Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.1 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
- ▸Attractively valued
OWL · Why this verdict
Why Blue Owl Capital (OWL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Blue Owl Capital carries a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and 425% free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income, but a confirmed death-cross technical pattern, 24% short interest, and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 4.70 signal significant near-term downside risk from professional bearish positioning.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Blue Owl generates 1000% free cash flow relative to net income alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, the highest possible score, indicating exceptional financial health and cash generation well above reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% relative to net income for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterIn asset management, high free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income often reflects the absence of capital expenditure requirements rather than operating superiority, which is structural and may not persist if the business model shifts. | ||
Eighty-five percent of assets under management are in permanent capital vehicles, which cannot be redeemed by investors on short notice, providing highly predictable and stable fee income over the long term. Bear case | Permanent capital as a percentage of total assets under management remains above 75% and management fee revenue grows by at least 10% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPermanent capital vehicle performance issues or regulatory changes to alternative investment fund structures could impair future fundraising, limiting the ability to replenish the capital base as existing vehicles mature. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed death-cross pattern with the 200-day moving average sloping down 9.0% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume, the steepest moving average decline and the clearest distribution signal in the dataset. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 9 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDeath-cross signals in high-quality asset managers with strong fee income can produce false negatives; the underlying business fundamentals may recover faster than the technical pattern suggests. | ||
Short interest is 24% of float and the put-to-call ratio is 4.70, both extremely elevated, indicating a large cohort of professional investors have positioned for further price declines in Blue Owl Capital. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 15% of float within 6 months as the bear thesis fails to materialize and short sellers are forced to cover. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest combined with a death cross and 24% short float represents the highest-conviction bearish combination in this dataset and often precedes further price declines before any squeeze materializes. | ||
Blue Owl generates 1000% free cash flow relative to net income alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, the highest possible score, indicating exceptional financial health and cash generation well above reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% relative to net income for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterIn asset management, high free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income often reflects the absence of capital expenditure requirements rather than operating superiority, which is structural and may not persist if the business model shifts.
Eighty-five percent of assets under management are in permanent capital vehicles, which cannot be redeemed by investors on short notice, providing highly predictable and stable fee income over the long term.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Permanent capital as a percentage of total assets under management remains above 75% and management fee revenue grows by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
CounterPermanent capital vehicle performance issues or regulatory changes to alternative investment fund structures could impair future fundraising, limiting the ability to replenish the capital base as existing vehicles mature.
The stock is in a confirmed death-cross pattern with the 200-day moving average sloping down 9.0% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume, the steepest moving average decline and the clearest distribution signal in the dataset.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 9 months.
CounterDeath-cross signals in high-quality asset managers with strong fee income can produce false negatives; the underlying business fundamentals may recover faster than the technical pattern suggests.
Short interest is 24% of float and the put-to-call ratio is 4.70, both extremely elevated, indicating a large cohort of professional investors have positioned for further price declines in Blue Owl Capital.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% of float within 6 months as the bear thesis fails to materialize and short sellers are forced to cover.
CounterHigh short interest combined with a death cross and 24% short float represents the highest-conviction bearish combination in this dataset and often precedes further price declines before any squeeze materializes.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 7.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
6.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.2 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 2.3 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.5 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 4.8 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 6.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 22%
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Above max pain $3
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 9 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:9d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.36
Upside
+15.6%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -52% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.4; weakest: Technical at 2.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.4, Value at 7.1, and Quality at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Momentum at 3.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Permanent Capital Concentration
Trip ifManagement fee revenue declines by more than 15% year-over-year in any reporting period.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $8.00 and the 200-day moving average slope remains below negative 5% for 8 or more consecutive weeks.
- P4High Short Interest Bearish Positioning
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30% of float or put-to-call ratio rises above 6.0.