Blue Owl Capital carries a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and 425% free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income, but a confirmed death-cross technical pattern, 24% short interest, and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 4.70 signal significant near-term downside risk from professional bearish positioning.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
- Permanent Capital Concentration↑Improving
- Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026· older than 90 days
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Asset Management
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.2%.
Blue Owl Capital manages $307.4 billion in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital platforms, deploying private capital for institutional and individual investors globally. Revenue comes primarily from management fees, with approximately 85% earned from... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.2%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Blue Owl Capital Inc.
About Blue Owl Capital Inc.
Blue Owl Capital reported $307.4 billion in AUM at December 31, 2025, divided across Credit ($157.8 billion), Real Assets ($80.6 billion), and GP Strategic Capital ($69.1 billion) platforms, with $187.7 billion in fee-paying AUM generating the management fee base. The company employs approximately 1,365 people globally and had approximately $28.4 billion in AUM not yet paying fees at year-end 2025, representing potential annualized management fees exceeding $326.3 million once fully deployed.
Blue Owl earns revenue primarily through management fees charged on FPAUM, with approximately 85% of management fees derived from Permanent Capital vehicles — structures with indefinite fund terms and long lock-up periods that limit ordinary redemptions and provide a more stable income base than conventional closed-end funds. The Credit platform generates fees mainly from direct lending, targeting upper-middle-market companies through BDCs, long-dated private funds, and managed accounts; Direct Lending alone accounts for $115.0 billion of the Credit platform's $157.8 billion AUM. Real Assets ($80.6 billion AUM) spans net lease ($45.9 billion), real estate credit ($17.5 billion), and digital infrastructure ($17.1 billion) strategies. GP Strategic Capital ($69.1 billion AUM) earns fees from minority equity stakes in and debt financing to large multi-product private equity and private credit firms.
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Investment advisory agreements with Blue Owl's Business Development Companies — regulated under the Investment Company Act — must renew annually following approval by each BDC's board, including a separate vote of a majority of independent directors, and any BDC may terminate its agreement without penalty on 60 days' written notice. Blue Owl has disclosed it may waive or defer fees and has entered into expense support arrangements with certain BDCs to support their target dividend payments, which may reduce net realized management fee income below contractual rates. These governance constraints mean that while Permanent Capital vehicles provide fee stability at the portfolio level, fee income from the regulated subset is subject to annual counterparty re-approval.
See also: Financial Services · Asset Management
From Blue Owl Capital Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 31, 2026Recent Developments — Blue Owl Capital Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Stock Looks Above Fair Value After A 33% Slide - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 31, 2026 negative
- NEWS Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) Stock Up 7.7% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 55/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Blue Owl earnings on deck as private credit rotation tests revenue - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS OWL Maintained by BMO Capital -- Price Target Lowered to $11.00 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Faces Earnings And Dividend Pressure, Is The Stock Below Fair Value? - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 27, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 31, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductPermanent Capital vehicles85%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 85% of our management fees were earned from Permanent Capital vehicles'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.2%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $11.63 (+9.2%), stop $9.90 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $11.63 (+9.2% upside). Analyst target $11.63 (+9.2%), stop $9.90 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $9.90.
Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.2%.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. trades at a P/E of 76.1 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.
21 analysts rate OWL, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 18 analysts publish price targets averaging $13.
What does Blue Owl Capital Inc. do?Blue Owl Capital manages $307.4 billion in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital platforms,...
Blue Owl Capital manages $307.4 billion in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital platforms, deploying private capital for institutional and individual investors globally. Revenue comes primarily from management fees, with approximately 85% earned from Permanent Capital vehicles that have indefinite terms and limited ordinary redemption requirements.