Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $476.57 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S. with more than 1,500 stores plus 86 Space NK stores in the UK/Ireland, joint ventures in Mexico, and a franchise in the Middle East. Revenue comes from in-store and e-commerce sales of ~30,000 products from ~600... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $476.57 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- What's Going On With Uber Stock Thursday? — benzinga May 7, 2026 neutral
- Uber Collaborates With Ulta Beauty To Add Over 1,500 Ulta Outlets To Uber Eats — benzinga May 7, 2026 positive
- NielsenIQ and Ulta Beauty Form Strategic Collaboration For Data Sharing — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 positive
- Congresswoman Discloses Hundreds Of Thousands In Stock Trades, Here's What She Bought — benzinga Apr 24, 2026 neutral
- Ulta Beauty Unveils AI Shopping Push With Alphabet Partnership — benzinga Apr 22, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliertop ten brand partners51%10-K Item 1A: 'merchandise supplied by our top ten brand partners accounted for approximately 51% and 54% of our net sales, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $476.57 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $462.84. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $613.35 (+27.8% upside). Prior stop was $462.84. Stop-loss: $462.84.
Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.7 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
34 analysts cover ULTA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $682.
What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S. with more than 1,500 stores plus 86 Space NK stores in...
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S. with more than 1,500 stores plus 86 Space NK stores in the UK/Ireland, joint ventures in Mexico, and a franchise in the Middle East. Revenue comes from in-store and e-commerce sales of ~30,000 products from ~600 brands plus salon services; the Ulta Beauty Rewards loyalty program has 46 million members with ~95% of sales from members in fiscal 2025.