Ulta Beauty trades at a forward P/E of 14.8x with 47% ROE and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but is in a confirmed falling-knife technical pattern below all moving averages with a death cross in place, and its supplier concentration across the top ten brand partners creates a structural vulnerability.
Thesis pillars
- Supplier Concentration Top Ten Brands↑Improving
- Analyst Upside With Earnings Beat Base↓Deteriorating
- High Roe Quality In Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 26, 2026· older than 90 days
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $660.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%).
Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service salons, selling approximately 30,000 products from roughly 600 brands across cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare. The company earns revenue from direct... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $660.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ulta Beauty and Whoop Announce Retail Partnership — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Ulta Beauty Inc. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day - MarketWatch — MarketWatch Aug 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS Ulta (ULTA) Q2 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Aug 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ulta Beauty Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors despite daily gains - MarketWatch — MarketWatch Aug 19, 2026 negative
- NEWS Pallas Capital Advisors LLC Acquires New Shares in Ulta Beauty Inc. $ULTA - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Aug 19, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliertop ten brand partners51%10-K Item 1A: 'merchandise supplied by our top ten brand partners accounted for approximately 51% and 54% of our net sales, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $660.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $623.30. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $572.26 reached (−13.4% from $660.70); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $623.30. Stop-loss: $623.30.
Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.1 (forward 20.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
35 analysts rate ULTA, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 25 analysts publish price targets averaging $636.
What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service...
Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service salons, selling approximately 30,000 products from roughly 600 brands across cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare. The company earns revenue from direct retail sales and salon services, with approximately 95% of Ulta U.S. sales generated by the Ulta Beauty Rewards® loyalty program's 46 million-plus members. International operations include 84 Space NK stores in the U.K. and Ireland.