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PAYCPaycom Software, Inc.Sell5.6·$135.70-1.40%
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Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $135.70 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Paycom provides a comprehensive cloud-based HCM SaaS platform covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR management, and time and labor for US businesses. It sells directly through a captive sales force to ~39,200 clients and earns subscription revenue based on employee headcount... Read more

$135.70+0.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#57 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.59%
IncomeYield1.09%Payout17.36%sustainable
Stop $126.67Target $136.29(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$151.44+11.6%16 analysts
$136.29our TP
$135.70price
$151.44mean
$120
$195

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $135.70 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.9
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$6.4B
EV/EBITDA10.5
Profit Mgn22.4%
ROE37.1%
Rev Growth7.8%
Beta0.79
Dividend1.09%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV64%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
    Director Archana Vemulapalli resigned from the Board effective March 31, 2026, to pursue other professional opportunities. No disagreement with the Company. Board size reduced from 7 to 6 directors.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Shane Hadlock appointed President and Chief Client Officer on February 18, 2026; Chad Richison remains CEO. Randy Peck (COO) will report to Hadlock. Hadlock's base salary increased to $700,000. Clean succession from existing leadership.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $130.59Resistance $151.38

Price Targets

$127
$136
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.4% upside)
! momentum at 2.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $135.70 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $126.67. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAYC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.29 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $126.67. Stop-loss: $126.67.

What are the risks of investing in PAYC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Is PAYC overvalued or undervalued?

Paycom Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAYC?

27 analysts cover PAYC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $151.

What does Paycom Software, Inc. do?Paycom provides a comprehensive cloud-based HCM SaaS platform covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR management, and...

Paycom provides a comprehensive cloud-based HCM SaaS platform covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR management, and time and labor for US businesses. It sells directly through a captive sales force to ~39,200 clients and earns subscription revenue based on employee headcount and applications used, with a 91% annual revenue retention rate in 2025.

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