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Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%); Elevated risk factors.

Blue Owl Capital is a global alternative asset manager with $307.4 billion AUM as of December 31, 2025, deploying capital across Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital platforms on behalf of institutional and private wealth clients. Revenue comes primarily from management... Read more

$9.73+17.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#31 of 109 Asset Management
Stop $9.13Target $11.55(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$12.83+31.9%15 analysts
$11.55our TP
$9.73price
$12.83mean
$21

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%); Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%)
Elevated risk factors
Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)88.8
P/E (Fwd)8.8
Mkt Cap$13.9B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn2.7%
ROE5.2%
Rev Growth19.7%
Beta1.21
Dividend10.14%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C2.43bearish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$3-69.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductPermanent Capital vehicles85%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 85% of our management fees were earned from Permanent Capital vehicles'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
2.2
Support Resistance
2.2
Gap
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.7
Value Rank
3.0
Growth Rank
7.9
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.95Resistance $10.33

Price Targets

$9
$12
A.Upside+18.7%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OWL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%); Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $11.55 (+18.7%), stop $9.13 (−6.6%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OWL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.55 (+17.7% upside). Target $11.55 (+18.7%), stop $9.13 (−6.6%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $9.13.

What are the risks of investing in OWL?

Concentration risk — Product: Permanent Capital vehicles (85.0%); Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is OWL overvalued or undervalued?

Blue Owl Capital Inc. trades at a P/E of 88.8 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OWL?

20 analysts cover OWL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Blue Owl Capital Inc. do?Blue Owl Capital is a global alternative asset manager with $307.4 billion AUM as of December 31, 2025, deploying...

Blue Owl Capital is a global alternative asset manager with $307.4 billion AUM as of December 31, 2025, deploying capital across Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital platforms on behalf of institutional and private wealth clients. Revenue comes primarily from management fees, approximately 85% of which were earned from Permanent Capital vehicles. The company employs approximately 1,365 people globally.

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