Paycom Software posts best-in-class margins with 22% net margin and 37% return on equity — ranking superior to peers on both metrics — yet trades near its analyst target with only 1.2% upside remaining and a death cross that makes new entry unattractive at this level.
Thesis pillars
- Dividend Sustainability Signal→Stable
- Best In Class Margins Roe↓Deteriorating
- Target Exhaustion Watch↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Application
Wait for pullback to $126.69. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $147.39. Engine's entry $126.69 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.
Paycom Software provides a cloud-based, single-database HCM SaaS solution covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR management, and time and labor applications for U.S. businesses. The company serves approximately 39,200 clients directly through a U.S. sales force, with 91%... Read more
Wait for pullback to $126.69. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $147.39. Engine's entry $126.69 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/9 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Paycom Software, Inc.
About Paycom Software, Inc.
Paycom Software serves approximately 39,200 clients through a single-database HCM SaaS platform spanning payroll, talent acquisition, talent management, HR management, and time and labor management — sold exclusively through a direct sales force with offices in 41 of the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas. The company reported 91% annual revenue retention in 2025 versus 90% in 2024 and maintains fully redundant data centers in Oklahoma, Texas, and Arizona.
Paycom earns revenue through per-employee pricing that scales with client headcount and the number of applications deployed; the historical majority of revenues has come from payroll applications. The company sells exclusively through an internally trained direct sales force — no distributors or resellers — and competes against Automatic Data Processing, Dayforce, Paychex, Paylocity, Workday, Oracle, and others in a fragmented market where several competitors hold larger distribution agreements and an established global presence. Pricing pressure from lower-cost alternatives is an ongoing factor; the 10-K identifies the proliferation of white-label and embedded payroll offerings as an emerging competitive threat. Paycom's research and development team is concentrated in Oklahoma and Texas, where management believes technology talent costs are lower than in coastal markets.
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Paycom's office-centric operational model — requiring employees to work in person rather than under remote or hybrid arrangements — may constrain talent acquisition as competitors offer more flexible work policies. Combined with immigration law changes the 10-K identifies as amplifying competition for software developers and IT personnel, this creates a structural hiring challenge at a time when the company must continuously develop new applications to maintain its per-employee revenue expansion thesis. The company explicitly names Automatic Data Processing, Paychex, and Workday as peers competing for the same talent pool, none of whom maintain a similarly office-centric posture.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Paycom Software, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — Paycom Software, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Paycom Software, Inc. $PAYC Position Boosted by Vest Financial LLC - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Paycom Software (PAYC) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Paycom Software Inc (PAYC) Shares Fall 3.7% -- What GF Score of 81 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Paycom Software (PAYC) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS PAYC Maintained by Barclays -- Price Target Raised to $154 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-07-27T13:52:55Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductpayroll applications10-K Item 1: 'We have historically generated the majority of our revenues from our payroll applications.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOWDirector Archana Vemulapalli resigned from the Board effective March 31, 2026 to pursue other professional opportunities. No disagreement with company operations or policies cited. Board reduced from 7 to 6 directors; no successor named.SEC filing →
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $126.69. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $147.39. Engine's entry $126.69 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $150.14 (+1.9%), stop $113.55 (−29.8%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $150.14 (-6.2% upside). Target $150.14 (+1.9%), stop $113.55 (−29.8%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $113.55.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Paycom Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.8 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
27 analysts cover PAYC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $152.
What does Paycom Software, Inc. do?Paycom Software provides a cloud-based, single-database HCM SaaS solution covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR...
Paycom Software provides a cloud-based, single-database HCM SaaS solution covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR management, and time and labor applications for U.S. businesses. The company serves approximately 39,200 clients directly through a U.S. sales force, with 91% annual revenue retention in 2025.