Ninety percent year-over-year revenue growth, four consecutive earnings beats, and best-in-class margins within the peer group establish a compelling growth profile — but free cash flow converts at only 21 cents per dollar of net income, the shares trade at a forward P/E above 52 times, and dependence on sole-source suppliers introduces supply chain fragility that could disrupt execution.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Revenue Growth→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Outperformance→Stable
- Best In Class Margins→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Aug 17, 2026· older than 90 days
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Stock Analysis
Technology · Communication Equipment
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $626.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside the United States (79.2%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers.
Lumentum makes optical and photonic products, selling laser chips, transceivers, optical modules and circuit switches to cloud, AI/ML, telecom and network equipment customers, plus industrial lasers and 3D-sensing laser sources. It reports one segment and splits revenue into... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $626.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside the United States (79.2%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.
About Lumentum Holdings Inc.
About Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Two end customers accounted for 26.6% and 15.0% of Lumentum's net revenue in fiscal 2026, up sharply for the larger of the two from 15.4% a year earlier. Customers outside the United States represented 79.2% of net revenue, and the company employed approximately 13,757 people at June 27, 2026, including about 11,916 in manufacturing and 1,085 in research and development. The San Jose, California company operates as a single reportable segment.
Lumentum disaggregates revenue into Components, such as semiconductor laser chips, laser sub-assemblies and wavelength management systems, and Systems, such as optical modules, optical circuit switches and industrial lasers. Its customers include cloud and network service providers, AI infrastructure providers and network equipment manufacturers, and the company also sells fiber and ultrafast lasers for manufacturing and VCSEL light sources for 3D sensing. Since fiscal 2025, demand from AI and cloud customers has outpaced supply, requiring supply allocation decisions while the company adds capacity internally and with contract manufacturers in Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines. Significant company-owned facilities are in the United States, Thailand, China, the United Kingdom, Slovenia and Japan, and acquisitions include Oclaro in 2018, NeoPhotonics in 2022, Cloud Light in 2023 and a manufacturing site in Greensboro, North Carolina in 2026. The company owns approximately 1,000 U.S. patents.
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Customer concentration and export controls interact in the risk profile. Huawei was historically the company's largest networking customer in China, but shipments stopped in early calendar 2024 after Commerce Department rules restricted sales, and the company received subpoenas from BIS and the Department of Justice in August 2024 that it is cooperating with. The filing says that demand may never return even if restrictions ease. With Customer A now above one quarter of revenue, a single order delay may weigh on results, and sole-source suppliers for certain materials, equipment and components, plus Chinese export controls on rare earth metals, could constrain output of the products those customers want.
See also: Technology · Communication Equipment
From Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Tesla Bulls Could Get Burned? Gary Black Sees Trouble With SpaceX All-Stock Merger: Warns 24% Premium 'Can Quickly Go Ne — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Needham Adjusts Price Target for Lumentum Holdings Inc. — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Why Lumentum Stock Fell 14.9% Today - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Nov 2, 2026 negative
- NEWS Marvell’s Potential Lumentum Deal Sends LITE Surging, MRVL Sliding After-Hours - Stocktwits — Stocktwits Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Why is Lumentum stock surging today? - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 28, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerCustomer A27%10-K Item 1: 'Customer A| 26.6 | %| | 15.4 | %| | 18.9 | %'
- LOWCustomerCustomer B15%10-K Item 1: 'Customer B| 15.0 | %| | 16.0 | %| | 11.4 | %'
- HIGHGeographiccustomers outside the United States79%10-K Item 1: 'customers outside the United States based on the geographic region and country where our product is initially shipped to represented 79.2%, 81.0% and 73.8% of net revenue'
- HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'some of our suppliers are our sole sources for certain materials, equipment and components'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-07-30Item 5.02LOWEVP Global Reliability & Quality Vincent Retort announced planned retirement effective October 2026 and will consult for two years while equity continues to vest. No successor named; no disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $626.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside the United States (79.2%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $582.88. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $999.06 (+59.4% upside). Prior stop was $582.88. Stop-loss: $582.88.
Concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside the United States (79.2%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
36 analysts rate LITE, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 26 analysts publish price targets averaging $1110.
What does Lumentum Holdings Inc. do?Lumentum makes optical and photonic products, selling laser chips, transceivers, optical modules and circuit switches...
Lumentum makes optical and photonic products, selling laser chips, transceivers, optical modules and circuit switches to cloud, AI/ML, telecom and network equipment customers, plus industrial lasers and 3D-sensing laser sources. It reports one segment and splits revenue into Components and Systems, with 79.2% of fiscal 2026 net revenue shipped outside the United States. Two end customers supplied 26.6% and 15.0% of net revenue, and demand from AI and cloud buyers currently outpaces supply.