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Academy Sports and Outdoors, In (ASO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $55.12 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Academy Sports and Outdoors is a full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer operating 322 stores in 21 U.S. states as of January 31, 2026, with a regional focus on the southern U.S. Revenue comes from store and digital sales across outdoor (31%), apparel (27%),... Read more

$55.12+8.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#10 of 18 Specialty Retail
Stop $51.54Target $59.55(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$60.50+9.8%18 analysts
$59.55our TP
$55.12price
$60.50mean
$50
$70

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $55.12 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 36%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.6
P/E (Fwd)7.7
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA8.1
Profit Mgn6.2%
ROE18.0%
Rev Growth2.5%
Beta1.22
Dividend1.12%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C4.05bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$40-27.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of the merchandise that we sell...is manufactured in countries such as China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Brazil.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.9
Revenue Growth
3.1
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $53.13Resistance $60.77

Price Targets

$52
$60
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.2% upside)
! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-09 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $55.12 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $51.54. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $59.55 (+8.0% upside). Prior stop was $51.54. Stop-loss: $51.54.

What are the risks of investing in ASO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth.

Is ASO overvalued or undervalued?

Academy Sports and Outdoors, In trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASO?

22 analysts cover ASO with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Academy Sports and Outdoors, In do?Academy Sports and Outdoors is a full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer operating 322 stores in 21...

Academy Sports and Outdoors is a full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer operating 322 stores in 21 U.S. states as of January 31, 2026, with a regional focus on the southern U.S. Revenue comes from store and digital sales across outdoor (31%), apparel (27%), sports and recreation (22%), and footwear (20%) categories; no single vendor exceeds 12% of total purchases.

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