Skip to main content

Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $19.03. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $19.91. Engine's entry $19.03 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.4% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 2.4%).

Upbound Group, Inc., a technology and data-driven company, provides financial solutions in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico. The company also provides furniture, including mattresses, tires,... Read more

$19.91+29.8% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#19 of 96 Software - Application
Entry $19.03(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $17.41Target $24.79(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1Setup A.R:R 4.3:1
Analyst target$28.50+43.1%7 analysts
$24.79our TP
$19.91price
$28.50mean
$41

Wait for pullback to $19.03. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $19.91. Engine's entry $19.03 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.4% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 2.4%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.4% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 2.4%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.2
P/E (Fwd)3.9
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn1.6%
ROE11.1%
Rev Growth10.9%
Beta1.86
Dividend8.25%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$3-87.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.2
Support Resistance
2.5
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.1

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Rsi
3.5
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
7.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $16.71Resistance $20.99

Price Targets

$17
$19
$25
A.Upside+24.5%
A.R:R1.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UPBD stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $19.03. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $19.91. Engine's entry $19.03 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.4% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 2.4%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $24.79 (+24.5%), stop $17.41 (−14.4%), Setup A.R:R 4.3:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UPBD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.79 (+29.8% upside). Target $24.79 (+24.5%), stop $17.41 (−14.4%), Setup A.R:R 4.3:1. Stop-loss: $17.41.

What are the risks of investing in UPBD?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.4% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 2.4%).

Is UPBD overvalued or undervalued?

Upbound Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.2 (forward 3.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about UPBD?

13 analysts cover UPBD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Upbound Group, Inc. do?Upbound Group, Inc., a technology and data-driven company, provides financial solutions in the United States, Puerto...

Upbound Group, Inc., a technology and data-driven company, provides financial solutions in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico. The company also provides furniture, including mattresses, tires, consumer electronics, appliances, tools, handbags, computers, and accessories. In addition, it offers merchandise on an installment sales basis; and the lease-to-own transaction to consumers who do not qualify for traditional financing, the lease-to-own transaction through staffed or unstaffed kiosks located in third-party retailer's locations, and other virtual options. Further, the company provides various financial health products and tools through mobile and web applications. It operates retail installment sales stores under the Get It Now and Home Choice names; lease-to-own and franchising location under the Rent-A-Centre and RimTyme trade names; and company-owned stores, franchise stores, and e-commerce platform through rentacenter.com, getitnowstores.com, and homechoicestores.com. The company was formerly known as Rent-A-Center, Inc. and changed its name to Upbound Group, Inc. in February 2023. Upbound Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Plano, Texas.

Related stocks: ADEA (Adeia Inc.) · DAVE (Dave Inc.) · PLUS (ePlus inc.) · SPSC (SPS Commerce, Inc.) · MNDY (monday.com Ltd.)