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PCTYPaylocity Holding CorporationSell5.8·$154.43-0.11%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Paylocity combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an attractive forward valuation of 12.3x and a wide economic moat, but near-term momentum remains deeply negative with the stock trading below its 200-day moving average on falling volume, warranting patience before adding exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Moat Fcf QualityStable
  • Earnings Beat QualityStable
  • Valuation Analyst UpsideStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $154.43 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Paylocity Holding Corporation is a cloud-based provider of human capital management (HCM), payroll, and spend management software, offering a single-platform suite covering payroll, HR, time and labor, talent, and benefits to approximately 41,650 U.S. clients as of June 30,... Read more

$154.43+0.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#57 of 122 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.20%
Stop $145.37Target $154.80(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$172.00+11.4%19 analysts
$154.80our TP
$154.43price
$172.00mean
$128
$250

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $154.43 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Paylocity Holding Corporation

About Paylocity Holding Corporation

Paylocity provided cloud-based HCM, payroll, and spend management software to approximately 41,650 U.S. clients as of June 30, 2025, averaging more than 150 employees each, across product categories spanning Payroll, Human Resources, Time & Labor, Talent, Benefits, Employee Experiences, and Paylocity for Finance. Revenue grew to $1,595.2 million in fiscal 2025 from $1,174.6 million in fiscal 2023, a 19% and 14% year-over-year increase in fiscal 2024 and 2025 respectively, with annual revenue retention above 92% in each of the last three fiscal years and no single client exceeding 1% of revenue.

Paylocity earns revenue based on the solutions a client purchases, its number of employees, and the type and timing of services delivered, sold primarily through a direct sales force supplemented by a referral network of 401(k) advisors, benefits administrators, insurance brokers, third-party administrators, HR consultants, and accountants that generated more than 25% of new client revenue in fiscal 2025. The platform integrates with hundreds of third-party systems through its Integration Marketplace, including 401(k), benefits, and insurance provider systems, and its Global Payroll offering extends U.S. clients' payroll management to employees in over 100 countries. Paylocity hosts its solutions using multiple cloud hosting and third-party data center providers, including named facilities in Franklin Park, Illinois and Kenosha, Wisconsin, the latter serving as backup and disaster recovery. Clients typically implement the platform within one to eight weeks, and the company estimates its realized target addressable market at approximately $22.0 billion, based on roughly 1.3 million U.S. businesses with 10 to 5,000 employees.

Show full overview

Paylocity's customer base is genuinely diversified — no client has exceeded 1% of revenue in any of the past three fiscal years — but its physical infrastructure is not: the 10-K names just two data center locations, Franklin Park, Illinois and Kenosha, Wisconsin, with the latter serving only as backup and disaster recovery rather than as an independent production site. The company acknowledges that problems at its data center locations, including hardware or supply chain disruptions, or a data center provider's inability to keep up with growing capacity needs, could adversely affect the availability of its solutions for all 41,650 clients simultaneously — a single-region infrastructure concentration that sits in sharp contrast to Paylocity's otherwise well-diversified revenue base.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Paylocity Holding Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.7
P/E (Fwd)16.0
Mkt Cap$8.6B
EV/EBITDA18.8
Profit Mgn15.2%
ROE22.0%
Rev Growth11.0%
Beta0.43
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierthird-party data center providers (Franklin Park, IL and Kenosha, WI)
    10-K Item 1A: 'We use multiple cloud hosting and third-party data center providers to host our solutions, including data centers in Franklin Park, Illinois and Kenosha, Wisconsin'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.3
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $140.02Resistance $161.93

Price Targets

$145
$155
A.Upside+0.2%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.2% upside)
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PCTY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $154.43 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $145.37. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PCTY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $154.80 (+0.2% upside). Prior stop was $145.37. Stop-loss: $145.37.

What are the risks of investing in PCTY?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Is PCTY overvalued or undervalued?

Paylocity Holding Corporation trades at a P/E of 31.7 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PCTY?

27 analysts cover PCTY with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $172.

What does Paylocity Holding Corporation do?Paylocity Holding Corporation is a cloud-based provider of human capital management (HCM), payroll, and spend...

Paylocity Holding Corporation is a cloud-based provider of human capital management (HCM), payroll, and spend management software, offering a single-platform suite covering payroll, HR, time and labor, talent, and benefits to approximately 41,650 U.S. clients as of June 30, 2025, averaging over 150 employees each. Revenue grew to $1,595.2 million in fiscal 2025 from $1,174.6 million in fiscal 2023, with annual revenue retention above 92% each year and no single client exceeding 1% of revenue.

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