Skip to main content

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Sell if holding. At $881.00, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole or limited source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Lumentum Holdings is a provider of optical and photonic products operating in two segments: Cloud & Networking (optical transceivers, components, and modules for cloud/AI/telecom) and Industrial Tech (lasers for manufacturing, 3D sensing, and consumer applications). Revenue is... Read more

$881.00+12.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 21 Communication Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.12%
Stop $823.03Target $994.22(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$1104.68+25.4%24 analysts
$994.22our TP
$881.00price
$1104.68mean
$600
$1400

Sell if holding. At $881.00, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole or limited source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Lumentum Holdings Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole or limited source suppliers
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)169.4
P/E (Fwd)53.9
Mkt Cap$75.5B
EV/EBITDA137.1
Profit Mgn17.7%
ROE22.8%
Rev Growth90.1%
Beta1.53
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.16bearish
IV101%elevated
Max Pain$1335+51.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersole or limited source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'some of our suppliers are our sole sources for certain materials, equipment and components. We depend on the timely and continued supply and quality of the materials, packages and components that our suppliers supply to us.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
4.3
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
2.1
Analyst Target
6.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 53.9xPEG: 0.25
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $780.48Resistance $1085.68

Price Targets

$823
$994
A.Upside+12.9%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LITE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $881.00, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole or limited source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $823.03. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LITE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $994.22 (+12.3% upside). Prior stop was $823.03. Stop-loss: $823.03.

What are the risks of investing in LITE?

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole or limited source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is LITE overvalued or undervalued?

Lumentum Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 169.4 (forward 53.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LITE?

30 analysts cover LITE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $1105.

What does Lumentum Holdings Inc. do?Lumentum Holdings is a provider of optical and photonic products operating in two segments: Cloud & Networking (optical...

Lumentum Holdings is a provider of optical and photonic products operating in two segments: Cloud & Networking (optical transceivers, components, and modules for cloud/AI/telecom) and Industrial Tech (lasers for manufacturing, 3D sensing, and consumer applications). Revenue is generated from cloud data center operators, AI/ML infrastructure providers, network equipment manufacturers, and industrial OEMs; manufacturing spans six countries.

Related stocks: CSCO (Cisco Systems, Inc.) · ZBRA (Zebra Technologies Corporation) · VIAV (Viavi Solutions Inc.) · UI (Ubiquiti Inc.) · CIEN (Ciena Corporation)