MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MNSO stock price target?

Take-profit $20.21 (+39.0% upside). Target $20.21 (+38.9%), stop $14.05 (−3.6%), A.R:R 7.8:1.

Q: What are the risks of investing in MNSO?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum; Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA.

Q: Is MNSO overvalued or undervalued?

MINISO Group Holding Limited trades at a P/E of 14.2 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about MNSO?

22 analysts cover MNSO with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $23.

Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.55, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum.

$14.55+39.0% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#1 of 18 Specialty Retail

Stop $14.05Target $20.21(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 7.8:1

Analyst target$23.23+59.7%14 analysts

$20.21our TP

$14.55price

$23.23mean

$27

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.55, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Attractive valuation

Strong growth profile

Risks

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5

Negative momentum

Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.2

P/E (Fwd)8.2

Mkt Cap$4.5B

EV/EBITDA6.1

Profit Mgn5.6%

ROE11.5%

Rev Growth32.7%

Beta0.25

Dividend4.58%

Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.33bearish

IV43%normal

Max Pain$30+106.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.215%1.38

Quality5.615%0.84

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum1.710%0.17

Sentiment6.510%0.65

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank6.410%0.64

Technical Setup6.65%0.33

Risk Profile6.05%0.30

Catalyst6.75%0.34

Overall (Σ contributions)6.64

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Macd

3.1

Rsi

3.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 7.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

32 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.48Resistance $16.64

Price Targets

$14

$20

A.Upside+38.9%

A.R:R7.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-21 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MNSO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.55, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $20.21 (+38.9%), stop $14.05 (−3.6%), A.R:R 7.8:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MNSO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.21 (+39.0% upside). Target $20.21 (+38.9%), stop $14.05 (−3.6%), A.R:R 7.8:1. Stop-loss: $14.05.

What are the risks of investing in MNSO?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MNSO overvalued or undervalued?

MINISO Group Holding Limited trades at a P/E of 14.2 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MNSO?

22 analysts cover MNSO with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $23.

What does MINISO Group Holding Limited do?MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led...

MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products in Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers products in various categories, including home decor products, small electronics, textiles, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care products, snacks, fragrances and perfumes, and stationeries and gifts under the MINISO brand; and blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, model kits, collectible dolls, Ichiban Kuji, and other popular toys under the TOP TOY brand. It also engages in brand licensing activity; and online sale of lifestyle products. MINISO Group Holding Limited was founded in 2013 and is based in Guangzhou, China.