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Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $536.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Weak growth.

Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operating stores with cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, haircare, and salon services, plus international presence via Space NK in the U.K. Revenue from product sales and salon services; top 10 brand partners account... Read more

$536.62+14.2% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#4 of 18 Specialty Retail
Stop $506.80Target $613.35(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$681.50+27.0%24 analysts
$613.35our TP
$536.62price
$681.50mean
$475
$810

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $536.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%)
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.7
P/E (Fwd)16.8
Mkt Cap$23.2B
EV/EBITDA13.6
Profit Mgn9.3%
ROE43.6%
Rev Growth11.8%
Beta0.95
DividendNone
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV43%normal
Max Pain$330-38.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliertop ten brand partners51%
    10-K Item 1A: 'merchandise supplied by our top ten brand partners accounted for approximately 51% and 54% of our net sales, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.9
Revenue Growth
5.4

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $512.91Resistance $578.63

Price Targets

$507
$613
A.Upside+14.3%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-02 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ULTA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $536.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $506.80. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ULTA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $613.35 (+14.2% upside). Prior stop was $506.80. Stop-loss: $506.80.

What are the risks of investing in ULTA?

Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is ULTA overvalued or undervalued?

Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.7 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ULTA?

34 analysts cover ULTA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $682.

What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operating stores with cosmetics, fragrance, skincare,...

Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operating stores with cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, haircare, and salon services, plus international presence via Space NK in the U.K. Revenue from product sales and salon services; top 10 brand partners account for 51% of net sales.

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