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Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $118.96 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away).

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. was incorporated in Nevada in 1993 and, along with its consolidated subsidiaries, is referred to collectively in this Annual Report on Form 10-K as "Monarch," "the Company," "we," "our," and "us." Monarch owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort... Read more

$118.96-0.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
Stop $111.82Target $118.22(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$113.17-4.9%6 analysts
$118.22our TP
$118.96price
$113.17mean
$99
$125

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $118.96 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.4% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.2
P/E (Fwd)17.5
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn19.6%
ROE20.1%
Rev Growth8.9%
Beta1.34
Dividend1.00%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.37bullish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$55-53.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.6
Bollinger
1.2
52w Position
9.7
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
84 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $91.55Resistance $120.63

Price Targets

$112
$118
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $118.96 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $111.82. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.22 (-0.6% upside). Prior stop was $111.82. Stop-loss: $111.82.

What are the risks of investing in MCRI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.4% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5.

Is MCRI overvalued or undervalued?

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCRI?

12 analysts cover MCRI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $113.

What does Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. do?Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. was incorporated in Nevada in 1993 and, along with its consolidated subsidiaries, is...

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. was incorporated in Nevada in 1993 and, along with its consolidated subsidiaries, is referred to collectively in this Annual Report on Form 10-K as "Monarch," "the Company," "we," "our," and "us." Monarch owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel and casino in Reno, Nevada (the "Atlantis") and the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk (the "Monarch Black Hawk"), a hotel and casino in Black Hawk, Colorado.

Related stocks: MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · PENN (PENN Entertainment, Inc.) · MGM (MGM Resorts International) · VAC (Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co) · RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.)