Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $536.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Weak growth.
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operating stores with cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, haircare, and salon services, plus international presence via Space NK in the U.K. Revenue from product sales and salon services; top 10 brand partners account... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $536.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliertop ten brand partners51%10-K Item 1A: 'merchandise supplied by our top ten brand partners accounted for approximately 51% and 54% of our net sales, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $536.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $506.80. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $613.35 (+14.2% upside). Prior stop was $506.80. Stop-loss: $506.80.
Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Weak growth; Negative momentum.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.7 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
34 analysts cover ULTA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $682.
What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operating stores with cosmetics, fragrance, skincare,...
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operating stores with cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, haircare, and salon services, plus international presence via Space NK in the U.K. Revenue from product sales and salon services; top 10 brand partners account for 51% of net sales.