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Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $141.17 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Paycom provides a comprehensive cloud-based HCM SaaS platform covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR management, and time and labor for US businesses. It sells directly through a captive sales force to ~39,200 clients and earns subscription revenue based on employee headcount... Read more

$141.17+0.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#39 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.54%
IncomeYield1.08%Payout17.36%sustainable
Stop $131.29Target $142.25(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$150.56+6.7%16 analysts
$142.25our TP
$141.17price
$150.56mean
$120
$195

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $141.17 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Paycom Software, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.1
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn22.4%
ROE37.1%
Rev Growth7.8%
Beta0.78
Dividend1.08%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.98neutral
IV51%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
    Director Archana Vemulapalli resigned from the Board effective March 31, 2026, to pursue other professional opportunities. No disagreement with the Company. Board size reduced from 7 to 6 directors.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Shane Hadlock appointed President and Chief Client Officer on February 18, 2026; Chad Richison remains CEO. Randy Peck (COO) will report to Hadlock. Hadlock's base salary increased to $700,000. Clean succession from existing leadership.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.6
Bollinger
1.0
Support Resistance
1.7
Gap
5.0
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $121.28Resistance $145.15

Price Targets

$131
$142
A.Upside+0.8%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $141.17 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $131.29. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAYC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $142.25 (+0.8% upside). Prior stop was $131.29. Stop-loss: $131.29.

What are the risks of investing in PAYC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is PAYC overvalued or undervalued?

Paycom Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.1 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAYC?

28 analysts cover PAYC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $151.

What does Paycom Software, Inc. do?Paycom provides a comprehensive cloud-based HCM SaaS platform covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR management, and...

Paycom provides a comprehensive cloud-based HCM SaaS platform covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR management, and time and labor for US businesses. It sells directly through a captive sales force to ~39,200 clients and earns subscription revenue based on employee headcount and applications used, with a 91% annual revenue retention rate in 2025.

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