Travel + Leisure Co., which has more affiliated resorts than Interval International.
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Consumer discretionary spending risk is the most direct demand-side exposure for Marriott Vacations Worldwide: a substantial amount of VOI sales activity occurs on-site at resorts, making resort visit volume a key revenue driver. The company finances more than half of VOI sales through developer-originated notes receivable; if consumer delinquency rates rise, performance covenants in the company's vacation ownership ABS programs could restrict cash flow until portfolio quality improves. The 10-K also notes that rapid governmental policy changes — including modifications to visa processing, border controls, and trade policies — could negatively impact consumer willingness to travel to the company's resort destinations. Matthew Avril became permanent CEO on February 16, 2026, after serving as interim CEO since November 2025; Michael Flaskey joined as President and COO on the same date.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
From Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co
Latest news
- NEWS Marriott to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock? - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Marriott to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock? - tradingview.com — tradingview.com neutral
- NEWS Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp (VAC) Financial Health: Profitability & Balance Sheet Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Will Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) beat estimates again in its next earnings report? - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Will Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-08-15T08:37:18Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductVacation Ownership segment95%10-K Item 1: 'The Vacation Ownership segment represented 95% of our consolidated revenue for 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved the Second Amended and Restated 2020 Equity Incentive Plan at the 2026 Annual Meeting (May 15, 2026). Plan extends through May 15, 2036; increases authorized shares by 2,500,000. No officer departure or appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.99 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $112.52. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $128.71 (-17.8% upside). Prior stop was $112.52. Stop-loss: $112.52.
Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover VAC with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $114.
What does Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co do?Marriott Vacations Worldwide develops, sells, finances, and manages vacation ownership interests under Marriott,...
Marriott Vacations Worldwide develops, sells, finances, and manages vacation ownership interests under Marriott, Westin, Sheraton, Hyatt, and Ritz-Carlton brands at 120 resorts serving roughly 700,000 owner families. The Vacation Ownership segment generated $4,805 million of the company's $5,018 million total 2025 segment revenue (95% consolidated); the Exchange & Third-Party Management segment operates the Interval International network with more than 3,200 affiliated resorts and 1.5 million members.