Ulta Beauty trades at a forward P/E of 14.8x with 47% ROE and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but is in a confirmed falling-knife technical pattern below all moving averages with a death cross in place, and its supplier concentration across the top ten brand partners creates a structural vulnerability.
Thesis pillars
- Supplier Concentration Top Ten Brands→Stable
- Analyst Upside With Earnings Beat Base↑Improving
- High Roe Quality In Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $505.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.9%.
Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service salons, selling approximately 30,000 products from roughly 600 brands across cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare. The company earns revenue from direct... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $505.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.9%. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS UBER Expands Delivery Options Via ULTA Deal: A Growth Catalyst? - qz.com — qz.com positive
- NEWS BofA reiterates Ulta Beauty stock rating on competitive response - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS Sisters arrested for allegedly stealing $75K in cosmetics from Ulta Beauty stores - AZ Family — AZ Family negative
- NEWS 2 women arrested for allegedly stealing $75K in cosmetics from Ulta Beauty stores - FOX Carolina News — FOX Carolina News negative
- NEWS Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-08-16T18:42:22Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliertop ten brand partners51%10-K Item 1A: 'merchandise supplied by our top ten brand partners accounted for approximately 51% and 54% of our net sales, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $505.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.9%. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $561.08 (+11.0%), stop $477.21 (−5.9%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $561.08 (+9.9% upside). Target $561.08 (+11.0%), stop $477.21 (−5.9%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $477.21.
Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.9%; Negative momentum.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.2 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
34 analysts cover ULTA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $623.
What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service...
Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service salons, selling approximately 30,000 products from roughly 600 brands across cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare. The company earns revenue from direct retail sales and salon services, with approximately 95% of Ulta U.S. sales generated by the Ulta Beauty Rewards® loyalty program's 46 million-plus members. International operations include 84 Space NK stores in the U.K. and Ireland.