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Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Upbound Group, Inc., a technology and data-driven company, provides financial solutions in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico. The company also provides furniture, including mattresses, tires,... Read more

$17.10+45.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#52 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield155.32%
IncomeYield9.05%(5y avg 5.16%)Payout108.33%at-risk
Stop $16.21Target $24.79(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.0:1
Analyst target$28.50+66.7%7 analysts
$24.79our TP
$17.10price
$28.50mean
$41

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Upbound Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 45%
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.0
P/E (Fwd)3.6
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA5.3
Profit Mgn1.8%
ROE12.1%
Rev Growth3.7%
Beta1.83
Dividend9.05%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.33bearish
IV53%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Obv
5.0
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MDividend: 905.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.8
Quality Rank
4.4
Value Rank
9.4
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $16.71Resistance $20.46

Price Targets

$16
$25
A.Upside+45.0%
A.R:R5.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UPBD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $16.21. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the UPBD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.79 (+45.2% upside). Prior stop was $16.21. Stop-loss: $16.21.

What are the risks of investing in UPBD?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is UPBD overvalued or undervalued?

Upbound Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 3.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UPBD?

13 analysts cover UPBD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Upbound Group, Inc. do?Upbound Group, Inc., a technology and data-driven company, provides financial solutions in the United States, Puerto...

Upbound Group, Inc., a technology and data-driven company, provides financial solutions in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico. The company also provides furniture, including mattresses, tires, consumer electronics, appliances, tools, handbags, computers, and accessories. In addition, it offers merchandise on an installment sales basis; and the lease-to-own transaction to consumers who do not qualify for traditional financing, the lease-to-own transaction through staffed or unstaffed kiosks located in third-party retailer's locations, and other virtual options. Further, the company provides various financial health products and tools through mobile and web applications. It operates retail installment sales stores under the Get It Now and Home Choice names; lease-to-own and franchising location under the Rent-A-Centre and RimTyme trade names; and company-owned stores, franchise stores, and e-commerce platform through rentacenter.com, getitnowstores.com, and homechoicestores.com. The company was formerly known as Rent-A-Center, Inc. and changed its name to Upbound Group, Inc. in February 2023. Upbound Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Plano, Texas.

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