Blue Owl Capital carries a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and 425% free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income, but a confirmed death-cross technical pattern, 24% short interest, and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 4.70 signal significant near-term downside risk from professional bearish positioning.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
- Permanent Capital Concentration→Stable
- Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Financial Services · Asset Management
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Elevated risk factors; Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%).
Blue Owl Capital manages $307.4 billion in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital platforms, deploying private capital for institutional and individual investors globally. Revenue comes primarily from management fees, with approximately 85% earned from... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Elevated risk factors; Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Blue Owl Capital Inc.
About Blue Owl Capital Inc.
Blue Owl Capital reported $307.4 billion in AUM at December 31, 2025, divided across Credit ($157.8 billion), Real Assets ($80.6 billion), and GP Strategic Capital ($69.1 billion) platforms, with $187.7 billion in fee-paying AUM generating the management fee base. The company employs approximately 1,365 people globally and had approximately $28.4 billion in AUM not yet paying fees at year-end 2025, representing potential annualized management fees exceeding $326.3 million once fully deployed.
Blue Owl earns revenue primarily through management fees charged on FPAUM, with approximately 85% of management fees derived from Permanent Capital vehicles — structures with indefinite fund terms and long lock-up periods that limit ordinary redemptions and provide a more stable income base than conventional closed-end funds. The Credit platform generates fees mainly from direct lending, targeting upper-middle-market companies through BDCs, long-dated private funds, and managed accounts; Direct Lending alone accounts for $115.0 billion of the Credit platform's $157.8 billion AUM. Real Assets ($80.6 billion AUM) spans net lease ($45.9 billion), real estate credit ($17.5 billion), and digital infrastructure ($17.1 billion) strategies. GP Strategic Capital ($69.1 billion AUM) earns fees from minority equity stakes in and debt financing to large multi-product private equity and private credit firms.
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Investment advisory agreements with Blue Owl's Business Development Companies — regulated under the Investment Company Act — must renew annually following approval by each BDC's board, including a separate vote of a majority of independent directors, and any BDC may terminate its agreement without penalty on 60 days' written notice. Blue Owl has disclosed it may waive or defer fees and has entered into expense support arrangements with certain BDCs to support their target dividend payments, which may reduce net realized management fee income below contractual rates. These governance constraints mean that while Permanent Capital vehicles provide fee stability at the portfolio level, fee income from the regulated subset is subject to annual counterparty re-approval.
See also: Financial Services · Asset Management
From Blue Owl Capital Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Blue Owl Capital Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Blue Owl stock closes at record low as private credit investors head for exits - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS Blue Owl Shares Near ‘Doomsday’ Levels See Earnings as Next Risk - Bloomberg — Bloomberg negative
- NEWS Blue Owl Shares Near ‘Doomsday’ Levels See Earnings as Next Risk - Bloomberg.com — Bloomberg.com negative
- NEWS Bear of the Day: Blue Owl Capital (OWL) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS OWL Stock Slides As Girard Sharp Probes Managed Affiliates - StocksToTrade — StocksToTrade negative
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductPermanent Capital vehicles85%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 85% of our management fees were earned from Permanent Capital vehicles'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Elevated risk factors; Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $8.41. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $11.52 (+27.4% upside). Prior stop was $8.41. Stop-loss: $8.41.
Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%); Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Blue Owl Capital Inc. trades at a P/E of 75.3 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover OWL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $13.
What does Blue Owl Capital Inc. do?Blue Owl Capital manages $307.4 billion in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital platforms,...
Blue Owl Capital manages $307.4 billion in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital platforms, deploying private capital for institutional and individual investors globally. Revenue comes primarily from management fees, with approximately 85% earned from Permanent Capital vehicles that have indefinite terms and limited ordinary redemption requirements.