Upbound Group trades at an extremely cheap forward P/E of 3.9x with a PEG of just 0.09 and 35% analyst upside, converting 1,000% of net income to free cash flow, but a confirmed death cross, 3 consecutive earnings misses by an average of 72%, and high implied volatility of 110% create substantial near-term execution uncertainty.
Thesis pillars
- Extreme Valuation Discount Peg Near Zero↑Improving
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Three Consecutive Large Earnings Misses→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.50: Risk below floor (2.4 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 14.50; Negative price momentum. (Note: Risk dimension 2.4/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.)
Upbound Group is a lease-to-own provider operating through its Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico segments, giving underserved consumers access to name-brand durable goods via flexible lease-purchase agreements plus, through Brigit, earned-wage-access and credit-building... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.50: Risk below floor (2.4 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 14.50; Negative price momentum. (Note: Risk dimension 2.4/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Upbound Group, Inc.
About Upbound Group, Inc.
Upbound Group's Acima segment offers lease-to-own financing through third-party retailers at thousands of store locations, complementing its Rent-A-Center chain of company-owned and franchised stores, its Brigit financial-wellness app acquired January 31, 2025, and a smaller Mexico segment. Substantially all of the company's revenue over the past three years originated in the United States. Merchandise purchases in 2025 were concentrated in three brands: Ashley Furniture Industries (37%), LG Electronics (11%), and Whirlpool (10%).
Revenue comes from lease-purchase payments collected weekly, bi-weekly, semi-monthly, or monthly, with customers able to obtain ownership through an early purchase option or by completing all required lease renewals; Acima generally purchases merchandise at retail prices from third-party retailers while Rent-A-Center buys at wholesale for its company-owned and franchised stores. Brigit contributes revenue through free and paid subscription tiers — Brigit Plus and Brigit Premium — that bundle Instant Cash earned-wage advances, Credit Builder loans originated through a bank partner, and identity theft protection. The Rent-A-Center segment also collects franchise royalties based on a percentage of franchisees' monthly gross revenue. Upbound competes against other lease-to-own operators, traditional retailers, and Buy-Now-Pay-Later and subprime-lending fintechs, targeting a subprime population that Fair Isaac Corporation estimated at approximately 26% of the U.S. population in September 2025.
Show full overview
Upbound's Rent-A-Center and Mexico merchandise purchasing is concentrated in a small number of brands rather than diversified across many vendors, with a single furniture manufacturer supplying more than a third of 2025 purchases. The company does not maintain written contracts obligating Ashley Furniture Industries, LG Electronics, Whirlpool, or its other suppliers to continue selling to it, and purchases are made on open account terms that key vendors could tighten — through standby letters of credit, advance payment, or a halt in shipments — if they grow concerned about Upbound's financial position, a risk distinct from the company's own consumer credit-decisioning exposure.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Upbound Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Upbound Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Upbound Group Q1 2026 earnings preview - MSN — MSN neutral
- NEWS Upbound (UPBD) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool neutral
- NEWS Upbound Group (NASDAQ:UPBD) Raised to Hold at Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Upbound teams with Amazon for in-store pickup, return services - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS UPBOUND GROUP, INC. ($UPBD) Former CEO 2025 Pay Revealed - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T06:22:14Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States10-K Item 1: 'Substantially all of our revenues for the past three years originated in the United States.'
- MEDIUMSupplierAshley Furniture Industries37%10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, approximately 37%, 11% and 10% of our merchandise purchases were attributable to Ashley Furniture Industries, LG Electronics and Whirlpool, respectively.'
- LOWSupplierLG Electronics11%10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, approximately 37%, 11% and 10% of our merchandise purchases were attributable to Ashley Furniture Industries, LG Electronics and Whirlpool, respectively.'
- LOWSupplierWhirlpool10%10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, approximately 37%, 11% and 10% of our merchandise purchases were attributable to Ashley Furniture Industries, LG Electronics and Whirlpool, respectively.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-03Item 5.02LOWAt the June 2, 2026 Annual Meeting, stockholders approved the 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan authorizing up to 4,590,636 shares; the prior 2021 LTIP was closed to new awards and remaining shares cancelled.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-19Item 5.02MEDIUMEVP, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary Bryan Pechersky notified the company of his resignation on May 15, 2026, effective June 5, 2026. No disagreement with the company cited; no successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.50: Risk below floor (2.4 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 14.50; Negative price momentum. (Note: Risk dimension 2.4/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $19.03. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $24.92 (+21.8% upside). Prior stop was $19.03. Stop-loss: $19.03.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Risk below floor (2.4 < 3.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-5.4% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -0.4%), Material insider selling (13 sells, 0.66% of cap).
Upbound Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.6 (forward 4.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover UPBD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $29.
What does Upbound Group, Inc. do?Upbound Group is a lease-to-own provider operating through its Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico segments,...
Upbound Group is a lease-to-own provider operating through its Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico segments, giving underserved consumers access to name-brand durable goods via flexible lease-purchase agreements plus, through Brigit, earned-wage-access and credit-building products. The company generates revenue from lease payments and merchandise sales across thousands of third-party retailer locations and company-owned stores, with substantially all revenue originating in the United States.