Skip to main content

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co (VAC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide develops, sells, and manages vacation ownership under Marriott Vacation Club, Sheraton, Westin, Hyatt, and Ritz-Carlton brands. Revenue splits between Vacation Ownership (96%, $4.8B) and Exchange & Third-Party Management (4%, $213M). The company... Read more

$71.75+11.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#8 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
Stop $66.59Target $79.57(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$77.90+8.6%10 analysts
$79.57our TP
$71.75price
$77.90mean
$50
$105

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA12.8
Profit Mgn-9.2%
ROE-13.8%
Rev Growth-2.7%
Beta1.20
Dividend4.68%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$50-30.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    James H Hunter IV, EVP General Counsel and Secretary, resigned at the Company request effective March 9, 2026; employment ends April 1, 2026. Severance of $1,500,504. No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    Matthew E. Avril appointed permanent CEO effective February 16, 2026, having served as interim President and CEO since November 9, 2025. Clean handoff; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.4
Growth Rank
0.8
Value Rank
5.8
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $64.32Resistance $81.19

Price Targets

$67
$80
A.Upside+10.9%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.3% upside)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VAC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $66.59. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the VAC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $79.57 (+11.1% upside). Prior stop was $66.59. Stop-loss: $66.59.

What are the risks of investing in VAC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is VAC overvalued or undervalued?

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VAC?

15 analysts cover VAC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $78.

What does Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co do?Marriott Vacations Worldwide develops, sells, and manages vacation ownership under Marriott Vacation Club, Sheraton,...

Marriott Vacations Worldwide develops, sells, and manages vacation ownership under Marriott Vacation Club, Sheraton, Westin, Hyatt, and Ritz-Carlton brands. Revenue splits between Vacation Ownership (96%, $4.8B) and Exchange & Third-Party Management (4%, $213M). The company finances more than half of VOI sales through notes receivable it then securitizes.

Related stocks: MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · MGM (MGM Resorts International) · PENN (PENN Entertainment, Inc.) · RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.)