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Academy Sports and Outdoors, In (ASO) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. At $49.98, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Academy Sports + Outdoors is a full-line sporting goods retailer operating 322 stores in 21 U.S. states as of January 31, 2026, with a primary regional focus in the southern United States including 117 stores in Texas. It generated $6.05 billion in net sales in fiscal 2025... Read more

$49.98+10.6% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#12 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.78%
IncomeYield1.20%Payout9.39%sustainable
Stop $47.29Target $55.28(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$61.42+22.9%19 analysts
$55.28our TP
$49.98price
$61.42mean
$78

Sell if holding. At $49.98, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Academy Sports and Outdoors, In

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 40%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.0
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA7.7
Profit Mgn6.2%
ROE18.0%
Rev Growth2.5%
Beta1.07
Dividend1.20%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$61+22.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.9
Revenue Growth
3.1

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 120.0%
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $48.75Resistance $58.94

Price Targets

$47
$55
A.Upside+10.6%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-09 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $49.98, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $47.29. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the ASO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.28 (+10.6% upside). Prior stop was $47.29. Stop-loss: $47.29.

What are the risks of investing in ASO?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is ASO overvalued or undervalued?

Academy Sports and Outdoors, In trades at a P/E of 9.0 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASO?

22 analysts cover ASO with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Academy Sports and Outdoors, In do?Academy Sports + Outdoors is a full-line sporting goods retailer operating 322 stores in 21 U.S. states as of January...

Academy Sports + Outdoors is a full-line sporting goods retailer operating 322 stores in 21 U.S. states as of January 31, 2026, with a primary regional focus in the southern United States including 117 stores in Texas. It generated $6.05 billion in net sales in fiscal 2025 across outdoor, sports/recreation, apparel, and footwear; no vendor or brand exceeds 12% of purchases or sales.

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