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Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $118.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.6% away).

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. was incorporated in Nevada in 1993 and, along with its consolidated subsidiaries, is referred to collectively in this Annual Report on Form 10-K as "Monarch," "the Company," "we," "our," and "us." Monarch owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort... Read more

$118.17+0.7% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#3 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.15%
IncomeYield1.00%Payout20.34%sustainable
Stop $112.63Target $118.95(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$113.17-4.2%6 analysts
$118.95our TP
$118.17price
$113.17mean
$99
$125

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $118.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.6% away). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.6% away)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.4
P/E (Fwd)17.7
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn19.6%
ROE20.1%
Rev Growth8.9%
Beta1.36
Dividend1.00%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV33%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $103.00Resistance $121.38

Price Targets

$113
$119
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.7% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCRI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $118.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.6% away). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $118.95 (+0.7%), stop $112.63 (−4.9%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 6.3/10, high confidence.

What is the MCRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.95 (+0.7% upside). Target $118.95 (+0.7%), stop $112.63 (−4.9%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $112.63.

What are the risks of investing in MCRI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.6% away); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is MCRI overvalued or undervalued?

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MCRI?

12 analysts cover MCRI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $113.

What does Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. do?Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. was incorporated in Nevada in 1993 and, along with its consolidated subsidiaries, is...

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. was incorporated in Nevada in 1993 and, along with its consolidated subsidiaries, is referred to collectively in this Annual Report on Form 10-K as "Monarch," "the Company," "we," "our," and "us." Monarch owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel and casino in Reno, Nevada (the "Atlantis") and the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk (the "Monarch Black Hawk"), a hotel and casino in Black Hawk, Colorado.

Related stocks: MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.) · HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) · CZR (Caesars Entertainment, Inc.) · WYNN (Wynn Resorts, Limited)