Ubiquiti delivers exceptional profitability with 115% ROE, 30% operating margins, and a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9, and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 23%, but the stock is in a momentum trough with falling volume and is trading below its 200-day moving average, making timing the entry the key challenge.
Thesis pillars
- Concentration Risk Limits Position Size→Stable
- Best In Class Margins And Returns→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak With Large Surprises→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) Stock Analysis
Conditional: concentration high:2>=2 — below strong-conviction threshold. Size accordingly.
Technology · Communication Equipment
Buy now at $537.42. A.R:R 3.3:1 at $537.42 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $702.10 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$165 per share to target. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single or limited suppliers for several components; Concentration risk — Geographic: majority of sales outside the United States.
Ubiquiti develops and sells networking equipment and software platforms for enterprises, service providers, and consumers globally, distributing through more than 100 distributors in over 75 countries. Revenue of $2.6 billion in fiscal 2025 (ended June 30) came from hardware... Read more
Buy now at $537.42. A.R:R 3.3:1 at $537.42 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $702.10 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$165 per share to target. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single or limited suppliers for several components; Concentration risk — Geographic: majority of sales outside the United States. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.03, quality 8.2/10, growth 7.6/10). Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 9/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=technology 6/10). Suitability: speculative.
About Ubiquiti Inc.
About Ubiquiti Inc.
Ubiquiti generated $2.6 billion in revenues in the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, up from $1.9 billion in each of fiscal 2024 and 2023, with a majority of sales made outside the United States across more than 75 countries. The company employed 1,667 full-time equivalent employees as of June 30, 2025, of which 1,187 were in research and development, with R&D expenses of $169.7 million in fiscal 2025. No single customer represented 10% or more of revenue in any of the three fiscal years reported.
Ubiquiti earns revenue from hardware sales across two technology categories: enterprise products (UniFi Cloud Gateways, switches, access points, cameras via UniFi Protect, and door access systems managed through the UniFi OS platform) and service-provider products (airMAX and airFiber fixed wireless and backhaul systems, UFiber GPON, and the Wave 60 GHz platform). The company does not employ a traditional direct sales force, distributing through a network of distributors, value-added resellers, and systems integrators while building brand awareness through its online Ubiquiti Community. In the enterprise WLAN and switching markets, the company competes against Cisco, Fortinet, HPE Aruba Networks, Juniper Networks, and Ruckus; in the backhaul market, against Cambium Networks, Ceragon Networks, and MikroTîkls. A limited number of distributors represent a significant portion of sales; those distributors do not make long-term purchase commitments and do not consistently provide sell-through data, creating demand-visibility gaps. Contract manufacturers are primarily located in Vietnam and China, and U.S. tariffs on imports from both countries have increased product costs, with the 10-K warning that historical gross margins may not be indicative of future periods.
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Supply chain dependency poses a structural risk: the company and its contract manufacturers depend on a single or limited number of suppliers for several components, and Ubiquiti does not stockpile sufficient inventory to cover the time needed to re-engineer products around alternative sources. From 2020 to 2023, supply constraints forced higher component costs, expanded inventory builds, and increased vendor deposits. An inability to source a suitable second supply of chipsets on acceptable terms — an outcome the 10-K states cannot be assured — could reduce the company's ability to manufacture and supply products, which would adversely affect revenues.
See also: Technology · Communication Equipment
From Ubiquiti Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Ubiquiti Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS UI DCF Analysis: Intrinsic Value $432 vs Price $964 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Ubiquiti Inc (UI) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS UI DCF Analysis: Intrinsic Value $432 vs Price $1027 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS 9-Day Sell-Off Sends Ubiquiti Stock Down 43% - Trefis — Trefis negative
- NEWS UBIQUITI INC. INVESTOR ALERT: Haeggquist & Eck, LLP Investigates Ubiquiti Inc.’s Directors and Officers for Breach of Fi — Business Wire negative
Generated 2026-07-07T12:51:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliersingle or limited suppliers for several components10-K Item 1: 'we and our contract manufacturers currently depend on a single or limited number of suppliers for several components for our products'
- HIGHGeographicmajority of sales outside the United States10-K Item 1: 'A majority of our sales are made outside the United States'
- MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of distributors10-K Item 1A: 'a limited number of these distributors represent a significant portion of our sales'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Buy now at $537.42. A.R:R 3.3:1 at $537.42 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $702.10 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$165 per share to target. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single or limited suppliers for several components; Concentration risk — Geographic: majority of sales outside the United States. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.03, quality 8.2/10, growth 7.6/10). Target $702.10 (+30.6%), stop $502.01 (−7.1%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $702.10 (+30.6% upside). Target $702.10 (+30.6%), stop $502.01 (−7.1%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Stop-loss: $502.01.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single or limited suppliers for several components; Concentration risk — Geographic: majority of sales outside the United States; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5.
Ubiquiti Inc. trades at a P/E of 33.8 (forward 30.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Strong Buy.
11 analysts cover UI with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $826.
What does Ubiquiti Inc. do?Ubiquiti develops and sells networking equipment and software platforms for enterprises, service providers, and...
Ubiquiti develops and sells networking equipment and software platforms for enterprises, service providers, and consumers globally, distributing through more than 100 distributors in over 75 countries. Revenue of $2.6 billion in fiscal 2025 (ended June 30) came from hardware sales of UniFi enterprise products and airMAX/airFiber service-provider platforms, with no single customer exceeding 10% of revenue. Contract manufacturing is concentrated in Vietnam and China.