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NTAPNetApp, Inc.Sell5.5·$161.61+0.71%
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NetApp, Inc. (NTAP) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $161.61 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5.

NetApp provides enterprise data infrastructure—storage hardware, software, and cloud services—through Hybrid Cloud (on-premises and private cloud storage) and Public Cloud (native cloud storage on AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud) segments. Sales through indirect channel partners... Read more

$161.61+16.9% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#42 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.09%
IncomeYield1.29%(5y avg 2.29%)Payout32.76%sustainable
Stop $150.30Target $188.97(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$171.75+6.3%16 analysts
$188.97our TP
$161.61price
$171.75mean
$117
$200

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $161.61 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 2, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.5
P/E (Fwd)16.4
Mkt Cap$31.7B
EV/EBITDA16.4
Profit Mgn18.4%
ROE106.7%
Rev Growth12.5%
Beta1.43
Dividend1.29%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.36bearish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$280+73.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerArrow Electronics21%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales to customers Arrow Electronics, Inc. and TD Synnex Corporation accounted for 21% and 24% of our net revenues, respectively, in fiscal 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerTD Synnex Corporation24%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales to customers Arrow Electronics, Inc. and TD Synnex Corporation accounted for 21% and 24% of our net revenues, respectively, in fiscal 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $117.54Resistance $192.83

Price Targets

$150
$189
A.Upside+16.9%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.4% upside)
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-02 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTAP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $161.61 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $150.30. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the NTAP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $188.97 (+16.9% upside). Prior stop was $150.30. Stop-loss: $150.30.

What are the risks of investing in NTAP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is NTAP overvalued or undervalued?

NetApp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.5 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NTAP?

28 analysts cover NTAP with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $172.

What does NetApp, Inc. do?NetApp provides enterprise data infrastructure—storage hardware, software, and cloud services—through Hybrid Cloud...

NetApp provides enterprise data infrastructure—storage hardware, software, and cloud services—through Hybrid Cloud (on-premises and private cloud storage) and Public Cloud (native cloud storage on AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud) segments. Sales through indirect channel partners represented 78% of net revenues in fiscal 2025. Arrow Electronics (21%) and TD Synnex Corporation (24%) together accounted for nearly half of net revenues.

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