Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $571.34 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78.0%).
Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores (Murphy USA, Murphy Express, QuickChek) across 27 U.S. states, primarily adjacent to Walmart stores. Revenue comes from motor fuel sales (4.8B gallons in 2025) and merchandise; 78% of merchandise is sourced from a... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $571.34 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — Murphy USA Inc.
Latest news
- Murphy USA (MUSA) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance Singapore — Yahoo Finance Singapore positive
- MURPHY USA ($MUSA) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- Murphy USA (MUSA) Q1 2025 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- Murphy USA (MUSA) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- Murphy USA (MUSA) Expected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierCore-Mark78%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, over 78% of our merchandise, including most nicotine products and grocery items, was purchased from a single wholesale grocer, Core-Mark.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02LOWDonald R. Smith Jr. appointed SVP, CFO and Treasurer effective April 3, 2026, converting from Interim CFO (since Oct 2025). Salary set at $550K. No successor needed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $571.34 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $525.77. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $596.95 (+5.6% upside). Prior stop was $525.77. Stop-loss: $525.77.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).
Murphy USA Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.7 (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover MUSA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $558.
What does Murphy USA Inc. do?Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores (Murphy USA, Murphy Express, QuickChek) across 27 U.S....
Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores (Murphy USA, Murphy Express, QuickChek) across 27 U.S. states, primarily adjacent to Walmart stores. Revenue comes from motor fuel sales (4.8B gallons in 2025) and merchandise; 78% of merchandise is sourced from a single wholesale grocer, Core-Mark.