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Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. At $79.00, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaiian market; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak).

Boyd Gaming operates 27 brick-and-mortar casinos across 11 states including Nevada, plus online gaming through Boyd Interactive. Gaming revenues generated approximately 64% of total revenues in 2025 across four segments: Las Vegas Locals, Downtown Las Vegas, Midwest & South, and... Read more

$79.00+6.9% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#10 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.17%
IncomeYield0.96%(5y avg 2.10%)Payout3.27%sustainable
Stop $76.15Target $84.54(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$93.93+18.9%15 analysts
$84.54our TP
$79.00price
$93.93mean
$110

Sell if holding. At $79.00, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaiian market; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val7.5Qual6.5Grw2.8Mom1.6Sent6.6Ins3.4Peer5.2Tech8.8Risk6.95.3OVERALL

Recent Developments — Boyd Gaming Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 77%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaiian market
Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak)
Thin upside margin: 6.9%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)3.5
P/E (Fwd)10.1
Mkt Cap$5.9B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn44.8%
ROE94.3%
Rev Growth0.6%
Beta1.12
Dividend0.96%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV36%normal
Max Pain$115+45.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicHawaiian market
    10-K Item 1A: 'draw a substantial portion of their customers from the Hawaiian market ... comprising approximately half of the room nights sold at each property'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-24Item 5.02LOW
    Stephen Thompson, Chief Administrative Officer, announced retirement effective March 31, 2026. Reason: personal. No disagreement with the Company. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.8
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
2.9
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
23 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $78.51Resistance $89.42

Price Targets

$76
$85
A.Upside+7.0%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 10x vs trail 3x (2.9x)
! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BYD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $79.00, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaiian market; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $76.15. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the BYD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $84.54 (+6.9% upside). Prior stop was $76.15. Stop-loss: $76.15.

What are the risks of investing in BYD?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaiian market; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 6.9%.

Is BYD overvalued or undervalued?

Boyd Gaming Corporation trades at a P/E of 3.5 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BYD?

21 analysts cover BYD with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $94.

What does Boyd Gaming Corporation do?Boyd Gaming operates 27 brick-and-mortar casinos across 11 states including Nevada, plus online gaming through Boyd...

Boyd Gaming operates 27 brick-and-mortar casinos across 11 states including Nevada, plus online gaming through Boyd Interactive. Gaming revenues generated approximately 64% of total revenues in 2025 across four segments: Las Vegas Locals, Downtown Las Vegas, Midwest & South, and Online.

Related stocks: LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp.) · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) · RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.)