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TPGTPG Inc.Sell5.1·$42.91+3.57%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

TPG Inc. is an alternative asset manager with analyst upside of 29% and a recovering technical setup after a death cross, but has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters — including a -107.76% miss when it reported a loss instead of the expected gain — raising serious questions about earnings visibility and management guidance accuracy.

Thesis pillars

  • Consecutive Earnings Misses SeverityStable
  • Recovery Setup With Analyst SupportStable
  • Yield Trap Dividend RiskStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

TPG Inc. (TPG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $42.91: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

TPG manages $303.0 billion in alternative assets across private equity, credit, and real estate, organized in six platforms as of December 31, 2025, with Credit ($93.1 billion AUM) and Capital ($90.9 billion AUM) as the two largest. The firm earns management fees plus... Read more

$42.91+18.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#181 of 240 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.41%Payout895.65%at-risk
Stop $39.61Target $50.40(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$56.00+30.5%15 analysts
$50.40our TP
$42.91price
$56.00mean
$75

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $42.91: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About TPG Inc.

About TPG Inc.

TPG Inc. managed $303.0 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2025, up 166.4% from $113.6 billion in 2021, driven by organic fundraising, the November 2023 acquisition of Angelo Gordon, and the July 2025 acquisition of Peppertree. Credit is the largest platform at $93.1 billion in AUM, followed by Capital at $90.9 billion. The firm employed more than 1,900 people, including approximately 690 investment and operations professionals, across offices in 16 countries.

TPG earns revenue primarily through management fees—which the 10-K identifies as the largest income component—plus performance allocations, transaction fees, incentive fees, and investment income. Management fees are generally based on committed or invested capital, making revenue sensitive to fundraising pace and investment deployment timing. The firm's six platforms—Capital (large-scale private equity buyouts), Growth (growth equity and middle market), Impact (societal-return investing), Credit (corporate and asset-backed lending), Real Estate (equity and credit across three geographies), and Market Solutions (GP-led secondaries and co-investments)—each maintain multiple fund generations, creating staggered fee ramp-down risk as older investment periods expire. The Credit platform encompasses direct lending, CLOs, asset-based finance, and structured credit, with significant capacity inherited from the Angelo Gordon acquisition. Performance allocations are subject to clawback provisions if later fund returns reverse earlier gains, and certain fund structures include key person provisions that give limited partners the right to suspend commitment periods or replace the general partner if named investment professionals depart or commit misconduct.

Show full overview

TPG's management fee trajectory depends on raising successor funds before predecessor commitment periods expire: when an investment period closes, fees ramp down, and a late or undersized successor close reduces revenue. Institutional investors are increasingly consolidating alternative asset relationships with fewer managers and seeking separately managed accounts at reduced fees, which could compress successor-fund management fee rates relative to historical terms. The firm noted that its founder succession process and the ongoing transition to a majority independent board of directors may affect investor confidence in governance stability. In April 2026, the Board expanded from 13 to 14 members with the appointment of Admiral William H. McRaven as an independent director, advancing the previously disclosed corporate governance transition.

See also: Financial Services · Asset Management

From TPG Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-56.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -36.3%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)180.1
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$15.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn4.2%
ROE10.8%
Rev Growth-56.8%
Beta1.43
Dividend5.41%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish
IV75%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOW
    On April 8, 2026, TPG Inc.'s Board expanded from 13 to 14 members and appointed Admiral William H. McRaven as an independent director, effective May 1, 2026. McRaven will serve on the Compensation and Conflicts Committees as part of TPG's disclosed transition to a majority independent board. No officer departure disclosed.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.1
Quality Rank
3.4
Value Rank
3.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.4
Bollinger
3.2
Support Resistance
4.0
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.1>=5.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $38.46Resistance $45.33

Price Targets

$40
$50
A.Upside+17.5%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts19
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$56

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $42.91: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $39.61. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TPG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.40 (+18.3% upside). Prior stop was $39.61. Stop-loss: $39.61.

What are the risks of investing in TPG?

Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-56.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -36.3%).

Is TPG overvalued or undervalued?

TPG Inc. trades at a P/E of 180.1 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TPG?

19 analysts cover TPG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $56.

What does TPG Inc. do?TPG manages $303.0 billion in alternative assets across private equity, credit, and real estate, organized in six...

TPG manages $303.0 billion in alternative assets across private equity, credit, and real estate, organized in six platforms as of December 31, 2025, with Credit ($93.1 billion AUM) and Capital ($90.9 billion AUM) as the two largest. The firm earns management fees plus performance allocations, employing more than 1,900 people across offices in 16 countries. AUM expanded 166% from $113.6 billion in 2021 through organic fundraising and the Angelo Gordon and Peppertree acquisitions.

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