Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.2 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
OWL · Why this verdict
Why Blue Owl Capital (OWL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Blue Owl generates 1000% free cash flow relative to net income alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, the highest possible score, indicating exceptional financial health and cash generation well above reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% relative to net income for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterIn asset management, high free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income often reflects the absence of capital expenditure requirements rather than operating superiority, which is structural and may not persist if the business model shifts. | ||
Eighty-five percent of assets under management are in permanent capital vehicles, which cannot be redeemed by investors on short notice, providing highly predictable and stable fee income over the long term. Bear case | Permanent capital as a percentage of total assets under management remains above 75% and management fee revenue grows by at least 10% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPermanent capital vehicle performance issues or regulatory changes to alternative investment fund structures could impair future fundraising, limiting the ability to replenish the capital base as existing vehicles mature. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed death-cross pattern with the 200-day moving average sloping down 9.0% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume, the steepest moving average decline and the clearest distribution signal in the dataset. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 9 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath-cross signals in high-quality asset managers with strong fee income can produce false negatives; the underlying business fundamentals may recover faster than the technical pattern suggests. | ||
Short interest is 24% of float and the put-to-call ratio is 4.70, both extremely elevated, indicating a large cohort of professional investors have positioned for further price declines in Blue Owl Capital. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 15% of float within 6 months as the bear thesis fails to materialize and short sellers are forced to cover. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest combined with a death cross and 24% short float represents the highest-conviction bearish combination in this dataset and often precedes further price declines before any squeeze materializes. | ||
Blue Owl generates 1000% free cash flow relative to net income alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, the highest possible score, indicating exceptional financial health and cash generation well above reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% relative to net income for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterIn asset management, high free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income often reflects the absence of capital expenditure requirements rather than operating superiority, which is structural and may not persist if the business model shifts.
Eighty-five percent of assets under management are in permanent capital vehicles, which cannot be redeemed by investors on short notice, providing highly predictable and stable fee income over the long term.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Permanent capital as a percentage of total assets under management remains above 75% and management fee revenue grows by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
CounterPermanent capital vehicle performance issues or regulatory changes to alternative investment fund structures could impair future fundraising, limiting the ability to replenish the capital base as existing vehicles mature.
The stock is in a confirmed death-cross pattern with the 200-day moving average sloping down 9.0% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume, the steepest moving average decline and the clearest distribution signal in the dataset.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 9 months.
CounterDeath-cross signals in high-quality asset managers with strong fee income can produce false negatives; the underlying business fundamentals may recover faster than the technical pattern suggests.
Short interest is 24% of float and the put-to-call ratio is 4.70, both extremely elevated, indicating a large cohort of professional investors have positioned for further price declines in Blue Owl Capital.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% of float within 6 months as the bear thesis fails to materialize and short sellers are forced to cover.
CounterHigh short interest combined with a death cross and 24% short float represents the highest-conviction bearish combination in this dataset and often precedes further price declines before any squeeze materializes.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Blue Owl Capital carries a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and 425% free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income, but a confirmed death-cross technical pattern, 24% short interest, and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 4.70 signal significant near-term downside risk from professional bearish positioning.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 1.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.64 (n=4)
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (6.5%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| put call | 1.3 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 6.5 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 25%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.80
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.78
Upside
+27.4%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -54% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.78 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Quality at 6.6, and Sentiment at 6.1; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2, Peer rank at 3.4, and Technical at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Permanent Capital Concentration
Trip ifManagement fee revenue declines by more than 15% year-over-year in any reporting period.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $8.00 and the 200-day moving average slope remains below negative 5% for 8 or more consecutive weeks.
- P4High Short Interest Bearish Positioning
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30% of float or put-to-call ratio rises above 6.0.