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Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Wait for pullback to $554.53. At $584.86 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $554.53 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: small number of suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Ubiquiti develops and sells networking products for enterprises, service providers, and consumers globally through 100+ distributors in over 75 countries, with revenues of $2.6B in fiscal 2025. Products include WLAN, video surveillance, routing, and switching under the UniFi and... Read more

$584.86+26.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#8 of 21 Communication Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.55%
IncomeYield0.55%(5y avg 0.95%)Payout19.29%sustainable
Entry $554.53(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $446.59Target $702.10(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.3:1Setup A.R:R 3.7:1
Analyst target$826.00+41.2%2 analysts
$702.10our TP
$584.86price
$826.00mean
$980

Wait for pullback to $554.53. At $584.86 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $554.53 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: small number of suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.15, quality 8.2/10, growth 7.6/10). Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 93d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val3.7Qual8.2Grw7.6Mom1.2Sent5.8Ins5.0Peer4.6Tech6.0Risk3.75.4OVERALL

Recent Developments — Ubiquiti Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Contrarian signal: extreme negativity (-1.00) on quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: small number of suppliers
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.6
P/E (Fwd)33.9
Mkt Cap$35.3B
EV/EBITDA31.1
Profit Mgn30.4%
ROE115.0%
Rev Growth18.7%
Beta1.47
Dividend0.55%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersmall number of suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'The majority of our product revenues are dependent upon the sale of products that incorporate components from a small number of suppliers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 7, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+12.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
2.5
Forward Pe
3.2
Pe
3.3
Peg Ratio
6.4
Forward P/E: 33.9xPEG: 1.15
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 93d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
7 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $575.14Resistance $1061.66

Price Targets

$447
$555
$702
A.Upside+20.0%
A.R:R1.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-21 (93d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $554.53. At $584.86 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $554.53 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: small number of suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.15, quality 8.2/10, growth 7.6/10). Target $702.10 (+20.0%), stop $446.59 (−31.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.7:1. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the UI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $702.10 (+26.1% upside). Target $702.10 (+20.0%), stop $446.59 (−31.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.7:1. Stop-loss: $446.59.

What are the risks of investing in UI?

Concentration risk — Supplier: small number of suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5.

Is UI overvalued or undervalued?

Ubiquiti Inc. trades at a P/E of 37.6 (forward 33.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about UI?

11 analysts cover UI with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $826.

What does Ubiquiti Inc. do?Ubiquiti develops and sells networking products for enterprises, service providers, and consumers globally through 100+...

Ubiquiti develops and sells networking products for enterprises, service providers, and consumers globally through 100+ distributors in over 75 countries, with revenues of $2.6B in fiscal 2025. Products include WLAN, video surveillance, routing, and switching under the UniFi and airMAX platforms; no single customer represented 10%+ of revenue. Contract manufacturing is primarily in Vietnam and China, with key components sourced from a limited number of suppliers.

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