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NTAPNetApp, Inc.Sell5.8·$154.29-1.34%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NetApp is a high-quality infrastructure software company with a return on equity of 107%, a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, and a wide economic moat, but is currently experiencing temporary negative price momentum with a confirmed momentum gate failure and a negative asymmetry ratio, making timing the entry the primary challenge.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Roe Wide MoatStable
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Momentum Gate Failure DistributionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

NetApp, Inc. (NTAP) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $154.29 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5.

NetApp provides data storage systems, ONTAP data management software, and cloud-native storage services in two segments — Hybrid Cloud and Public Cloud — with native integrations on AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. Two major customers accounted for 43% of net revenues in... Read more

$154.29+2.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#31 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.29%
IncomeYield1.35%(5y avg 2.29%)Payout32.76%sustainable
Stop $144.79Target $158.12(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$175.69+13.9%16 analysts
$158.12our TP
$154.29price
$175.69mean
$137
$200

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $154.29 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About NetApp, Inc.

About NetApp, Inc.

Two of NetApp's major customers accounted for 43% of net revenues in fiscal 2026, in a company that reported R&D expenses of $991 million that year and maintained approximately 5,000 sales and marketing personnel across offices in over 20 countries. NetApp's two reporting segments are Hybrid Cloud (on-premises hardware, ONTAP software, and support services) and Public Cloud (cloud-native storage as-a-service on AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud).

NetApp earns revenue through hardware and software product sales, long-term support contracts, and cloud subscription services. ONTAP software — the company's foundational data management platform — underpins both segments, from on-premises all-flash arrays to native cloud storage offerings embedded in the major hyperscalers under brands including Azure NetApp Files, Amazon FSx for NetApp ONTAP, and Google Cloud NetApp Volumes. The majority of net revenues in fiscal 2026 came through indirect channels including value-added resellers, systems integrators, distributors, OEMs, and public cloud providers. Gross margins faced component cost pressure in the second half of fiscal 2026 from memory and other component inflation. In fiscal 2025, NetApp divested Spot by NetApp to Flexera Software LLC. Competition comes from full-stack vendors with broad infrastructure portfolios and from cloud service providers offering native storage consumption models without capital expenditure.

Show full overview

The transition to consumption-based models creates a revenue timing mismatch that the 10-K explicitly flags: revenue from traditional hardware and software purchases is recognized at delivery, while consumption-model revenue — from cloud storage subscriptions and the on-premises Keystone storage-as-a-service offering — is recognized ratably over the contract term. If enterprise buying shifts toward these models faster than forecast, reported revenue could decline even with stable bookings, subject to the speed of mix shift. The 10-K also discloses restructuring plans announced in fiscal 2024, fiscal 2025, and fiscal 2026, indicating multiple rounds of cost resets tied to navigating these demand transitions.

See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure

From NetApp, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-03
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 2, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.0), Material insider selling (10 sells, 0.03% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.3
P/E (Fwd)15.7
Mkt Cap$30.2B
EV/EBITDA15.6
Profit Mgn18.4%
ROE106.7%
Rev Growth12.5%
Beta1.43
Dividend1.35%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$280+81.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertwo major customers43%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales to two of our major customers accounted for 43% of our net revenues in fiscal 2026'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $149.27Resistance $180.00

Price Targets

$145
$158
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.6% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-02 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTAP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $154.29 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $144.79. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NTAP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $158.12 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $144.79. Stop-loss: $144.79.

What are the risks of investing in NTAP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.0), Material insider selling (10 sells, 0.03% of cap).

Is NTAP overvalued or undervalued?

NetApp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.3 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NTAP?

28 analysts cover NTAP with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $176.

What does NetApp, Inc. do?NetApp provides data storage systems, ONTAP data management software, and cloud-native storage services in two segments...

NetApp provides data storage systems, ONTAP data management software, and cloud-native storage services in two segments — Hybrid Cloud and Public Cloud — with native integrations on AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. Two major customers accounted for 43% of net revenues in fiscal 2026; the company spent $991 million on R&D that year.

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