Ulta Beauty trades at a forward P/E of 14.8x with 47% ROE and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but is in a confirmed falling-knife technical pattern below all moving averages with a death cross in place, and its supplier concentration across the top ten brand partners creates a structural vulnerability.
Thesis pillars
- Supplier Concentration Top Ten Brands→Stable
- Analyst Upside With Earnings Beat Base→Stable
- High Roe Quality In Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $453.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Negative momentum.
Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service salons, selling approximately 30,000 products from roughly 600 brands across cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare. The company earns revenue from direct... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $453.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com negative
- NEWS Ulta Beauty Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Ulta Beauty, DC Studios and Warner Bros. Pictures Launch Exclusive Supergirl Partnership, Bridging Beauty & Culture - Bu — Business Wire positive
- NEWS Ghe LLC Purchases Shares of 5,361 Ulta Beauty Inc. $ULTA - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T11:31:44Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliertop ten brand partners51%10-K Item 1A: 'merchandise supplied by our top ten brand partners accounted for approximately 51% and 54% of our net sales, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $453.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $564.52 (+24.5%), stop $430.29 (−5.3%), A.R:R 3.8:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $564.52 (+24.8% upside). Target $564.52 (+24.5%), stop $430.29 (−5.3%), A.R:R 3.8:1. Stop-loss: $430.29.
Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
34 analysts cover ULTA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $627.
What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service...
Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service salons, selling approximately 30,000 products from roughly 600 brands across cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare. The company earns revenue from direct retail sales and salon services, with approximately 95% of Ulta U.S. sales generated by the Ulta Beauty Rewards® loyalty program's 46 million-plus members. International operations include 84 Space NK stores in the U.K. and Ireland.