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TPG Inc. (TPG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.27 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

TPG is a global alternative asset manager with $303 billion AUM across six platforms: Capital (private equity, $91B), Growth ($32B), Impact ($31B), Credit ($93B), Real Estate ($38B), and Market Solutions ($17B). Revenue is earned through management fees based on committed or... Read more

$40.27+25.5% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#84 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.56%Payout895.65%at-risk
Stop $39.02Target $50.52(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$56.13+39.4%15 analysts
$50.52our TP
$40.27price
$56.13mean
$75

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.27 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — TPG Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)175.1
P/E (Fwd)11.3
Mkt Cap$15.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn4.2%
ROE10.8%
Rev Growth-56.8%
Beta1.46
Dividend5.56%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$30-25.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOW
    Admiral William H. McRaven appointed independent director effective May 1, 2026, as part of TPG's long-term governance transition to majority-independent board. He will serve on Compensation and Conflicts Committees.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.1
Quality Rank
3.1
Value Rank
3.2
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $40.23Resistance $46.27

Price Targets

$39
$51
A.Upside+25.5%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.27 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $39.02. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TPG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.52 (+25.5% upside). Prior stop was $39.02. Stop-loss: $39.02.

What are the risks of investing in TPG?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TPG overvalued or undervalued?

TPG Inc. trades at a P/E of 175.1 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TPG?

19 analysts cover TPG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $56.

What does TPG Inc. do?TPG is a global alternative asset manager with $303 billion AUM across six platforms: Capital (private equity, $91B),...

TPG is a global alternative asset manager with $303 billion AUM across six platforms: Capital (private equity, $91B), Growth ($32B), Impact ($31B), Credit ($93B), Real Estate ($38B), and Market Solutions ($17B). Revenue is earned through management fees based on committed or invested capital and performance allocations from fund returns. AUM grew 166% from 2021 to 2025, including through acquisitions of Angelo Gordon and Peppertree.

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