Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Roe Peer Leader→Stable
- Strong Momentum Breakout Setup↓Deteriorating
- Core Mark Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026· older than 90 days
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. At $502.42, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.7%; Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark.
Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores across 27 states under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, with the majority of Murphy-branded locations near Walmart Supercenter stores. The company sold approximately 4.8 billion gallons of motor... Read more
Sell if holding. At $502.42, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.7%; Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 97d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Murphy USA Inc.
About Murphy USA Inc.
Murphy USA's 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores span 27 states, with 380 locations in Texas and 73% of stores on company-owned land. The company sold approximately 4.8 billion gallons of motor fuel through retail outlets in 2025, generating retail fuel margin of 28.1 cents per gallon; merchandise sales averaged $203.7 thousand per store per month. Total employment stood at roughly 16,900 people across the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands.
Revenue flows from high-volume, low-price fuel sales and convenience merchandise, with merchandise margin reaching 20.2% of merchandise sales in 2025. Nicotine products are among the company's highest-volume merchandise categories — though future legislation, tax increases, and anti-nicotine campaigns may impact demand. More than 78% of merchandise is sourced from Core-Mark International, Inc. under a supply contract renewed and extended through 2031 in November 2025; if Core-Mark were unable to fulfill its obligations, alternative suppliers may not be immediately available on similar commercial terms. Murphy USA does not produce or refine petroleum products, competing with integrated oil companies that can offset retail margin pressure through upstream operations, as well as national convenience chains, supermarkets, and discount club stores. Higher fuel prices inflate credit card fees — assessed as a percentage of transaction amounts rather than gross margin — which may weigh on retail profitability in rising-price environments.
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Murphy USA's approximately 100 stores are leased directly from Walmart under a master lease agreement that permits Walmart to terminate at its option under customary circumstances, including events of insolvency, and prohibits store transfers without Walmart's written consent. ECRs on properties purchased from Walmart grant Walmart a right of first refusal on property sales and bar transfers to any Walmart competitor. The filing notes approximately one quarter of leased sites have more than 10 years of term remaining including renewal options, meaning three-quarters face nearer-term renegotiation exposure.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
From Murphy USA Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Murphy USA Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Murphy USA (MUSA) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Murphy USA: Q3 Earnings Snapshot - KVUE — KVUE Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Murphy USA Q3 Net Income Rises to $176 Million - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Murphy USA (MUSA) Lifts Its Dividend, Is The Stock Still Below Fair Value? - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS JPMorgan Chase & Co. Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA) Stock Price - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 22, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierCore-Mark10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, over 78% of our merchandise, including most nicotine products and grocery items, was purchased from a single wholesale grocer, Core-Mark.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02LOWDonald R. Smith, Jr. appointed as SVP, CFO and Treasurer effective April 3, 2026, elevated from Interim CFO role held since October 2025. Previously VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Treasurer. No prior CFO departure cited in this filing.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $502.42, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.7%; Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $467.99. Score 6.3/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $535.92 (+6.7% upside). Prior stop was $467.99. Stop-loss: $467.99.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark; Thin upside margin: 6.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
Murphy USA Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.1 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts rate MUSA, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 10 analysts publish price targets averaging $616.
What does Murphy USA Inc. do?Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores across 27 states under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and...
Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores across 27 states under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, with the majority of Murphy-branded locations near Walmart Supercenter stores. The company sold approximately 4.8 billion gallons of motor fuel in 2025, employing roughly 16,900 people and earning margins from high-volume fuel and convenience merchandise sales.