Skip to main content

Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $86.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaiian market; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak).

Boyd Gaming operates 27 brick-and-mortar casinos across 11 states including Nevada, plus online gaming through Boyd Interactive. Gaming revenues generated approximately 64% of total revenues in 2025 across four segments: Las Vegas Locals, Downtown Las Vegas, Midwest & South, and... Read more

$86.29+1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#8 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
Stop $80.67Target $87.63(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$93.93+8.9%15 analysts
$87.63our TP
$86.29price
$93.93mean
$81
$110

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $86.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaiian market; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.60)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaiian market
Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)3.8
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn44.8%
ROE
Rev Growth0.6%
Beta1.19
Dividend0.86%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.34bullish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$60-30.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicHawaiian market
    10-K Item 1A: 'draw a substantial portion of their customers from the Hawaiian market ... comprising approximately half of the room nights sold at each property'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-24Item 5.02LOW
    Stephen Thompson, Chief Administrative Officer, announced retirement effective March 31, 2026. Reason: personal. No disagreement with the Company. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
2.9

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.8
Volume
2.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $80.10Resistance $89.42

Price Targets

$81
$88
A.Upside+1.6%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 11x vs trail 4x (2.9x)
! Target reached (-2.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BYD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $86.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaiian market; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $87.63 (+1.6%), stop $80.67 (−7.0%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BYD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $87.63 (+1.6% upside). Target $87.63 (+1.6%), stop $80.67 (−7.0%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $80.67.

What are the risks of investing in BYD?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaiian market; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is BYD overvalued or undervalued?

Boyd Gaming Corporation trades at a P/E of 3.8 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BYD?

21 analysts cover BYD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $94.

What does Boyd Gaming Corporation do?Boyd Gaming operates 27 brick-and-mortar casinos across 11 states including Nevada, plus online gaming through Boyd...

Boyd Gaming operates 27 brick-and-mortar casinos across 11 states including Nevada, plus online gaming through Boyd Interactive. Gaming revenues generated approximately 64% of total revenues in 2025 across four segments: Las Vegas Locals, Downtown Las Vegas, Midwest & South, and Online.

Related stocks: LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp.) · MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · MGM (MGM Resorts International) · VAC (Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co)