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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co (VAC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $70.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.5%.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide is a leading global vacation ownership company with 120 resorts and ~700,000 owner families, plus the Interval International exchange network of 3,200+ affiliated resorts with 1.5M members. Revenue of ~$5.0B in 2025 is 95% from the Vacation Ownership... Read more

$70.88+3.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#8 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.53%
IncomeYield4.51%(5y avg 1.52%)Payout69.15%
Stop $65.92Target $73.34(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$84.30+18.9%10 analysts
$73.34our TP
$70.88price
$84.30mean
$51
$105

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $70.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.5%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%)
Thin upside margin: 3.5%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn-10.3%
ROE-15.5%
Rev Growth0.0%
Beta1.21
Dividend4.51%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductVacation Ownership segment95%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Vacation Ownership segment represented 95% of our consolidated revenue for 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    James H. Hunter IV (EVP, General Counsel and Secretary) resigned at the Company's request, effective March 9, 2026 with employment ending April 1, 2026. Severance of $1.5M (1.5x base salary plus target bonus). No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    On Feb 16, 2026, Matthew E. Avril (interim President/CEO since Nov 2025) was confirmed as CEO, effective immediately. Michael A. Flaskey was also appointed President and Chief Operating Officer effective Feb 16, 2026. No reason cited for prior CEO exit.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.2
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $66.67Resistance $81.19

Price Targets

$66
$73
A.Upside+3.5%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VAC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $70.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.5%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $73.34 (+3.5%), stop $65.92 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the VAC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $73.34 (+3.5% upside). Target $73.34 (+3.5%), stop $65.92 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $65.92.

What are the risks of investing in VAC?

Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

Is VAC overvalued or undervalued?

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VAC?

15 analysts cover VAC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $84.

What does Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co do?Marriott Vacations Worldwide is a leading global vacation ownership company with 120 resorts and ~700,000 owner...

Marriott Vacations Worldwide is a leading global vacation ownership company with 120 resorts and ~700,000 owner families, plus the Interval International exchange network of 3,200+ affiliated resorts with 1.5M members. Revenue of ~$5.0B in 2025 is 95% from the Vacation Ownership segment (VOI sales, resort management, rental, financing); Exchange & Third-Party Management provides the remaining 4%.

Related stocks: MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · WYNN (Wynn Resorts, Limited) · HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) · RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.)