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HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

VTEX combines a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak with an asymmetry-gate-passing valuation and strong cash conversion, but moderate insider selling, rising leverage, and thin analyst coverage temper conviction in the 26% modeled upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Asymmetry Clears Engine Gate→Stable
  • Attractive Valuation Low Peg↓Deteriorating
  • Excellent Cash Conversion And Piotroski Score→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

VTEX (VTEX) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

VTEX, together with its subsidiaries, provides software-as-a-service digital commerce platform for enterprise brands and retailers. It provides VTEX platform that enables customers to execute commerce strategy, including building online stores, and integrating and managing... Read more

$4.18+15.9% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#4 of 118 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.99%
Stop $3.92Target $4.85(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$5.57+33.3%10 analysts
$4.85our TP
$4.18price
$5.57mean
$12

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202623d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Earnings estimates trending DOWN
Overbought (RSI 88)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.6
P/E (Fwd)14.6
Mkt Cap$685M
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn12.0%
ROE12.8%
Rev Growth9.5%
Beta0.93
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C3.00bearish

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
2.9
52w Position
7.7
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 8.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 23d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
88 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $3.54Resistance $4.44

Price Targets

$4
$5
A.Upside+15.9%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (23d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VTEX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $4.85 (+16.0%), stop $3.92 (−6.6%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VTEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $4.85 (+15.9% upside). Target $4.85 (+16.0%), stop $3.92 (−6.6%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $3.92.

What are the risks of investing in VTEX?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Overbought (RSI 88).

Is VTEX overvalued or undervalued?

VTEX trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VTEX?

16 analysts cover VTEX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $6.

What does VTEX do?VTEX, together with its subsidiaries, provides software-as-a-service digital commerce platform for enterprise brands...

VTEX, together with its subsidiaries, provides software-as-a-service digital commerce platform for enterprise brands and retailers. It provides VTEX platform that enables customers to execute commerce strategy, including building online stores, and integrating and managing orders across channels, as well as creating marketplaces to sell products from third-party vendors. The company also offers customer support services; and optional services, such as project management, solutions architecting, and implementation consulting services. It serves its products to home appliances, apparel and accessories, beauty and health, electronics, grocery, department stores, and toys and hobbies, as well as home, furniture, and decoration markets. The company has operations in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, France, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Portugal, Romania, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. VTEX was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands.

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