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PCTYPaylocity Holding CorporationHold6.1·$143.35
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Paylocity combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an attractive forward valuation of 12.3x and a wide economic moat, but near-term momentum remains deeply negative with the stock trading below its 200-day moving average on falling volume, warranting patience before adding exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Moat Fcf Quality→Stable
  • Earnings Beat Quality→Stable
  • Valuation Analyst Upside→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $143.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.0%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Paylocity is a cloud-based provider of human capital management, payroll, and spend management software serving approximately 41,650 U.S. clients (averaging over 150 employees each) as of June 30, 2025. Revenue grew from $1,174.6 million in fiscal 2023 to $1,595.2 million in... Read more

$143.35+8.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#32 of 118 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.72%
Stop $136.18Target $154.80(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$172.00+20.0%19 analysts
$154.80our TP
$143.35price
$172.00mean
$128
$250

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $143.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.0%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Paylocity Holding Corporation

About Paylocity Holding Corporation

Paylocity served approximately 41,650 clients across the U.S. as of June 30, 2025, averaging more than 150 employees each, with total revenue growing from $1,174.6 million in fiscal 2023 to $1,595.2 million in fiscal 2025 — a 14% year-over-year increase. Annual revenue retention exceeded 92% in each of the past three fiscal years, and more than 25% of new client revenue in fiscal 2025 came through referrals from 401(k) advisors, benefits administrators, insurance brokers, and accountants.

Paylocity earns revenue based on the solutions a client purchases, its number of employees, and the type and timing of services delivered, spanning payroll and tax services, HR, time and labor, talent (recruiting, onboarding, learning, performance, compensation), benefits administration, employee-experience tools (Community, Video, Recognition & Rewards), and a newer Paylocity for Finance suite (headcount planning, expense management, accounts-payable automation, corporate cards). On average, clients purchase 50% or more of Paylocity's suite of solutions, and the company estimates a $22.0 billion realized addressable market against roughly 1.3 million U.S. businesses with 10 to 5,000 employees. Sales run through a direct sales force supplemented by a referral network of 401(k) advisors, benefits administrators, insurance brokers, third-party administrators, HR consultants, and accountants; implementation typically takes one to eight weeks depending on client size and complexity, and the company names Automatic Data Processing, Dayforce, Paychex, Paycom, and Ultimate Kronos Group as primary competitors.

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Paylocity's payroll operations depend on a chain of external counterparties it does not control: it relies on third-party couriers such as UPS to ship printed checks, on 'various major U.S. banks' to execute ACH and wire transfers with no obligation to renew on favorable terms, and on its referral network — which sourced more than 25% of new client revenue in fiscal 2025 — to keep client-acquisition costs down. The 10-K notes that because it debits client accounts before disbursing funds, a client's insufficient funds or a bank's failure to process a transfer could force Paylocity to advance short-term liquidity to cover the shortfall itself.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Paylocity Holding Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.0%
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.1
P/E (Fwd)14.8
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA17.5
Profit Mgn15.2%
ROE22.0%
Rev Growth11.0%
Beta0.45
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV50%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMcounterpartyreferral network
    10-K Item 1: 'in fiscal 2025, more than 25% of our new client revenue originated by referrals from participants in our referral network.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierUnited Parcel Service (UPS)
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on third-party couriers such as the United Parcel Service, or UPS, to ship printed checks to our clients, and any disruptions in their operations that impact their ability to successfully perform their tasks may negatively impact our business.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
4.2
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.31%=MODERATENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $140.39Resistance $161.93

Price Targets

$136
$155
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PCTY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $143.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.0%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $154.80 (+8.0%), stop $136.18 (−5.3%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PCTY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $154.80 (+8.0% upside). Target $154.80 (+8.0%), stop $136.18 (−5.3%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $136.18.

What are the risks of investing in PCTY?

Thin upside margin: 8.0%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Is PCTY overvalued or undervalued?

Paylocity Holding Corporation trades at a P/E of 29.1 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PCTY?

27 analysts cover PCTY with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $172.

What does Paylocity Holding Corporation do?Paylocity is a cloud-based provider of human capital management, payroll, and spend management software serving...

Paylocity is a cloud-based provider of human capital management, payroll, and spend management software serving approximately 41,650 U.S. clients (averaging over 150 employees each) as of June 30, 2025. Revenue grew from $1,174.6 million in fiscal 2023 to $1,595.2 million in fiscal 2025, with annual revenue retention above 92% each year and more than 25% of new client revenue in fiscal 2025 sourced through its referral network.

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