Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. At $583.46, A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78%+ merchandise) (78.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart proximity dependence.
Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail motor fuel and convenience stores in 27 states, with 1,649 Murphy-branded stores primarily near Walmart Supercenter stores and 151 QuickChek stores in New Jersey and New York. Revenue comes from high-volume fuel sales and convenience merchandise;... Read more
Sell if holding. At $583.46, A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78%+ merchandise) (78.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart proximity dependence. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierCore-Mark (78%+ merchandise)78%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, over 78% of our merchandise, including most nicotine products and grocery items, was purchased from a single wholesale grocer, Core-Mark.'
- HIGHCustomerWalmart proximity dependence10-K Item 1A: 'Walmart continues to be a key relationship with regard to our Murphy USA network.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02LOWDonald R. Smith Jr. (Interim CFO since October 2025) permanently appointed as SVP, CFO and Treasurer of Murphy USA effective April 3, 2026. Base salary raised to $550,000. Clean handoff from interim role.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $583.46, A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78%+ merchandise) (78.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart proximity dependence. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $544.46. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $578.39 (-1.2% upside). Prior stop was $544.46. Stop-loss: $544.46.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78%+ merchandise) (78.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart proximity dependence; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Murphy USA Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.4 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover MUSA with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $514.
What does Murphy USA Inc. do?Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail motor fuel and convenience stores in 27 states, with 1,649 Murphy-branded stores...
Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail motor fuel and convenience stores in 27 states, with 1,649 Murphy-branded stores primarily near Walmart Supercenter stores and 151 QuickChek stores in New Jersey and New York. Revenue comes from high-volume fuel sales and convenience merchandise; 73% of Murphy stores are on Company-owned property.