Ulta Beauty trades at a forward P/E of 14.8x with 47% ROE and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but is in a confirmed falling-knife technical pattern below all moving averages with a death cross in place, and its supplier concentration across the top ten brand partners creates a structural vulnerability.
Thesis pillars
- Supplier Concentration Top Ten Brands↓Deteriorating
- Analyst Upside With Earnings Beat Base↓Deteriorating
- High Roe Quality In Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Wait for pullback to $495.07. At $538.76 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $495.07 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.1%.
Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service salons, selling approximately 30,000 products from roughly 600 brands across cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare. The company earns revenue from direct... Read more
Wait for pullback to $495.07. At $538.76 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $495.07 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.1%. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-24Recent Developments — Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS UBER Expands Delivery Options Via ULTA Deal: A Growth Catalyst? - qz.com — qz.com positive
- NEWS BofA reiterates Ulta Beauty stock rating on competitive response - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS Sisters arrested for allegedly stealing $75K in cosmetics from Ulta Beauty stores - AZ Family — AZ Family negative
- NEWS 2 women arrested for allegedly stealing $75K in cosmetics from Ulta Beauty stores - FOX Carolina News — FOX Carolina News negative
- NEWS Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-08-24T20:57:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliertop ten brand partners51%10-K Item 1A: 'merchandise supplied by our top ten brand partners accounted for approximately 51% and 54% of our net sales, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $495.07. At $538.76 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $495.07 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.1%. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $561.08 (+4.1%), stop $459.08 (−17.4%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $561.08 (+4.1% upside). Target $561.08 (+4.1%), stop $459.08 (−17.4%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $459.08.
Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Below 200-MA (11d, -3.0%).
Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.5 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
34 analysts cover ULTA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $623.
What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service...
Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service salons, selling approximately 30,000 products from roughly 600 brands across cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare. The company earns revenue from direct retail sales and salon services, with approximately 95% of Ulta U.S. sales generated by the Ulta Beauty Rewards® loyalty program's 46 million-plus members. International operations include 84 Space NK stores in the U.K. and Ireland.