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Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: mutual funds and other pooled investment vehicles (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Victory Capital Holdings is a diversified global asset management firm with 13.8 billion AUM and 16.6 billion in total client assets as of December 31, 2025. It earns fee revenue from 187 investment strategies across mutual funds, ETFs, SMAs, CITs, and other vehicles distributed... Read more

$77.73+13.5% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#9 of 109 Asset Management
Entry $67.11(200-day MA)Stop $62.53Target $76.20(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1Setup A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$74.50-4.2%4 analysts
$76.20our TP
$77.73price
$74.50mean
$68
$84

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: mutual funds and other pooled investment vehicles (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $77.73 has reached target $76.20. No upside to wait for. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: mutual funds and other pooled investment vehicles (80.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.5
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn25.3%
ROE18.6%
Rev Growth61.0%
Beta1.05
Dividend2.60%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$55-29.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductmutual funds and other pooled investment vehicles80%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we generated approximately 80% of our total revenues from mutual funds and other pooled investment vehicles that we advise'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved one-time grant of performance-based restricted stock to key executives including CEO David C. Brown, President/CFO Michael D. Policarpo, and others on March 13, 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.0
Bollinger
1.7
52w Position
10.0
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
82 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $60.90Resistance $77.76

Price Targets

$63
$67
$76
A.Upside-2.0%
A.R:R-1.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VCTR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: mutual funds and other pooled investment vehicles (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $77.73 has reached target $76.20. No upside to wait for. Target $76.20 (-2.0%), stop $62.53 (−24.3%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VCTR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.20 (+13.5% upside). Target $76.20 (-2.0%), stop $62.53 (−24.3%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $62.53.

What are the risks of investing in VCTR?

Concentration risk — Product: mutual funds and other pooled investment vehicles (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.1% away).

Is VCTR overvalued or undervalued?

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.5 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VCTR?

12 analysts cover VCTR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $75.

What does Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. do?Victory Capital Holdings is a diversified global asset management firm with 13.8 billion AUM and 16.6 billion in total...

Victory Capital Holdings is a diversified global asset management firm with 13.8 billion AUM and 16.6 billion in total client assets as of December 31, 2025. It earns fee revenue from 187 investment strategies across mutual funds, ETFs, SMAs, CITs, and other vehicles distributed through institutions and intermediaries.

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