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Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Sell if holding. At $49.77, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: SICPA; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

Viavi Solutions offers network test, monitoring, and assurance solutions (NSE segment) for telecom, data centers, and government customers, plus optical security pigments and coatings (OSP segment) for banknote anti-counterfeiting in 100+ countries. Revenue comes from test... Read more

$49.77+12.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#7 of 21 Communication Equipment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.43%
Stop $46.27Target $56.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$64.43+29.5%7 analysts
$56.05our TP
$49.77price
$64.43mean
$70

Sell if holding. At $49.77, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: SICPA; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Viavi Solutions Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: SICPA
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)40.3
Mkt Cap$12.0B
EV/EBITDA58.0
Profit Mgn-4.0%
ROE-7.0%
Rev Growth42.8%
Beta1.23
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerSICPA
    10-K Item 1: 'We have a strategic alliance with SICPA to market and sell our OVP and OVMP product lines for banknote anti-counterfeiting applications worldwide. A material reduction in sales, or loss of the relationship with SICPA, may harm our business'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.8
Value Rank
2.2
Growth Rank
7.9
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.18Resistance $60.43

Price Targets

$46
$56
A.Upside+12.6%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VIAV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $49.77, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: SICPA; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $46.27. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the VIAV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $56.05 (+12.7% upside). Prior stop was $46.27. Stop-loss: $46.27.

What are the risks of investing in VIAV?

Concentration risk — Customer: SICPA; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is VIAV overvalued or undervalued?

Viavi Solutions Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 40.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VIAV?

15 analysts cover VIAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $64.

What does Viavi Solutions Inc. do?Viavi Solutions offers network test, monitoring, and assurance solutions (NSE segment) for telecom, data centers, and...

Viavi Solutions offers network test, monitoring, and assurance solutions (NSE segment) for telecom, data centers, and government customers, plus optical security pigments and coatings (OSP segment) for banknote anti-counterfeiting in 100+ countries. Revenue comes from test instruments, service contracts, and anti-counterfeiting pigments sold to telecom operators, NEMs, and banknote issuers; OSP banknote products are exclusively distributed through SICPA worldwide.

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