Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.61
ULTA · Why this verdict
Why Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 5.7 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 47%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 5.1 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $243,759 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 6.4 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.8 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.1 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.90
Upside
+19.7%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.90 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Value at 6.9, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 3.6, Insider at 5.0, and Growth at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.90 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.