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MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Earnings in 1 day (2026-05-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $13.80 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5.

MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products in Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers products in various... Read more

$13.73+51.2% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield26.80%
IncomeYield4.72%Payout63.81%
Entry $13.80(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $13.11Target $20.25(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 9.4:1
Analyst target$23.27+69.5%14 analysts
$20.25our TP
$13.73price
$23.27mean
$27

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $13.80 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — MINISO Group Holding Limited

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.8
P/E (Fwd)8.0
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn5.6%
ROE11.5%
Rev Growth32.7%
Beta0.12
Dividend4.72%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$35+154.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dA.R:R 9.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.71Resistance $15.11

Price Targets

$13
$14
$20
A.Upside+47.5%
A.R:R9.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! Momentum score 1.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MNSO stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $13.80 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $20.25 (+47.5%), stop $13.11 (−4.7%), Setup A.R:R 10.0:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MNSO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.25 (+51.2% upside). Target $20.25 (+47.5%), stop $13.11 (−4.7%), Setup A.R:R 10.0:1. Stop-loss: $13.11.

What are the risks of investing in MNSO?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5.

Is MNSO overvalued or undervalued?

MINISO Group Holding Limited trades at a P/E of 13.8 (forward 8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MNSO?

24 analysts cover MNSO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $23.

What does MINISO Group Holding Limited do?MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led...

MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products in Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers products in various categories, including home decor products, small electronics, textiles, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care products, snacks, fragrances and perfumes, and stationeries and gifts under the MINISO brand; and blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, model kits, collectible dolls, Ichiban Kuji, and other popular toys under the TOP TOY brand. It also engages in brand licensing activity; and online sale of lifestyle products. MINISO Group Holding Limited was founded in 2013 and is based in Guangzhou, China.

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