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Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Wait for pullback to $74.78. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $81.65. Engine's entry $74.78 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: mutual funds and pooled investment vehicles (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Victory Capital Holdings manages $313.8B in AUM through 8 investment franchises and a Solutions Platform, offering mutual funds, ETFs, institutional accounts, and alternative investments globally. Revenue derives substantially from asset-based fees, with ~80% from mutual funds... Read more

$81.65+11.7% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#2 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.75%
IncomeYield2.43%(5y avg 2.71%)Payout44.04%sustainable
Entry $74.78(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $68.83Target $86.96(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$85.80+5.1%5 analysts
$86.96our TP
$81.65price
$85.80mean
$76
$95

Wait for pullback to $74.78. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $81.65. Engine's entry $74.78 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: mutual funds and pooled investment vehicles (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.28, quality 8.3/10, growth 9.8/10). Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: mutual funds and pooled investment vehicles (80.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.5
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA8.2
Profit Mgn25.8%
ROE21.7%
Rev Growth76.7%
Beta1.11
Dividend2.43%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$65-20.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductmutual funds and pooled investment vehicles80%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we generated approximately 80% of our total revenues from mutual funds and other pooled investment vehicles that we advise'
  • MEDIUMProductPioneer Investments franchise42%
    10-K Item 1: 'No Investment Franchise accounts for more than 42% of total AUM. Notably, this Investment Franchise includes three distinct teams focused on equity, fixed income, and multi-asset strategies'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved one-time performance-based restricted stock grants to key executives including CEO David Brown, CFO Michael Policarpo, EVP Tom Sipp, CLO Nina Gupta, and President Mannik Dhillon on March 13, 2026. Routine long-term incentive/retention arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $73.25Resistance $88.73

Price Targets

$69
$75
$87
A.Upside+6.5%
A.R:R-0.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.9% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VCTR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $74.78. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $81.65. Engine's entry $74.78 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: mutual funds and pooled investment vehicles (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.28, quality 8.3/10, growth 9.8/10). Target $86.96 (+6.5%), stop $68.83 (−18.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

What is the VCTR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $86.96 (+11.7% upside). Target $86.96 (+6.5%), stop $68.83 (−18.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $68.83.

What are the risks of investing in VCTR?

Concentration risk — Product: mutual funds and pooled investment vehicles (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is VCTR overvalued or undervalued?

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.5 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about VCTR?

12 analysts cover VCTR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $86.

What does Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. do?Victory Capital Holdings manages $313.8B in AUM through 8 investment franchises and a Solutions Platform, offering...

Victory Capital Holdings manages $313.8B in AUM through 8 investment franchises and a Solutions Platform, offering mutual funds, ETFs, institutional accounts, and alternative investments globally. Revenue derives substantially from asset-based fees, with ~80% from mutual funds and pooled vehicles. Pioneer Investments, the largest franchise, represents up to 42% of total AUM.

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