Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
VAC · Why this verdict
Why Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The vacation ownership segment accounts for 95% of total revenue, making essentially all of the company's financial results dependent on a single business line that is highly sensitive to consumer discretionary spending and financing costs. Bear case | Revenue diversification outside the vacation ownership segment should grow to represent at least 8% of total revenue within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep focus on a single high-margin business model with a strong brand affiliation (Marriott) can be a competitive strength rather than a weakness, as it enables operational expertise and brand premium pricing. | ||
Marriott Vacations beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, demonstrating operational delivery above analyst expectations in its core vacation ownership business. Earnings | The company should beat consensus earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a -27.3% EPS miss, and the average surprise across all 4 quarters is essentially flat at 0.1%, suggesting the beat pattern is not uniform or consistently positive. | ||
The stock is trading 20.3% above the analyst consensus price target and within 2.2% of its 52-week high, meaning the market has priced well beyond what analysts believe the business is worth, leaving downside risk of 15% to the stop-loss without proportionate upside. Warnings | Either the price corrects below $90 or analyst targets are revised upward by at least 25% within 12 months to restore an acceptable risk/reward ratio. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks can trade above analyst targets for extended periods when institutional momentum and positive sentiment are aligned, particularly if management provides guidance above current consensus at the next earnings call. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 76, near its 52-week high, and carries 11% short interest — a combination that suggests both downside vulnerability and potential volatility from short-covering if the thesis plays out. Key risks | Short interest should decline below 7% and the RSI should normalize between 50 and 65 within the next 6 months as the price stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and bullish MACD signal indicate genuine institutional buying support, and 11% short interest in a consumer cyclical company is not extreme enough to indicate a consensus bearish view. | ||
The vacation ownership segment accounts for 95% of total revenue, making essentially all of the company's financial results dependent on a single business line that is highly sensitive to consumer discretionary spending and financing costs.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue diversification outside the vacation ownership segment should grow to represent at least 8% of total revenue within 12 months.
CounterDeep focus on a single high-margin business model with a strong brand affiliation (Marriott) can be a competitive strength rather than a weakness, as it enables operational expertise and brand premium pricing.
Marriott Vacations beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, demonstrating operational delivery above analyst expectations in its core vacation ownership business.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should beat consensus earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a -27.3% EPS miss, and the average surprise across all 4 quarters is essentially flat at 0.1%, suggesting the beat pattern is not uniform or consistently positive.
The stock is trading 20.3% above the analyst consensus price target and within 2.2% of its 52-week high, meaning the market has priced well beyond what analysts believe the business is worth, leaving downside risk of 15% to the stop-loss without proportionate upside.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Either the price corrects below $90 or analyst targets are revised upward by at least 25% within 12 months to restore an acceptable risk/reward ratio.
CounterStocks can trade above analyst targets for extended periods when institutional momentum and positive sentiment are aligned, particularly if management provides guidance above current consensus at the next earnings call.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 76, near its 52-week high, and carries 11% short interest — a combination that suggests both downside vulnerability and potential volatility from short-covering if the thesis plays out.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline below 7% and the RSI should normalize between 50 and 65 within the next 6 months as the price stabilizes.
CounterRising on-balance volume and bullish MACD signal indicate genuine institutional buying support, and 11% short interest in a consumer cyclical company is not extreme enough to indicate a consensus bearish view.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Marriott Vacations Worldwide has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters and maintains strong price momentum above its 200-day moving average, but the current share price is roughly 20% above the analyst consensus target and the vacation ownership segment represents 95% of revenue — a single-product concentration that amplifies macro risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 5.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.2 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 6%, FCF yield 6.0%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 0.7 |
| OBV | 6.1 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 3.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.5 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 319.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.51
Upside
-21.9%
Downside
14.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.51 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.8, Growth at 6.2, and Sentiment at 6.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.1, Quality at 4.3, and Momentum at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Vacation Ownership Concentration
Trip ifVacation ownership segment revenue share rises above 97%, more than 2 percentage points above the current 95%.
- P3Negative Risk Reward At Peak
Trip ifPrice drops below $88.65, more than 7% below the current $95.32.
- P4Short Interest And Momentum
Trip ifShort interest rises above 16%, exceeding the current 11% level.