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Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $126.72, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.8%.

Paycom is a cloud-based HCM SaaS provider offering an integrated platform covering payroll, talent management, HR, and time/labor management, serving approximately 39,200 U.S. clients as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is subscription-based with a 91% annual retention rate in... Read more

$126.72+7.8% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#45 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $117.65Target $136.38(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$151.53+19.6%17 analysts
$136.38our TP
$126.72price
$151.53mean
$240

Sell if holding. At $126.72, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.8%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.8
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$6.9B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn22.1%
ROE27.4%
Rev Growth10.2%
Beta0.80
Dividend1.17%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral
IV86%elevated
Max Pain$320+152.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
    Archana Vemulapalli resigned from Paycom's Board of Directors effective March 31, 2026, to pursue other professional opportunities. Board size reduced from seven to six. No disagreement with the Company on any matter.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Shane Hadlock appointed President and Chief Client Officer (sole principal operating officer) effective February 18, 2026; annual base salary $700,000. Chad Richison continues as CEO. Randy Peck (COO) reports to Hadlock.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-26Item 5.02LOW
    Jeff York appointed Chief Sales Officer effective January 23, 2026, returning to the role he held 2007–2021. Amy Walker transitioned to a 12-month consulting role on January 20, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
3.7
Support Resistance
4.0
Gap
6.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.4
Revenue Growth
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $110.49Resistance $136.97

Price Targets

$118
$136
A.Upside+7.6%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $126.72, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.8%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Prior stop was $117.65. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAYC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.38 (+7.8% upside). Prior stop was $117.65. Stop-loss: $117.65.

What are the risks of investing in PAYC?

Thin upside margin: 7.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is PAYC overvalued or undervalued?

Paycom Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAYC?

28 analysts cover PAYC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $152.

What does Paycom Software, Inc. do?Paycom is a cloud-based HCM SaaS provider offering an integrated platform covering payroll, talent management, HR, and...

Paycom is a cloud-based HCM SaaS provider offering an integrated platform covering payroll, talent management, HR, and time/labor management, serving approximately 39,200 U.S. clients as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is subscription-based with a 91% annual retention rate in 2025; historically the majority came from payroll applications. Products are sold directly through internally trained sales representatives.

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